I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – D10 of the deconfinement, no second wave C (+) observed, at present
The number of new hospital cases is still less than 500/ jr (also more tests currently).
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 France: capabilities available in the event of a second wave C ()+)
I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe, but encouraging: no “second wave” observed in countries ahead of us (Europe and South East Asia for that matter)
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases):
More than 50 active “Wuhan” activity and 4 active households to monitor: the USA (age – obesity), Latin America (young population),the Middle East (young population), and Russia (older population)
I.6 World: Record day (106,000 new cases yesterday) since the count of official cases: more cases reported in Brazil Brésil (21.7k), than in the USA (21.4k)
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
I.8/ Viral Evolution:
In the event that the possible absence of a “second wave” is confirmed in the countries previously affected, it is necessary to remain vigilant(detection and isolation of contact cases, “barrier” measure … ), for two reasons:
The existence of many asymptomatic forms (about 30-40%), making the
Possibility of viral seasonality (type “flu influenza” virus)
II. Analysis 360° : What about a potentially second wave?
1.What we see: absence of a second wave, in:
– Asiancountries: if there are identified clusters (North China, Korea, Singapore… ), we can’t talk about a second wave.
– the European countries that have deconfaited before us (e.g. Germany a week in advance, and more broadly: opening of some coffee shops for example), have not presented following the measures “barriers” (3M – mobile confinement), epidemic recovery.
2 For example, in China
Many cases imported to the Russian border were recorded three weeks ago and resulted in immediate preventive measures in He Long Jiang province. As shown in the map (including Taiwan, Chinese vision of the world…), only 140 cases currently being identified, and local authorities autorités are very vigilant.
3/ However, we must remain cautious, and remain vigilant about the barrier measures, because:
- Unlike the 2003 SARS, there are many cases that are not symptomatic or symptomatic (-40%), and if they are not immediately identified (tracing) and isolated, the infection could be promoted again.
- In the event, or indeed the virus would circulate little, there would be a possibility of it persisting endemically, with a seasonal resurgence (depending on theviral environmentalecosystem).
- The two hypotheses have historical arguments: Sars in 2003 disappearing completely in 12 weeks (patternschéma observed in different respiratory viroses), but also diagram of the Spanish Flu which presented 2 peaks: Autumn 2018 and winter 2019.
- The second is that if the current elements in Europe are rather positive, it is difficult tobe état a prophet,asthings stand, and we must remain cautious.
II/FRANCE: cf Minute Analysis
- It’stime to move to the economy, by being careful (3M) in high-risk spaces à (transportation… ), and above all by protecting the frail
- The indicators are encouraging at the regionallevel, even if the numbers increase (and are likely to increase) slightly following the massive dissemination of the tests:
- Many iconographies (tables, graphs… ) carried out with Carole Gabay (Data Analysis Expert), you are proposed in the section “Charts”
III. EUROPE: A Europe has 3 speeds and no second wave at present
An East-West gradient:
Deconfinement: 3 types of countries
You can find these curves and test and containment elements for 150 countries and 50 US states on the CovidFlow interactive pages https://covidminute.com/covid-flow
IV WORLD: 4 endemic outbreaks (Americas,Russia, Middle East) and a record number of new endémiques cases reported yesterday (100k)
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane, and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
- Prevalence: 2,738,000 active cases confirmed for observation
1.1 Vision time:
- Space Vision: The Americas in epidemic phase épidémique
- World: cf map “minute analysis”
- Continent: America (54%) – EU/Russia – Middle East
- Top 10 countries
United States 1.13 M (yesterday 1.11 M)
Russia 220k (yesterday 221k)
United Kingdom 200k? (YesterdayHier 199k?)
Brazil 160k (yesterday 148k)
France 90k (yesterday 90k)
Italy 65k (yesterday 68k)
India 63k (yesterday 61k)
Peru 59k (yesterday 60k)
Spain 55k (yesterday 54k)
Netherlands 37k? (YesterdayHier 38k?)
Turkey 34k (yesterday 34k)
2. Impact: 98,000 new cases detected yesterday
For all the charts and tables produced daily by the analytics team, please see the Thematic Files section https://covidminute.com/les-dossiers-thematiques
By continent: 4 active epidemic regions: Latin America – USA – Russia – Middle East
By country: cf minute analysis.
Brazil 20k (11k yesterday)
United States 20k (17k yesterday)
Russia 9k (9k yesterday)
India 6k (6k yesterday)
Peru 5k (5k yesterday)
Chile 4k (2k yesterday)
Mexico 3k (2k yesterday)
Saudi Arabia 3k (3k yesterday)
Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Sweden, South Africa, Canada, Ecuador, Egypt: 1 to 2k
V. Save time with CovidFlow: The interactive in one-click World C
Tomorrow: In the coming days
- Brazil: when politico-economics is involved in health decision
- Japan: nothing new in the land of centenarians?
- Sweden: success or bankruptcy?
- Interest in masks by a-b: thestudy was published
- Economic Économique health: thisisthemajor issue (recovery ofactivity)
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get
protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (email@example.com).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you