Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”anysuccess is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol,Gilles Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon beavailable to you on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – a J-4 of the deconfinement, a favorable economic dynamism
Decrease by 2/ previous week) but slow (always close to 500 new hospitalizations/ day despite – 55 days of confinement)
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 France – Forecast for deconfination:
Resuscitation beds available (the issue from May 16 because about 5 days of incubation on average): filling C(-) tomorrow will be an important data to see our capabilities available in case of seconde wave.
I.4 Europe: a 3-speed but encouraging Europe
No second wave observed in countries ahead of us: past peak (deconfinment) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases):
Nearly 50 active “Wuhan” and 2 outbreaks to monitor LatinAmerica(young population) and Russia (older population)
I.6 World: Latin America and North on a par in the number of new daily cases
With probable reporting in Latin America and usage reserves on this type of test-dependent figure
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
II. 360-degree analysis: Video tomorrow
Ⅱ.A I deliver to you in 24 hours a 5-minute video
In order to share 4 key synthetic and specific points to remember from the wave “Covid”, to date: the dynamic must be from now on, to Economic Health, while remaining vigilant.
Ⅱ.B Europe: follow-up of the 3 types of countries – no second wave yet observed
The detailed tables are in www.covidminute.com
II.B.1 Countries that have decommated: follow-up
II.B.4 An “Old” Continent particularly affected in terms of mortality
With more than 60%of global deaths to date) and substantial gross figures: United Kingdom (34k) Italy (31k) Spain and France (27k) Belgium (9k), Germany (8k), Holland (6k), Sweden (4k)…remember that the USA is the most affected country (87k deaths to date)
Ⅱ. C France – a good dynamic but still 1000 cases detected and 500 hospitalizations per day
Ⅱ. C.1 A regional “space time” vision is provided by this “comprehensive” table by our data analyst Carole Gabay:
II.C.2 The profile of patients is now well known: age is the key factor in the hospitalization/resuscitation/death chain.
Ⅱ. D WORLD: Latin America and North America, have the same number of new daily cases
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) whichare extremely questionable because they vary from country to country (example: availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore a major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: Prevalence: 2,516,000 active cases confirmed for observation
Epidemic growth since January 1st: more than 4 million historical cumulative cases
Geographical vision: 5 homes currently – North and South America, Europe, Middle East, Russia: iconography in minute analysis
By continent: THE USA and Latin America: more than 50% of cases currently reported worldwide
Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www.covidminute.com
United States 1.05 M (yesterday 1.035M)
Kingdom A199k i (yesterday 195k)
Russia 196k (yesterday 192k)
Brazil 109k (yesterday 99k)
France 92k (yesterday 92k)
Italy 76k (yesterday 78k) Spain 59k (yesterday 61k)
Peru 53k (yesterday 50k)
India 51k (yesterday 49k)
Turkey 37k (yesterday 37k) Netherlands 38k (yesterday 37k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 93,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
Title: Impact of Reported Cases / World: Evolution Since the Beginning of the Epidemic
By continent: Latin America joins the USA
By country: cf minute analysis
USA 24k (19k yesterday)
Brazil 14k (8k yesterday)
Russia 10k (10k yesterday)
Peru 4k (4k yesterday)
India 4k ( 4kyesterday)
United Kingdom 3k (3k yesterday) Chile 3k (3k yesterday)
Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Colombia: 1 to 2k
All tablex of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website: www.covidminute.com, inthe “Resources” section.
What’s new in the US: cases in resuscitation, gross and relative mortality (graphic comparison)
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and caregivers)
… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- the entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb, ,,…) that allow this project to exist,
- the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager),Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all the historical financial patrons (JeromeJerome, Benjamin Denis and theConsulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca,…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner tofinance it development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
- Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!