I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – Hospitalizations – At J7 of deconfinment,the number of new cases is still falling
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
I.3 France – Ability to absorb a potential “2nd wave”
I.4 Europe: the countries that have deconfait before us have not suffered a second wave
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases):
Nearly 50 “Wuhan” active, and 2 households to monitor Latin America (young population) and Russia (older population)
I.6 World: Brazil and Latin America in epidemic phase
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
1.8 Results Indicators: Evolutionary Figures Over Time (cf USA)
II. Analysis 360°
II.A Chloroquine: not enough to make a new “Dreyfus Affair”, but our team confirms its position.
1. Historically: a molecule known for 70 years
It is a drug known for more than 50 years (malaria and immune pathologies such as lupus or rheumatoid arthritis), and the result is no longer necessary to carry out the long studies of marketing (kinetics, animal toxicity, side effects on humans … )
2. At the fundamental level, a double action:
– Antiviral: in recent years its in vitro and in vivo action has been demonstrated (clinical studies are underway in the framework of Covid).
– Immuno Modulator: we know that in the context of the Covid, there is usually a “cytokinic storm” around S1that causes patients to decompensate. It is this action that justifies the use of this molecule, for some patients lupic or with rheumatoid arthritis. Moreover,an APHP team, has just produced encouraging results inthis type of immuno-regulatory molecule (Tocilizumab) , une équipe
3. At clinical level: after 2 months, classic “expert versus expert” debate, without irrefutable proof, one way or the other:
3.1 Those who wonder: Chinese study published yesterday by the BMJ (British Medical Journal) of Professor Xie Qing (Rui Jin Hospital in Shanghai),
- Evaluation of 150 Cs between February 11 and March 20, with 2 groups: hydroxychloroquine 1.2g/day for 3 days and 0.8g after, versus standard control group. Moderate cases receiving 2 weeks of treatment, while more serious cases received 3 weeks.
- Results – Clinical efficacy: slightly in favour of the first group with 85% of patients tested C (-) a J19, compared to 81% at J21 for thecontrol groupe.
- Results – side effect (cf risk/benefit): no major side effects (advanced twist-type rhythm effect) on Chinese patients; 12% transient diarrhea in the first group, compared to 8% in the second group.
3.2 Comments: “apple with apples” and experts versus experts
Higher dosage recommended by the Raoult team, and no added azithromycin.
According to the Covexit website, more than 50 scientific references support the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, on reducing the length of hospital stay, for example.
3.3 To get an objective idea, the need for a multi-center, double-blind randomized trial to give yourself more time…
4. At the regulatory level in the West:
- TheEuropean Discovery test, rather, ends in failure, because only France and Luxembourg have “played the game”.
- Medical regulatory bodies in France and the USA (FDA) do not recommend it in common practice.
- Discussion on itsefficiency at the curative level (stage, dose,time…), see preventive (cf below)
5. Nevertheless, in the meantime, 3 objective elements in favour of his interest in the Covid:
- U.S. President Trump (normally well-informed), has announced thathe has been takingpre-emptive action for the past two weeks (see 2 cases in the White House).
- Many colleagues, as individuals, would take it in case of initial symptomatology and with the usual precautions (ECG…)
- Many countries in Europe (Portugal…) , and outside Europe (China, Russia, Morocco,Turkey…) use it massively, and seem very satisfied in terms of risk/benefit. Systematic use at an early stage of the pathology, under medical supervision and for a short period of time. Of course, this is in addition to the other measures (“barrier”).
6. In total, given these 5 elements, and seen from the outside, our team of clinicians suggest:
– Taking into account the risk/benefit of the molecule, and a debate of experts not decided at the time actuelle: “leave a chance to the product” with possibility of short treatment, at an early stage and in a medical setting (telemedicine).
– At the same time “contradictory” and multi-center clinical studies must continue, in order to be fixed with certain certainties.
-Also a retrospective study (it goes fast and proves inexpensive) in Europe on Lupus patients on chloroquine treatment (this is not the majority but we can find them!), and compare them to a control group (age, sex… ).
II.B FRANCE: Indicators are encouraging (see minute analysis)
1/ Protecting fragile people: age above all (grosso modo:75% of mortality) focuses on 70-75 years.
France region: “space-time” evolution, indicators to green.
All regional charts and curves on the site: www.covidminute.com,
In the section “Charts”
II.C Europe
A historic East-West gradient
Deconfinement: 3 types of countries
Ⅱ. D WORLD: America, Russia and the Middle East in epidemic phase; stabilization in Europe
With the contributions of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane, and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary fromcountry to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2.6 million active cases confirmed for observation
Ⅱ. D.1.1 Vision time:
- Historical vision: historical cases: More than 4.5 million reported cases (and more than 300k deaths reported)
Ⅱ. D.1.2Vision Space: The Americas in epidemic phase
- World: cf “minute analysis”
- Continent: America (54%) – EUR (21%) – Russia (10%) – Middle East
- Top 10 countries
United States 1.10 M (yesterday 1.09 M)
Russia 218k (yesterday 212k)
United Kingdom 200k? (Yesterday 199k?)
Brazil 137k (yesterday 131k)
France 90k (yesterday 91k)
Italy 67k (yesterday 68k)
Peru 62k (yesterday 61k)
India 58k (yesterday 56k)
Spain 54k (yesterday 54k)
Netherlands 37k? (Yesterday 38k?)
Turkey 35k (yesterday 35k)
Ⅱ. D.2 Incidence: 86,000 new cases detected yesterday
Timeline: timeview
By continent: Latin America (27% and likely under reporting) – USA(26%) – Russia (12%) – Middle East (12%) – Europe
By country: cf minute analysis.
United States 21k (21k yesterday)
Brazil 13k (8k yesterday)
Russia 9k (10k yesterday)
India 5k (5k yesterday)
United Kingdom 3k (4k yesterday)
Peru 3k (4k yesterday)
Saudi Arabia 3k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Italy, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Egypt: 1 to 2k
III. A virus that is difficult to predict: “time-space” picture
You can find multiple data on the site: www.covidminute.com in the resources section.
WEEK: Coming soon
- Brazil: in epidemic phase
- Masks: the key to success
- Country Sociology: Explaining CovidScore’s notes
- Understanding Japan’s success
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get
Protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
O The entire “Medical” team of “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
O The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
O The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
O All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
O Also we thank the Paul Bennetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
Computer science (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team, even though theShanghai-based party, will be delighted to welcome you
