Covid, model of “Silver pathology” for the “Silver economy”

Protect our seniors and our Ephad  (75% of mortality  mortalité  is distributed  safely  the 75euros)  ….

We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries…) simply ask, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us..

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):“every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)

All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available to you on our site and you can download a large part of them. (

I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)

I.1 France – after 48 days of confinement, a favorable but slow dynamic  (still  close to  1000 new hospitalizations/day)

France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C+)

I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag

I.3 France – Forecast: resuscitation beds available (at stake from 16 May)

C beds (up) fall below 3000, for a maximum capacity  of about 9000 beds.

Pos-disconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (J7 with an upsurge to be expected around 16 May), and the influx of patients C (-) (around 3200 out of 7183 occupied beds)

I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.

Note that in France, ephad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.

I.5 Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases): Nearly  1 Active Cases  Reported  Safe  2 in the US (1Million/2.3M)

I.6 World: Always read  from  . 88,000 new cases yesterday in Russia and Brazil

I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed

Comparative international results of “country strategies”

Indicator certainly not perfect (because of the tests, population density, the median age of the country …) but available, to assess the impact of “country” strategies.

Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (see Finland or Australia with low population density versus Singapore or New York)

1.8 “What’s Up”

Technology: A Chinese vaccine (PiCoVacc) from the Sinovac Biotech  Society in Beijing, tests  positively in animals(efficacy  at 3 weeks). We’ll  be back on it soon.

Some projections would suggest  that the classic “12-week historical bar” would apply to the Covid  dissémination (official release beginning   in  March) … which  would lead us to an end to the epidemic at the end of May. Nevertheless, let us remain  néanmoins  cautious, with the  debates:  “Experts versus experts”

II. 360-degree analysis

With the Collaboration of Dr. Bachir Athmani and Carole Gabay

Ⅱ. A Pathology that primarily decomposes  seniors, their organizations, and their countries

Ⅱ. A.1 The 75 (+)  account for  75% of the victims

Especially as man, and associated polypathologies

A large proportion of the deaths observed have, in fact, only anticipated the end of life of the individuals concerned by a few months (a catalyst-type virus of decompensation rather than a direct cause).


Ⅱ. A.2 Ephad – High-risk structures:  25% of carers C (up), 20% of residents C (up) and 2% of residents who have died:

As the table shows:

-C:72K (residentsrésidents  in “retirement  homes”) or  18% of  residents

– Deaths:  13,000  deaths  come from  residents  in ESMS, or 2% of  residents..

– 50% of  deaths  (38% in Ephad type structure and 12%  in  Hôpitalhospital.)

Note for prevention during the deconfinement  that 25% of health care workers are C

Ⅱ. A.3 At the Country level: The  “Old” and “Western” countries are on the  front  line

An image is worth 1000 words:  in terms of  mortality, young countries such as Africa, India,  Indonesia,Philippine… have so far  présent  been  spared

This map we have selected  is  extremely telling:  

Ⅱ. A.4 Some questions and nuances:

Note this Asian peculiarity:  the elderly  âgées find themselves “protected”  above all by the family environment and much more rarely by a structure  (beginningdébut  of implantation as  in  Singapore theWestor  only that  structural), have avoidedéviter infection rates of around 20% as encounters in  structures  type Ephad.

  • Japan: The country of centenarians is  extremely classy  in terms of  prevention (CovidScore  green, more than a month ago) and  result   (mortalitymortalité/M of inhabitant has 7 versus more than 300 for Europe:   700  deaths per 100 million inhabitants).). This is also due to the “3M3T” measures that are being undertaken  very  quickly.
  • China: Note thatin Shanghai or   Beijing,  where the age  pyramids meet European standards, the number of  deaths  has been very  low (less than 500), because the  preventive measures have  been  drastic. avérés
  • Brazil, which I know well, is a country to follow  in a particular way, because it is a  mixed:  demographic, climatic,  social and  façon cultural. Will  he follow in the  end an  evolution of Western or  Oriental ore  African  type? … .

Ⅱ. B Europe: the countries that have deconfinated

Ⅱ. C France – a  J47  containment  assessment: Positive dynamics, but a France has 2 speeds for  deconfinment

Ⅱ.C.1 Scissor effect but tray still  high  with 833 admissions  daily:  

Source Le Monde.

Ⅱ. C.2 Preparation for deconfinement – departmental vision: 27 departments still in red and gradient East-West and North-South

Departmental vision of combinations of the two factors: case density and available resuscitation beds  (red: 2 negative indicators – orange 1 indicator – green: 2 positive indicators)

Source France Info
Ⅱ.C.3 Preparation  for  deconfinement:   Regional analysis:

 Ⅱ. D WORLD: the 4 million reported cases crossed (240k official victims)

With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.

Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.

Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: The 1 million confirmed active cases crossed in the US

(/ 2.3M cases currently reported) active cases confirmed under observation

By continent

Epidemic growth since January 1: about 4 million historical cumulative cases

Source: John Hopkins University

Geographical vision:  5 households – North and South America,  Europe, Middle East, Russia

Source: John Hopkins University

By continent:LatinAmerica  and Russia in  epidemic phase

Top 10 countries: full country table  (time /space)  on:  www.

United States 998k (yesterday 977k)
United Kingdom 176k i (yesterday 171k)
Russia 152k (yesterday 143k)
Italy 90k (yesterday 92k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Brazil 75k (yesterday 68k)
Spain 67k (yesterday 68k)
Turkey 47k (yesterday 50k)
Peru 39k (yesterday 36k)
India 38k (yesterday 36k)
Netherlands 36k (yesterday 36k)

Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 92,000 new cases detected yesterday

Depending on the weather:

Title: Impact of Reported Cases / World: Evolution Since the Beginning of the Epidemic


By continent: soon more new cases in Russia than in Europe

By country

USA 27k (19k yesterday)
Russia  11k (11k yesterday)

Brazil 8k (11k yesterday)

Uk 6k (6k yesterday)
Peru 4k (4k yesterday)

India 3k (4kyesterday)

Spain 3k (3k yesterday)

France 1k (4k yesterday)

Pakistan, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab  Emirates, Bangladesh,Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, Ghana, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador: 1 to 2k

All the tables of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website:, in the “Resources” section.


  • What’s new in China
  • Safe map of thestate of the countries that have  deconfinated  in Asia

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and nursing staff)

… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

  • “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
    • The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb,) who are enabling this project to exist,
    • The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
    • The whole “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
    • All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
    • We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
  • If you feel like a patron or partner to fund IT development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (
  • Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!