Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “everysuccess is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various companions (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca,… )
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.A France – Deconfinement . Day 2:
Let’s remain vigilant as the number of new “reported” C cases has increased from 412 yesterday to more than 1000 today (including 617 hospitalizations). Probably in relation to an increasing number of observed tests.
France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more C-exits than C-entries)
Still more than 500 new hospitalizations/day (objective data) despite 55 days of confinement.
I.B Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag (balance will probably be similar to that of our neighbors)
It should be noted that Italyhas passed the 1000 inpatients in ICU
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.C France – Post-disconfine forecast
resuscitation beds available – the issue from 16 May: the healing system will have a hard time with a “second wave” C()especially as the C(-) will gradually return
The date of May 16, where vigilance should be increased, is explained by the deconfinement (increased viral transmission) whenit has been added the average duration of viral incubation: 5js.
Note that our health system was on the verge of rupture (see transfers), a month ago (7184 patients in resuscitation on April 8)
I.D Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flexing(imporance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.E Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases)
5 active households (North America, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Russia)and nearly 50 “Wuhan” has different epidemic degrees.
I.F Active households: USA and BIS(Brazil, Russia,India) are at 20k new “reported” cases per day
I.G World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals:
3 levels observed: The USA passes into the top group.
II. 360-degree analysis
Ⅱ. A Media creates “the epidemic of the show”: 24/24 and live
A.1 Media break
Just as CNN created a media “break” (with 24/7 information) during the first “Golf War”, this sword was covered in a totally new way, with a stream of planetary information never encountered before: written and audiovisual
A.2 History – Size Equation: 4 digits to put the Covid in perspective:
- 1957 influenza in France: 100,000 deaths in France (grosso modo: 3 times Covid)
- 1969 flu in France (“Hong Kong Flu”): 31,000 deaths in 15 days
- Road accidents: more than 10,000/ deaths per year in the years 1965-1995, with mainly young victims
- Heatwave in 2003: approximate death toll of 15,000 (probably half of the final Covid death toll)
A.3 Size Equation: Geography
- More than 1 million deaths per year for AIDS (youngmen andwomen) for AIDS
- More than2 million deaths per year for malaria (child)
A.4 “2 weights, 2 measures”: recall the current medical record in terms of deaths after 4 months of epidemic amounts to:
- 25,000 deaths in France
- 280,000 deaths worldwide
A.5 We are actually following technological advances (and therefore speed): from Media 1.0 to Media 4.0
- 1.0 Press (Dreyfus Affair,… .) : slow, unresponsive
- 2.0 Radio (Radio London) and TV(Moon,… ): slow and controlled (see ORTF of General de Gaulle’s time)
- 3.0 Internet: misinformation but still unresponsive (computer)
- 4.0 Social Media (and mobility) and “independent” and competing continuous news channels.
A.6 With the advent of 5G (as is the case in Shanghai), the next epidemics will be managed according to a Mode Media 5.0…..
Tomorrow we will see in a second part how the media have concretely impacted the conduct of the various actors (Scientists and Doctors, Decision Makers, and The General Public), and also what we have seen in China.
Ⅱ.B FRANCE D.Day + 2:
II.B.1 Remain confident:
The number of patients C (+)hospitalized and the number of C(+) in resuscitation are in constant decline.
… but vigilant:because the number of new “reported” C cases has increased from 412 yesterday, to more than 1000today, (including 617 hospitalizations). Probably in relation to an increasing number of observed tests. I refer you to Carole Gabay’s painting on the website: www.covidminute.com
A favourable situation maystill be at risk: overall decrease in hospitalizations
Ⅱ.B.2 – A 2-speed France for deconfinement:
With a double gradient epidemic East-West and North-South
Ⅱ.C EUROPE OF DECONFINEMENT
Ⅱ. C.1 Countries in Sharp Decline
II.C.2 Countries in a shrinking phase
II.C.3 Countries that have not yet reached their peak:
Ⅱ. D WORLD
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary fromcountry to country (example: availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2.5M active cases confirmed for observation, almost half of them in the US
Timeline: Epidemic growth since January 1: 4.3 million cumulative historical cases, half of which are currently active
-Geographic vision: cf minute analysis
-By continent: 5 households – North and South America (probableunder declaration),) , Europe, Middle East, Russia – iconography in minute analysis
-Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www.covidminute.com
Title Top 10 Country – Number of new cases C ()reported by time (day) and space (country)
United States 1.04 M (yesterday 1.04M)
United Kingdom 193k (yesterday 191k)
Russia 187k (yesterday 180k)
Brazil 94k (yesterday 90k)
France 93k (yesterday 94k)
Italy 81k (yesterday 82k)
Spain 62k (yesterday 64k)
India 47k (yesterday 46k)
Peru 47k (yesterday 44k)
Turkey 39k (yesterday 40k)
Netherlands 37k (yesterday 37k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 77,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
By continent: USA (1/4 of new cases), Latin America and Russia (1/5), Middle East and Europe (10%)
By country: cf minute analysis
USA 20k (16k yesterday)
Russia 11k (12k yesterday)
Brazil 4k (3k yesterday)
United Kingdom 3k (4k yesterday)
India 3k ( 4kyesterday)
Peru 3k (2k yesterday)
Spain 1k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Poland, Italy, France, Sweden, Germany, Sud Africa, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador: 1 to 2k
II.D.3 SPACE/TIME VISION: MAIN FOCUS
-All the tables of our “DataAnalysis” expert, Carole Gabay, are updated and on the website: www.covidminute.com,and at your disposal, in the “Resources” section.
- The “infodemia” at 4G time (more)
- A video in the coming days
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get
protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb …) that make this project a muste,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
(all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you
… because it’s not the work that’s missing…!