Covid – “Living with”: half marathon or marathon?

The Covid in the United States is not yet stabilized (36 k new today! … Not visible on this graph.)

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides  a first-of-the-art  understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît  Rossignol,Gilles  Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created  for more than 100 days, are available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (


1 France : The dynamics of green indicators, but knowing how to quickly neutralize any potential focus

The number of new C + cases detected remains stable (around 500 1000 / day – see dependent tests!) And also some clusters to be recognized quickly.

48 new admissions yesterday (116 4d ago)

Hospitalization: 9823 C + (10.267 4 days ago & peak at 32.300 2 months ago 14/5)

Resuscitation 715 C + (772 4d ago)

I.2 Europe: no second wave, but also clusters (slaughterhouse in Germany…).

The virus continues to circulate: as a result, caution in certain risky environments (cruising, concert & choir, worship, slaughterhouse, etc.). In particular, either by poor ventilation, or by the risk of “postillions”, or by temperature …


Still the Beijing “cluster”, which has generated radical measures still underway, in the capital with many “frozen” points (school, economic activity, leisure,), impacting the population.

I.4 World – 8 Million historical cases

“Warming up” with a current prevalence of 3.5M of official cases, and a record incidence of 183 k new cases declared yesterday (see more wide spread tests…)

4.1 Prevalence C (+)  West – 80% of cases currently declared
4.1.1  Geographic  Vision:  
Source John Hopkins

3.5 M de cas actuel déclarés dont 80% en Occident :

1US :  35% (1,25M)

2 Europe : 25% (0,85M)

3 Amérique Centrale et Latine : 20% (0,7M)

4 Asie (India Middle East) : 18%. (0.6M)

5 Afrique : 2% (0,1M)  

4.1.2   Timeline:

Brazil not yet on the plateau

4.1.3 Overall Mortality :

350 k deaths officially registered to date, of which 80% in the West: 1USA 125k 2 Brazil 50k 3 United Kingdom: 40k…)

4.2 Incidence:

Number of new day cases at its highest historical level (increasing availability of tests …): 183 k officially declared at noon today (with oscillation between 150-183 k new day cases)

4.2.1 Chronological view

4.2.2 Geographic Vision – USA and Brazil: same fight with 20,000 new daily cases officially declared for almost a month (Brazil)

4.2.3 Time-space vision by country:

5 Latin America

Be careful not to interpret any figure too quickly from the tests (under equipment, dependent operator, etc.)

1 OVERALL VISION: 60% of cases in Brazil and 15% in Peru

5.2 Brazil

2.1 More than 50% of new cases

2.2 Still in the epidemic phase:

2.3 Adults more affected than elsewhere: According to our sources, Brazil has a higher case fatality rate than the standards observed in other countries, for younger populations.

3 / CARIBBEAN: Caribbean Islands: relatively spared by the distance and their low urban density, like the West Indies (no indigenous patients in intensive care, and some transfers from Guyana)

4 / CURRENT DYNAMICS: Top 3 countries a priori in epidemic control phase: Paraguay, Peru, Chile

All the necessary data are available on:, as well as the entire iconographic database and the Covidflow tool (all information by country or state).


Thursday: the point in the USA

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective” thanks to:

o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed  Fadel, Dr.  Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,

o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)

o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.

o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”

o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation

If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development

computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (

Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you