In France, let’s go out “covered” (in risky circumstances), and watch out for the “South”

One of the key indicators (because there is little “dependent test”) is the number of deaths / day observed.

It is this parameter that the American President puts at the top of the list, to justify his vision (staying at a level of less than 500 deaths / day… which has not been the case for 3 days).

Also with the arrival of winter in the southern hemisphere, watch for the 3 BrIcS (Brazil, India, South Africa)

Minute Analysis:

1. Acceleration of the detection of new cases without parallelism on mortality (generally delayed from S2-3):

At the global level: the cases detected (“dependent tests”) reach peaks (150-200k) in many countries (India…), but daily mortality remains “stable” (less than 5000 deaths)

2. France:

If the classic indicators (hospitalizations, resuscitation, death) continue their favorable evolution, let us remain vigilant (++), the virus is still circulating, but in a controlled manner:

  • 79 hospitalizations yesterday
  • Always between 500 and 1000 new cases / day (see dependent tests): 621 yesterday
  • Still a hundred existing clusters (86 currently) “under control”
  • Let’s follow the territories in epidemic phase: Guyana (very young population) and Mayotte…
  • Currently, around 300k PCR tests / week in France (2 million since deconfinement); the positivity rate of these tests is 1% (0.94% exactly), which means that for a positive case found, it is necessary to test on average 100 people (107 exactly). In Guyana, which turns out to be in the epidemic phase, this rate is 20% (for a positive case 5 are tested)


Vigilance as evidenced by the recent partial reconfiguration in Spain, and the developments in certain countries which had deconfined early (Greece, Israel, Croatia…)


Let’s watch the evolution of the figures observed in the countries of the southern hemisphere (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa …), which being in winter, could be a prelude to a possible
Scenario for Europe in autumn.
Let us cite in addition to the two Americas, the following countries of the Southern Hemisphere:

  • Indian subcontinent: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Iran.
  • Africa: South Africa, Madagascar (2 months after its deconfinement, the capital Antananarivo is again placed in isolation…)
  • Asia Pacific: in particular Australia with Melbourne (2nd city), where more than 5 million people must stay at home for at least 6 weeks.

4.1 Mapping of current official cases

4.2 Prevalence: More cumulative cases in Latin America (2.3M) than in Europe

4.3 Incidence: India and South Africa join the top 5

5. USA – Current epicenter (25% of cases): 40Millions of tests afterwards, the risk now comes from the South … and not from the East!

1. Epidemic, particularly in the “Republican” South (Texas, Arizona, Florida / 10 k per day), because early opening (see economic reason and with the temperature effect) and dissemination of tests (more tests available, more cases detected! ).

2. Possible resuscitation of resuscitation (the stake of this pathology), in certain Southern States: projections place them under tension in S2 (South)

3. Some of these states relaunch restrictive measures (Texas …)

4. The North is now threatened by an infection coming from the South and no longer from the East

5. 20% of “severe” complications in C +

6 MORTALITY 80% of cases (and deaths) in the West

6.1 Space-time evolution:

America in a still uncertain situation, Mexico, India, and South Africa are to be watched

6.2 Results indicator (to be read without making a shortcut too quickly!)



C.1 At the National level: declining indicators but the virus is still circulating

C.2 Regional development:

Note that you can:
• download the visuals developed since the beginning of the adventure on
• consult all the graphs / analyzes, updated with each article publication – France and China documents are updated every day except weekends for France, which has not published Covid data on weekends and public holidays since the end of June.
• browse the CovidFLow tool which continues to be updated daily for more than 200 countries and 50 states of the USA:

Next week (1 analysis per week):

  • Comparative mortality curves (time, age, etc.): Comparative mortality curves (time, age, etc.): substantial work by Carole Gabay and Alison Ray.

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective” thanks to:

o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed  Fadel, Dr.  Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,

o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)

o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.

o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”

o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation

If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development

computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (

Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you

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