Let’s make no mistake about fighting, Economic Health is now… vital
Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international healthand health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than 100 days, and gives a preview of the elements of understanding on its “country and regions analysis” and the forecasting suites(experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mailbelow): “ttoute success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca… )
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).).
Don’t hesitate to pick us up and broadcast and just don’t forget to mention us (thank you).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.A France – Deconfinement. Day 6:
Let us remain vigilant but confident as the number of cases reported yesterday drops (942/1026 watch) and in hospitals.
I.B Vision time:
we follow Italy with 10 days lag (balance will probably be similar to that of our neighbors)
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.C France – Post-deconfinement forecast:
resuscitation beds available – the issue from 16 May: the curative system will have a hard time with a “second wave” C () especially as the C (-) gradually return
I.D Europe: a 3-speed Europe: pic past (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is inre-lity stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.E Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases): More than 50 Wuhan in 5 Continents
Active households: More new cases in South America (with “testing” biases) than in the US
I.G World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individus: 3 levels observed: The USA passes into the leading group.
II. 360-degree analysis
Ⅱ. A Video today (available tonight), to take a global view at J100, to avoid being the “nose on the handlebars”: 4 synthetic elements of the last 3 months.
I share with you some excerpts with 4 essential messages:
II.A.1 At the scientific level : turbo-acceleration :
- More than 1000 scientific papers submitted to various international journals in 3 months
- In 10 weeks, more knowledge produced than in 100 years of tuberculosis, 10 years of AIDS, 10 months of Sars
II.A.2 In the media: more than a storm … a flood (enabled by NTIC technologies)
- Media: Continuous News Channel and Social Media
- Impacting the 4 types of actors: scientists and doctors, journalists, decision-makers, public opinion (spectator and actor-broadcaster)
II.A.3 Health: the situation is on track (while remaining cautious and vigilant)
- We are not in an Ebola scenario (50% mortality and of any age) or AIDS (initial hecatomb inyoung vitimes)
- The “active” and young population is spared, as shown by the examples of the Charles de Gaulle (1000 sailors and 0 victims), or at the continental level (Africa)
- People at risk are known: age above all (more than 90% of mortality is distributed over the over 65s) and therefore The Ehpad, and also to a lesser extent the existence ofcomorbidity.
- Some countries, such as the ‘old Europe’, have been particularly affected, due to lack of preparation anddisp onible tools (masks, tests… ), as opposed to countries such as Japan (“The country of white hair”, with the highest number of centenarians per million inhabitants, which reported 700 deaths or roughly 50 times less than France has equal population).).
- After this initial shambles, our health system has responded well, and we now have the individual and collective tools to deal with the Covid (as in many Asian tools that are gradually resuming pre-Covid life)
II.A.4 The”Economic Time” has therefore arrived: “Let’s live with” (as for HIV)because war is now primarily economic
- In the meantime, the 3 possible developments: spontaneous disappearance (Sars type), natural collective immunity (tb in developed countries), vaccine immunity (DTP… )
- The cure must not be worse than evil: the real fight is now economic (putting the country back in motion)
- This means focusing on the essentials, and above all playing “collective” by deferring the aspirations of different types: political, trade union, association, legal, etc.
- Thus a European fight is to be waged: the race for the vaccine (and all types of innovations).
- Will we be the Europe from which microbiology started (Jenner, Pasteur… ) relegated to being a spectator of a USA China fight, or are we going to become the “Phare of Humanity” (Georges Duhamel)?
Don’t hesitate to contact me for any “innovative” project: Guillaumez888@hotmail.com
Ⅱ. B FRANCE D. Day – 5: Deconfinement is required but must be monitored (progressive… )
II.B.1 Remain confident:
the number of patients C() hospitalized and the number of C ()in resuscitation(2500 today – situation of March 24 – pre-crisis) are in constant decline.
-A favourable situation but still at risk, because we do not knowhow the population will spread the virus or not. Let’s remain vigilant, at least until the end of May (monitoring 2nd wave)
– Conversely, the cure must not be worse than the evil, and the pathologies “health” induced by continuous confinement, and duringshort-term economic stress, are well known: mental pathologies (anxiety, depression and suicides… ), late diagnostics and therapeutics….
Ⅱ. B.2 – A 2-speed France for deconfinement: with a double gradient epidemic East-Ouest and North-South
-For followers of accurate data at the regional level, complete tables in the resources section on: www.covidminute.com
- Epidemic vision and resuscitation capabilities:
Ⅱ. C: EUROPE OF CONFERENCE:
AT THIS STAGE NO SECOND WAVE FOR COUNTRIES AHEAD OF US
Ⅱ. C.1 Countries in Sharp Decline
Ⅱ. D WORLD: More than 4.5 million historical cases and 350k deaths worldwide.
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary fromcountry to country (example: availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2.5M active cases confirmed for observation, almost half of them in the US
Timeline (historical): Epidemic growth since January 1: 4.3 million historical cumulative cases, half of which are currently active
Source: John Hopkins University
-By continent: 5 households – North and South America (likely under reporting), Europe, Russia, Middle East,
-Top 10 countries: USA-Latin America-Russia
Full country tables (time/space) on: www.covidminute.com
United States 1.07 M (yesterday 1.05 M)
Russia 202k (yesterday 196k)
United Kingdom 200k (Yesterday 199k)
Brazil 124k (yesterday 109k)
France 91k (yesterday 92k)
Italy 72k(yesterday 76k)
Spain 58k (yesterday 59k)
Peru 55k (yesterday 53k)
India 51k (yesterday 49k)
Turkey 36k (yesterday 37k)
Netherlands 37k (Yesterday 38k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 95,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
- By continent
- By country: cf minute analysis
United States 24k (24k yesterday)
Brazil 15k (14k yesterday)
Russia 11k (10k yesterday)
Peru 4k (4k yesterday)
India 4k (4kyesterday)
United Kingdom 4k (3k yesterday)
Chile 3k (3k yesterday)
Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Colombia,Ecuador: 1 to 2k
II.D.3 SPACE/TIME VISION: MAIN FOYERS
-All the tables of our”Data Analysis” expert, Carole Gabay, are updated and on the website: www.covidminute.com,and at your disposal, in the “Resources” section.
- Introducing our new “innovation”
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and caregivers)
… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- the entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb, ,,…) that allow this project to exist,
- the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager),Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all the historical financial patrons (JeromeJerome, Benjamin Denis and theConsulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca,…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner tofinance it development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
- Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!