We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis management teams”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We simply ask you, when you use our memos (3M, 4M, 3M3T) or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic since January 28 and delivers in preview the elements of understanding and consequences predictable (SARS experiences in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory , Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, …)
Our illustrations, created almost 100 days ago, will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 ° MINUTE”: 2 maps and 4 graphs (=> 80% of useful information)
1. France – a dynamic but slow dynamic: scissor effect in progress (hospitalizations & resuscitation) with yet still +/- 700 hospitalizations / day (after more than 40 days of confinement)
2. Time vision: we are following Italy’s dynamic with a 10 day delay
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy
3. France – Forecast: resuscitation beds available (the stake from May 16)
- Cova (+) beds below 4000 today (3878) with a maximum capacity to date estimated at 9000 beds.
- Post-deconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, the incubation period (D7 with an increase expected around May 16), and the influx of patients C (-) (3305 out of 7183 beds occupied)
4. 3-speed Europe: peak – plateau – epidemic phase
- European countries in epidemic control phase:
- Interesting to know for French deconfinement: Switzerland, Germany and Denmark, which have started deconfinement, are at around -20% in number of new cases compared to the week before deconfinement. Austria at -73%. As the incubation period is estimated at +/- 1 week, the data for next week (S1 deconfinement) will be interesting to analyze.
5. Globally: half of the 2 million active cases in the Americas and a third in Europe: monitor Russia and Brazil
A. ”Good morning Asia”: Technological turbo-acceleration
A.1 This acceleration is the consequence of 2 elements:
- the economic wartime emergency: the shortage generates innovative solutions to overcome it.
- the globalization of exchanges with projects working 24/7 (like the Covidminute between Asia
A.2 3 types of innovations:
- Mechanical: let us cite a variety of ventilators (initiated in Italy by shortage of actual ventilators), or new and more extensive indications for CPAP allowing patients to avoid resuscitation.
- Digital: we develop them in point A4. Current technological tools make it possible to have maps of prevalence of cases at very precise levels, using “Big Datas” localization software:
- Biotechnology: the Everlywell American Company launched a “Covid home test” kit with mailing
A.3 Solutions for 3 types of audience:
- General public : telemedicine for example
- Caregivers : nursing robots in Japan
- The organization : All patients currently pre-operative in China must have negative Covid screeming.
A.4 6 concrete examples showing the cultural acceptance of the population for these new tools (thanks to Anne Maynard for her contribution):
.Applications of all types: information (www.covidminute.com) (Doc.1.0 type), to the exchange forum (Doc.2), via mobility (75% of our readers), to the “intelligent” functionality (Doc.4.0). We are working on it and don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com) if you wish to take the bandwagon, and join our team.
..Apart: The apps for tracing cases that allow us to trace contacts at different risks (high, medium, low) depending on proximity to patient C (+). Example of technology that upsets societal values with certain skeptics judging this type of tool certainly useful but liberticide. The same is true of quarantine monitoring apps (in China) or to access your work (“green light”)
..Telemedicine: with tools that improve day by day (remote monitoring, ECG, even ultrasound, …)
… Virtual reality: with training and simulation software offered for example by Oxford Medical Simulation Group /
… Artificial intelligence: predictive expert system allowing to model (via regressions) the evolution of the epidemic
… 3D printing: to create masks in a personalized way
… Drones: surveillance (China, Belgium, …) or drug delivery
…. Robotics: Washing robot very used in public transport in Korea.
A.5 We can better understand this sentence that I have been repeating since February 15, illustrating this surge of knowledge stemming from the development of new technologies: ”It took more than 1000 years to understand smallpox, 100 years for tuberculosis, 10 years for AIDS, 10 months for Sars, and 10 weeks for Covid ”
-So in 3 months, we know a lot (80%) about the Coronavirus and the Covid: genetics of the virus (one week), transmission, epidemiology (distribution of mortality, …), pharmacological, ogical elements, .. .
A.6 If you are in the field of innovation, do not hesitate to contact me because I am above all an entrepreneur and consultant.
B. Epidemiological map of deconfinement: a Green-Yellow-Red France
B.1 Viral circulation: only 3 departments with negative dynamics
Source: Ministry of Health
B.2. Resuscitation capacities to absorb a second shock: occupation of resuscitation beds
Source: Ministry of Health
B.3: In total: A synthetic map with an East-West and North-South gradient to be monitored regularly
C. WORLD: 4 billion confined, more than 3 million historical cases declared, 2 million active cases (and 200 k deaths)
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Alison, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
vs. 1. Prevalence : 2,076 000 active cases confirmed under observation
Epidemic growth : 3 million cumulative historical cases
Source: John Hopkins University
Space vision : 4 active hubs: Americas, Europe, Middle East, Russia.
Source: John Hopkins University
By continent: Americas, 50% of active cases declared, Europe 30%, Middle East and Russia at 7%
“Top 10 countries”: United Kingdom 1st European home
Top 10 countries in terms of prevalence
Top 10 countries:
United States 8901k (yesterday 879k)
United Kingdom 150k (yesterday 144k)
Italy 101k (yesterday 102k)
Russia 100k (yesterday 94k)
France 93k (yesterday 93k)
Spain 76k (yesterday 77k)
Turkey 65k (yesterday 68k)
Brazil 47k (yesterday 44k)
Germany 30k (yesterday 33k)
Netherlands 35k (yesterday 34k)
C.2 Incidence: viral recovery (90K diagnostic cases and 6k deaths per day)
Chronological vision:
Incidence: 91,000 new cases detected yesterday
Daily incidence and death worldwide
By continent: Latin America joins Europe in terms of new daily cases
Top 10 countries : new active households in addition to the USA: Russia, Brazil, United Kingdom, …..
Top 10 Countries in terms of incidence (number of deaths / day)
By country
United States 34k (30k yesterday)
Russia 8k (7k yesterday)
Brazil 6k (6k yesterday)
United Kingdom 6k (6k yesterday)
Spain 4k (3k yesterday)
Turkey 2k (3k yesterday)
Peru 3k (3k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador: 1 to 2k
C.3 Let’s monitor one of the outcome indicators: the ratio of deaths per million inhabitants
1 / “Gross” table: behind the datas…. a variety of strategies
-The Western world gathers 90% of the declared Worldwde mortality (200k deaths, including more than 100k in Europe and more than 60k in the United States), and more than 90% of the declared cases (see dependent tests). in Hubei was underestimated in the initial period, and comparisons will obviously be difficult.
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
- the whole “Medical” team of the “GCRMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Marc Genton, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Emily Kara, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, ,,. ..) that allow this project to exist,
- the entire data analysis and IT team : Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all financial sponsors including the Paul Bennetot Foundation (foundation of the Matmut under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Dr Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and, Gilles Langourieux who work for “Citizen Actions”
- If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me ( guillaumez888@hotmail.com ).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!
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