Special “Great North”: Scandinavians in the spotlight despite different strategies

We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries…) read this analysis “served for breakfast”, and we welcome it. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us..

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, andgives a preview of the elements of understanding on its “country and regions analysis” and predictable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “everysuccess is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Fondation Paul Bennetot (Foundation of the Matmut under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various companions (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît  Rossignol, Gilles  Langourieux… )

All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available to you on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).

I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)

I.1 France – after 45 days of containment a favourable but slow dynamic

Scissor effect in progress (hospitalizations and resuscitation)

France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C)

I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag

Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy

I.3 France – Forecast: resuscitation beds available (at stake from 16 May)

The Cova beds () below 4000 today (3827 versus 3878 yesterday) with a maximum capacity to date estimated at 9000 beds.

Post-disconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (J7 with an upsurge expected around 16 May), and the influx of patients C (-) (3305 out of 7183 occupied beds)

I.4 Europe: A Europe has 3 vitesses: peak passes (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase

I.5Epidemic  Mapping:  prévalence  Prevalence 70% of Existing Cases  Reported  in the West des cas

1.6World: Watch the BIS (Brazil-Russia-India):-Russie-Indes) :  

I.6 World – Outcome Indicator – Mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed

Comparative international results of “country strategies”

Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (cf Finland has low population density versus Singapore)

Indicator certainly not perfect (because depending on the tests, the density of population, the median age of the country … ) but available to assess the impact of “Country” strategies.

II. 360-degree analysis

Ⅱ. A WHO congratulated   Sweden on its crisis management:  crise : intra-European  and intra-Scandinavia  panorama 

I thank Dr. Bachir Athmani and Gilles Pech of Laclauze for their sharing.

Ⅱ. A.1 The Swedish  Exception:  choosing collective immunity  against the current of Western dynamics

It should be noted that the United Kingdom had initially made this choice aswell, before backtracking  arrière and returning to the principle of containment.

Sweden has been working on its own epidemiological models (particularly on the Spanish flu of 1918-1919with a decrease in life expectancy of  vie de  9  years)and its own population data (without transposing Asian models).

The worst scenario for this country of 10 million inhabitants being  estimated  at  70,000 victims (0.7% of the population) has come into account given the average age  of  deaths  460.000 potential years of life lost(APVP) in  2020.One  of the decision elements is  also  the APVs induced by a persistent economic crisis  (for  Sweden  some  economists estimating  it at 10 Millions/year).   éléments

Flexibility  and  responsiveness  via constant monitoring by the government and Parliament (right of veto): System in which the health agency is independent of the government and consults medical and non-medical experts (economists, etc.)

Population support (over 65%)

Ⅱ. A.2 Our previous  “Crash Test” (over a month)  was  titled: “SwedishRussian Roulette”  Suédoise”

The CovidScore had evaluated them with a low score (class in the red où zone)  as:  no closure of  schools, gathering allowed upto  50  people, absence of mask, absence of isolation of patients C ()…

Nevertheless, there are four  positive elements:

  • The  Swedes  have  protected  the frail in an extremely effective way,  which helps to explain the good  résultats  results in the future..
  • Closure of some shops  at risk(bars…   universities, ski resorts and museums.
  • Tests: policy in line with WHO recommendations.
  • Construction of Covid  medical structures, to deal with a  potential overheating of the health system.  

Note a  Swedish specificity  regarding the freedom left to citizens to assess their risk: physical distance,  physique,  travel, telework.

Ⅱ. A.3 Nevertheless take into account swedish  specificity  spécificité  has three levels:

Low population density  (contact): 2nd  ème European  country in terms of area (just  after  France) its population density  is low (7 times less than France) with  nevertheless  3″European”cities with important exchanges  (cf Champion’s League): Stockholm,  Gothenburg, Malmo

Large immigrant  population:  Sweden has always practiced humanitarian diplomacy  with  a  large immigrant  population  (500,000  in  Stockholm) in particular from Somalia

Culturally: very  high level of human development (education)  of this  “Lutheran” population, known for three   elements:  

Strong individual responsibility:  for example, low rates of regular consumption of antibiotics or anxiolytics compared to other European populations.  Européennes.

Collective vision marked  with respect for the other: few acts of incivility (metro fraud, pedestrian crossing  respects,  vandalism,..)

