Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol,Gilles Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France D.Day – 16 days (cf incubation of the disease – 20 days):
Indicators always green (318/ 4200 at the peak) while remaining vigilant
Containment: one of the major measures
Different other hypotheses envisaged: Immunity crosses (/ other coronavirus for example),Temperature and humidity (winter in Latin America), Natural Cycle, …
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 Europe: no second wave in countries with talks before us
The result indicator: attention as we mentioned more than 6 weeks ago, to the interpretation of this type of graph, by non-specialists correlation: computer is not synonymous with causality!
II. 360-degree analysis:
Tomorrow a very interesting comparison between the cinetics: China / Italy (but yes, of course!).
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for the unwavering support of yours.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Prevalence: 2.9M active cases confirmed for observation
Continent: 55% of cases in America 20% still in Europe, 10% in Russia…
By country :
Top 10 countries
United States 1.15 M (yesterday 1.14 M)
Russia 227k (yesterday 231k)
Brazil 208k (yesterday 198k)
United Kingdom 200k(maintained at their last known prevalence level)
France 88k (yesterday 89k)
India 82k (yesterday 80k)
Peru 73k (yesterday 69k)
Spain 59k (yesterday 59k)
Italy 53k (yesterday 55k))
Chile 46k (yesterday 44k)
Pakistan 38k (yesterday 38k)
Impact: 91k new cases reported yesterday
Long time ( January 1st)
By continent: Latin America for more than 1/3 of cases (and likely under declaration)
By country: cf minute analysis
USA 18k (18k yesterday)
Brazil 15k (11k yesterday)
Russia 9k (9k yesterday)
India 6k (6k yesterday)
Peru 6k (4k yesterday)
England 4k (2k yesterday)
Chile 4k (4kyesterday)
Mexico 2k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Belarus, Turkey, Spain, Sweden, South Africa, Cameroon, Canada, Egypt,Colombia: 1 to 2k
II.B SPACE TIME TABLE: 3 Country Types (red-yellow-green)
II.C COVIDFLOW: The synthese tool
Our “Covidminute” team provides you with the “Covidflow” base (accessible on our platform: www. covidminute.com), and thus gives you all the important elements for 151 countries as well as the American states.
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you