3 Months of fever in the West: natural history (Asia, Europe) of a new virus?

I am thankful to the many companions of the road (more than 26!), who at one time or another have contributed, under my direction, to the development of this website.

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides  a first-of-the-art  understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît  Rossignol,Gilles  Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created  for more than 100 days, are available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).

I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)


I.1 France D.Day – 27 days (cf incubation of the disease – 20 days) and Europe:

The dynamics of indicators  still green in France (200 k historical cases since the  beginning):)  : 

– New cases, Current Hospitalizations, Resuscitation  Beds: note that only 1053  resuscitation beds are currently occupied (peak around 7000), and that the number of hospitalizations continues to  increase  (12,461 versus / more than 25,000 at the peak and only 39 new hospitalizations yesterday).- 3 vigilance zones (IDF, Mayotte ,  Guyana / proximity to Brazil)

I.2 Europe: no second wave in countries who lifted restrictions before France

Note that some countries (Greece, Finland, Ireland…) declare certain results only on a weekly basis.

I.3 World – size equation : still around 115k daily new cases reported

Prevalence World: active cases  declared  –  Megapoles  “connects”

Prevalence Top 10 Countries: The USA on set  and Latin America in the epidemic  phase; Subcontinent  Indian and Iran, a watch.

New daily cases “Top10” country: always  Brazil and USA (20k cases / jr),…. let’s monitor the Indian subcontinent.


II. World:

Latin America still in the epidemic phase, trend slowdown (new cases and daily deaths)  in  the USA. 

Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.

II.1 Overall prevalence: cf minute analysis

II.2 IMPACT: 1115 000  new cases detected yesterday

III. Detail space  time  vision:  

III.1 Cases declared:

III.2 In terms of stated cases   (attention “dependent test”): The  Americas will be the most  impacted in the long run!

III.3 In terms of mortality, Brazil is also in the head:

The West is the first victim, to  date, with about 3/4 of the 400,000  victims:  USA (30%)- UK/Italy/France (10%) –  Rest of EU (15%)

III.4 For the US, a dynamic that allows us to envisage an end to the crisis in a few weeks (M3-4?):

IV. COVID FLOW:  Argentina

Our “Covidminute” team provides you with the “Covidflow” interactive web pags (accessible on the link below), displaying multiple metrics on the epidemic for over 200 countries as well as the American states.


Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective” thanks to:

o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed  Fadel, Dr.  Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,

o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)

o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.

o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”

o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation

If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development

computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).

Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you