Intravert more than extrovert: far from our “Hugging or Kissing cultures” (Italy, France)

Ⅱ. A.4 Good results  observed in  Sweden:  2769 victims for 10 million individuals

At the global level, the results  indicator currently available (evenmême if it has its imperfections in comby countriesas  heterogeneous in terms of population density  or practical tests or test declarations) tests)  shows an excellent level of  27/100k  individuals.

The distribution of mortality  would be approximately: 40% in structures for the elderly,20% in the immigrant population (poor  understanding  of  prevention messages initially  in  Swedish  and  English…   ) and 30% in the  general population (of course above all seniors).

The economic impact is  estimated  around -4% of the GDP.

Ⅱ. A.5 International and Scandinavian Comparisons(same  ecosystem))
  • At European  level: As a reminder (see above I.6): the countries of southern Europe are moving  to  figures 10 times  higher..
  • At the Scandinavian level: the measurements of the other Scandinavian countries (green in the  CovidScore) are still 6 times better (4-8/27)


Ⅱ. A.6 Can we  conclude something:

We cannot conclude today of a better system  than  another, as the virus is still circulating, and that the  Swedes  have  been more exposed to  the virus (we will provide the rate of  people  immediately),and as a result theepidemic  may last  less in the long run.  

Swedes get a good overall result, as:

  • Fragile and vulnerable people have been protected  effectively and preventively
  • They believe that the collective immunity of their population is greater than that of their neighbours.
  • The economy was less  impacted than in other European countries.

II.B Europe: Countries that have  decommated

II.C France – regional  and departmental assessment: départementale :

II.C.1 Regional scissor régional  effect:
II.C.2 Preparing for   deconfinement:  East-West and North-South gradient

Ⅱ.D WORLD: Russia in epidemic phase and Africa surprises us

With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Flavien Palero, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.

Beware of certain chiffres (number of cases, deaths…) extremely questionable because they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore a major under-reporting in some countries.

By continent

Ⅱ.D.1  Prevalence:  2.2 M of active cases confirmed for observation

Epidemic growth since January 1:  Nearly   4 million cumulative cases

Source: John Hopkins University

Geographical vison: 4 active poles: Americas, Europe, Middle East, Russia.

Source: John Hopkins University

Note the very low number of deaths (example 15 deaths reported to date in Côte  d’Ivoire) or cases of resuscitation in Africa (if resuscitation were full we would be): effect temperature/humidity, youth of populations, effect “quinine”  … many questions still to be decided.

By continent: Americas, 50% of reported active cases, Europe 30%, Middle East and Russia has 7%

Top 10 countries

United States 958k (yesterday 939k)

United Kingdom 162k (yesterday 158k)

Russia 126k (yesterday 117k)

Italy 100k(yesterday 100k)

France 93k (yesterday 93k)

Spain 71k (yesterday 73k)

Turkey 56k (yesterday 60k)

Brazil 55k (yesterday 51k)

Netherlands 35k (yesterday 35k)

Peru 32k (yesterday 31k)

Ⅱ.D.2. Incidence: 76,000 new cases detected yesterday and Russia in epidemic phase(nearly   20% of new cases  reported))

Depending on the weather:

Title: Impact of Reported Cases  / World:  Evolution  Since the  Beginning  of theEpidemic


Continent: more new cases in Russia than in Europe

By Country

United States 22k (25k yesterday)

Russia 11k (11k yesterday)

Brazil 7k (5k yesterday)

United Kingdom 4k (4k yesterday)

India 4k  (3kyesterday)

Turkey 2k (2k yesterday)

Peru 1k (3kyesterday)

Canada 1k (3kyesterday)

Spain 1k (2k yesterday)

Pakistan, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates,  Bangladesh, Belarus, Ukraine, France, Italy, Ghana, Mexico, Chile,  Ecuador:  1 to 2k

3 Countries Impact of Diagnostic Cases/MillionIndividuals:

Indicator very  questionable because test  dependent…

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

  • “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks  to:
    • The entire “Medical” team of “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb…) that make this project a muste,
    • The entire data analysis and IT  team:  Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”),Richard  Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his  pastcontribution)
    • The whole “Communication” team(Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie,  Alison… ” ( ): without whom this project would not have been possible.
    • All historical financial patrons (JeromeJérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting CompanyB Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles  Langourieux…)   working  for  “Citizen Actions”
    • We also thank the Paul Foundation
  • If you feel like a patron or partner to finance computer development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).
  • Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it is not the work that is missing… !