We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries…) simply ask, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us..
Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai,specializing in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a preview of the elements of understanding on its “country and regions analysis” andpredictable su ites (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail ci below):”everysuccess is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available on our website andyou can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – J-2 after 49 days of containment, a significant step forward with less than 500 new cases yesterday
France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C+)
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 France – Forecast: resuscitation beds available (at stake from 16 May): C beds (up) fall below 3000, for a maximum capacity of about 9000 beds.
1.4 France: D Day(“Deconfinement Day”) minus two: departmental global vision
I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases): Nearly 1 in 2 active cases reported in the US (1 Million/2.3M)
I.6 World: More than 10,000 new cases yesterday in the USA, Russia and Brazil in epidemic phase
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
International results comparatifs of “country strategies”
Indicator certainly not perfect (because of the tests, population density, the median age of the country …) but available, to assess the impact of “country” strategies.
Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (see Finland or Australia with low population density versus Singapore or New York)
II. 360-degree analysis
With the Collaboration of Dr. Bachir Athmani and Carole Gabay
the contamination of health workers in France would be even worse than in Italy: lack of protective equipment…
Ⅱ. A“HAVE THE FILM IN THEWORLD”: Normal life resumes its dynamics 3 mois after the first cases
Ⅱ. A.1 At the epidemic level, the situation seems well controlled
closure of the closure of cities in He Long Jiang province (Russian border), following recent cases imported from Russia and now under control. Few or no local cases.
constant vigilance of controls in different cities: temperature (in the metro), electronic pass (code QR green bare for access to offices…). Thus no direct flights to Beijing, is yet allowed.
massive screening campaign: thus, note a crucial point in terms of Public Health: reopening of the high schools in Wuhan, only for the senior students so as to be able to pass their baccalaureate (“Gao Kou”) on 6-7-8 July: the 17,000 students of the senioryear have beentested and 100% of the tests would have negative income.
China, given its population densities, must be 100% preventive, and this can be illustrated by this iconography:
% of Covid caregivers observed by localisation
Ⅱ. A.2 Government to help disaster industries (tourism, transport,..)
The May Day holiday (normally 1-2 days) was extended to 5 days and 115 million travelers were observed.
Ⅱ. A.3 Different symbolic measurements to return to normal functioning
The Party’s annual plenary meeting (usually early March) will be held on 22 May in Beijing: it is not yet known whether the 3,000 participants will be physically present.
In Beijing, the reopening of the Int erdite City(80,000 entries per day in pre-Covid), with the usual preventive measures.
In Shanghai, Disneyland reopens On country level: ‘Old’ and ‘Western’ countries are on the front line
Reopening of parks in major cities and schools are also gradually reopening
5G has just appeared in Shanghai (only for Android-type phones – privileged Chinese brands)
In Shanghai, 80% of coffee shops, 65% of constructions have resumed
Ⅱ. A.4 Vaccine (race to): positive intermediate results for the Chinese
Technology: a Chinese vaccine (PiCoVacc) from the Sinovac Biotech Society in Beijing, has been tested positively in animals (effectiveness 3 weeks). The researchers injected a recombinant vaccine, macaques, in a way to create an antibody response in case of new contact with the virus. A week later, the monkeys who received the vaccine no longer had viruses in their lungs, despite exposure to the virus, while control groups developed severe lung disease. The trial on human volunteers represents the ‘next step’,next but the low exposure to the virus in China will have to lead to international collaboration.
Ⅱ. B Europe: countries that have deconfined have not undergone a second wave at present
Ⅱ. B.1 An east-west gradient: a mortality example (map covidminute.com)
Ⅱ. B.2 Europe of deconfinement: no second wave observed to date (but a little early to say because the incubation period is about 5-7 days)
Ⅱ. C France – A 2-speed France for deconfinement (see minute analysis): regional vision
Ⅱ. D WORLD: the 4 million reported cases soon crossed (240k official victims)
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwaveringsupport.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: The 1 million confirmed active cases mark in the US (/ 2.3M cases currently reported)
1. Prevalence: 2,356,000 active cases confirmed for observation
Epidemic growth since January 1: about 4 million historical cumulative cases
Geographical vision: 5 households – North and South America, Europe, Middle East, Russia
By continent: The Americas for half of the current cases, Europe for a quarter and Russia for 10% of cases…
Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www.covidminute.com
UNITED States 1020k (yesterday 998k)
United Kingdom 180k (yesterday 176k)k)
Russia 160k (yesterday 152k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Italy 88k (yesterday 90k)
Brazil 80k (yesterday 75k)
Spain 65k (yesterday 67k)
Turkey 45k (yesterday 47k)
Peru 41k (yesterday 39k)
India 40k (yesterday 38k)
Netherlands 36k (yesterday 36k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 94,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
By continent continent:30% USA,20% Latin America,15% for the 2″Europes”(West and East)
USA 27k (27k yesterday)
Russia 11k (11k yesterday)
Brazil 10k (8k yesterday)
United Kingdom 5k (6k yesterday)
Peru 3k (4k yesterday)
India 3k (3kyesterday)
Spain 3k (3k yesterday)
France 1k (4k yesterday)
Pakistan, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh,Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, France, Germany, Ghana, South Africa, Canada, Mexique, Chile, Ecuador,Colombia: 1 to 2k
All the tables of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website: www.covidminute.com,in the “Resources” section.
II.D.3 America: in epidemic phase
- Mortality Geopathology
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people(ersonnel caregiver)
… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb,) who are enabling this project to exist,
- The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- The whole “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner to fund computer development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (email@example.com).
- Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!