A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows this factual and objective analysis to be carried out (by the way don’t hesitate to join us : email below): “each success is collective”. Our new site will be launched at the beginning of the week and you will be able to put faces on the names.
In terms of form, we decided to evolve like the initial version, towards more visuals (“less text”) in order to save you time (“Less is More”).
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A. Exact duration of lockdown is unknown (economic / health arbitration), but regional analysis (static and kinetic) will be one of the keys
1. Current challenge
The end of lockdown requires green epidemiological indicators: incidence of cases (hospitalizations,intensive cares, recoveries, …), and availability of resources (intensive care beds), in case of a second wave …
2. Large regional disparities
There are great regional disparities, depending on health determinants, in an infectious context:
– contact time with the epidemic and kinetics of infections
– population density (e.g. differences between Ile de France and Limousin)
– social promiscuity (60% of the transmission of cases would have a family origin)
– compliance with lockdown instructions (e.g. certain suburbs)
– age distribution (ex: differences between Provence Alpes Côte d´Azur and Ile de France)
– health status: pre-existing pathologies (we know the risk factors: age, respiratory failure, obesity, etc.)
– density of the medical offer (intensive care beds in particular): Seine Saint Denis is behind compared to other entities.
Thus, distribution of observed mortality is heterogeneous on the territory.
Death map (source: datagouv.fr)
3. Consequently, region will be the reference scale
We offer you a first visual approach.
We will regularly analyze these different indicators in French regions and see if they turn green.
4. Regional incidence
To avoid getting lost with charts (and figures!), we show you for information,daily incidence at regional level, to understand the evolution of time / space.
B. France D23: “Living with it”
1. France follows the same dynamic as Italy
Italy still seems to have 10 days “ahead”, and seems to have reached not a peak but a high plateau (the occupation of intensive care beds being the least questionable indicator).
Let’s note, yesterday, that Italy presented its lowest daily mortality rate in 3 weeks: 431 deaths (compared to around 1000 per day 2 weeks ago).
2. Intensive care: 3 days of slight decrease
3. With variable geometry between regions
4. Still a lot of intensive care, improvement in sight?
Our intensive care beds are still highly occupied (at 75%, or approximately 7 000 out of 9 000).
But we seem to be on the right track:
– Less requests at national level
– Decrease of mortality in all regions
5. Vigilance remains essential
We must remain vigilant: new diagnosed cases are always around 3 000 per day (with a heterogeneous evolution between regions) including 40% in Ehpad (with probable under diagnosis): see iconography (A.4).
C. World: more than 110 000 deaths in 3 months and more than 1.3 million active cases
With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet and Stéphane, companions from the beginning, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
1. Prevalence : 1.3 million active cases confirmed under observation
Map: worldwide distribution of active cases
Source : John Hopkins University
Top 10 countries : USA well ahead in terms of active cases
USA 505k (481k yesterday)
Italy 102k (100k yesterday)
France 91k (89 k yesterday)
Spain 87k
UK 73k
Germany 64k
Turkey 52k (48k yesterday)
Iran 23k
Netherlands 23k
Brazil 21k
By continent: 81% of cases diagnosed in the Western countries (evenly distributed between Western Europe and the United States)
2. Incidence: 73k new diagnosed cases brought on by the American boom
By country
USA 25k (28 yesterday) : note that New York has seen a decrease in the number of new cases and requests for beds
Spain 3k (5 yesterday)
UK 5k (5 yesterday)
France 3k (5 yesterday)
Italy 4k (5 yesterday)
Turkey 5k (5 yesterday)
Germany 2k (3 yesterday)
Iran 2k (2 yesterday)
Netherlands 3k
Brazil, Canada, Russia, Belgium : 1 à 2k
Chart: evolution of the number of new daily cases
By country: note that the number of cases diagnosed is an indicator to be taken with caution (thus the Americans launch massive campaigns of screening tests and therefore display figures in much higher proportion than many European countries which have only very few tests).
USA 28k (-4k)
Spain 5k (+0k)
UK 5k (-4k)
France 5k (-2k)
Italy 5k (+1k)
Turkey 5k (+0k)
Germany 3k (-1k)
Iran 2k (-0k)
Brazil, Canada, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium: 1 à 2k
By continent: 3 outbreaks – USA, Europe and Middle East
3. D-day: end of lockdown soon possible for some countries (Austria, Switzerland, Germany,…)
4 . Mortality: comparative evolution across countries
Thanks to Carole Gabay our Data Analysis Expert !
With our team, we offer this organized and very (if not too much!) complete picture.
5. Evolutive tables (deaths and active cases): general improvement
With always the reservations of rigor concerning the detected cases (depending on the availability and the number of tests), a general improvement seems to take shape.
Evolution of the incidence in the 11 most affected areas
D. Focus on USA: the first on all indicators, but a slight improvement
First country affected in incidence, prevalence and number of deaths (22 000 at this time).
Remember that the major metropolises and communication hubs (Milan, Paris, London, …) are the main national epicenters. New York is no exception: the city accounts for about a third of cases (and 40% of current deaths) across the Atlantic at the moment. But keep in mind that the epidemic is migrating to the West …
In terms of mortality, the number of daily deaths has been decreasing for 2 days (going from 2000 to 1800, then to 1500 today).
If we reduce the deaths to the population (330 million inhabitants, 5 to 6 times Italy), the results are more nuanced. They are for now almost equivalent in raw number (22 000), but are to be tracked, because USA is still in an epidemic phase while Italy has reached a plateau.
As the tests are carried out on a massive scale in USA (thanks to the Abbott laboratory express kit, among other things), American figure concerning the spread of the infection on the territory is valuable (in comparison with some European countries). The number of cases per million individuals over time is a data to follow.
The President remains within his “roadmap” since his declared objective is “less than 100 or even 200 000 victims”.
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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