The Covid apparently follows the 12-week rule (historical observation rules)

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):“every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)

All our illustrations created for more than  100 days, will soon be available on our website and you can download a large part of them. (

I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)

I.1 France – at  J-1 of the de-containment, a favorable dynamic  (decrease by 2/ previous  week)  but slow  (always  nearly 500  new hospitalizations/day  despite dé 50 days of confinement))

France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C)

I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag

Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy

I.3 France –  Forecast  for  deconfinement :

Resuscitation beds available (the issue from 16 May because about 5 days of incubation on average):)  2/3 of the beds occupied (about 2800 beds C(plus), more than 3000 C beds  (-) used, for a maximum capacity  around  C ( 9000beds).

I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.

Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.

I.5 Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases):

nearly  30 active “Wuhan”  activity and 2 outbreaks  to  monitor  Brazil  (young population) and Russia (older population)

Source: John Hopkins University

I.6 World:LatinAmerica  in epidemic phase

with a number of new daily cases tending  to reach the USA  (with  likely  under-reporting … ):  20% versus 30% of new reported cases  déclarés  (with usage  reserves  on this type of test-dependent figure)dépendants)

I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed

  • Comparative international results of “country strategies”
  • Indicator certainly not perfect (because of the tests, population density, the median age of the country …) but available, to assess the impact of “country” strategies.
  • Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (see Finland or Australia with low population density versus Singapore or New York)

II. 360-degree analysis:  ifcurrent events dictate it

With the Collaboration of Dr. Bachir Athmani and Carole Gabay

Ⅱ. A Change of epidemiological environment requiring appropriate information … more than one over-information (audio-visual, social-media) :    let’s avoid   repetition

Ⅱ. A.1 History of this daily analysis
  • At the end of January, French  woman, exposed to    a triple  challenge:  1/ New infectious disease 2/ In China (language, transparency of data) 3/ Surinformation (forum,  “fake  news”  … )
  • Request of the Union of French Foreigners (“UFE”)  in Shanghai, to help the French Community of China  to  better  understand the situation for enlightened and rationalchoices.  
  • Writing a daily “China” analysis on the only “social media” used in China: “WeChat,” and ultimately more than 10 WeChat groups created.
  • Migration of theepidemic in the West,  thus changing the media with the creation  of the platform:,bringing together a dozen  volunteers  all having  complementarities:    Dr. Athmani, CaroleGabay, Flavien Palero, Richard Coffre, Mathieu Bouquet,  Laetitia, …
Ⅱ. A.2 Our  contribution:    providing rational,  educational  and,… information ahead of  its  time
  • Providing information for  understanding  and  especiallyaction
  • Validated information:  Finding “Covid”  information is quite simple  in the age of search engines  (“over-information”). Thechallenge is to place it in an intelligible context (training necessary  to  identify  trends,,  and thus anticipate health decisions),   and  pedagogical  (scoring, visuals,  memos… ).
  • The China phase (28 January -10 March) was  very  positive,  in terms of   community reassurance, ,  and  answers  to  legitimate  questions.
II.A.3 Déconfinement   A.3 Where  are we  today, in the second phase (Westand website) at the epidemic level,   at  J-1 D Day?  

1/ La  “historic” rule of 12 weeks seems to be possible:  a classic  concerning epidemics: Influenza 1918-1919 (2 phases), Sars …

2/ France:  ifwe  consider March 1st as the  beginning  of epidemic,the dynamics, this  rule of viral diffusion would lead  us  to… end of  May. But  let us remain  cautious and vigilant  and see how the neighbouring countries that have  deconfinated  a week before us,  are evolving in relation  to a potential “second wave”.

3 /SinceApril in China (i.e. 12 S if we  consider  the infection  starting  on  1 January  très   (see WHO déclaration  declaration):  observation of  hundreds of cases but in the vast majority  imported and treated  (cf  recent  episode  in  Harbin coming from Russia).

II. A.4 On the media level:  the lateform as it stands:  

1/ All availableanalyses(more than 100  to  date): to gain height  and  avoid  beingêtre  “nose on the handlebars”

2/ All  visuals, scores, memos and  iconographies: more than a hundred at your  disposal

3/ A visual and dynamic Covidminute application,  which has just been finalized by the brilliant Richard Coffre

4/ Coming soon: different digital  applications  that I coordinate with Carole Gabay and  Dr.  Bachir  Athmani.

II. A.5 As a result, “MinuteAnalysis” in the coming weeks will be shorter and only if thenews   à   justifies it in order to  avoid repetition and support  you  in monitoring the  deconfinement:    
  • Today we are giving you  two  news items:

. The distribution of medical risk factors in different  différents  countries  (France, Italy, United Kingdom, USA): found in 90% of  deaths  (note relatively homogeneous figures except HTA, probably has a measurement bias: HTA  treated / HTA  measured). Introducing  iconography.  présentation.

The example of an official therapeutic protocol to follow in Morocco and which does not allow equivocation: this reactivity is to be taken into account in the success so far observed in the management of this crisis, by the Cherifian Kingdom.

Ⅱ. B Europe:

An East-West gradient: on the number of  deaths  recorded:

  • Countries that have deconfinated

Ⅱ. C France a – J50   containment  assessment: Positive dynamics, but a France has 2 speeds for  deconfinment

Ⅱ. C.1 Scissor effect but still    high plateau (500 new cases per day  despite  50 days of containment): cf minute analysis
Ⅱ. C.2 Preparation for deconfinement – departmental vision:  2  gradients-  East-West and North-South (27 departments still in red))   

Departmental vision of combinations of the two factors: case density and available resuscitation beds  (red: 2 negative indicators – orange 1 indicator – green: 2 positive indicators)

Source France Info
Ⅱ. C.3 Preparation  for  Deconfinement:   Regional Analysis:   Resuscitations  prepare:  préparent  

Ⅱ. D WORLD: the 4 million reported cases crossed (240k official victims)

With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.

Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.

Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2,356,000 active cases confirmed for observation

Epidemic growth since January 1: about 4 million historical cumulative cases

Source: John Hopkins University

Geographical vision:  5 households – North and South America,  Europe, Middle East, Russia – iconography in minute analysis

By continent: USAand` Latin America:  50% of cases  reported  worldwide

Top 10 countries: full country table  (time /space)  on:  www.

United States 1.03  M (yesterday1.02 M)
United Kingdom 183k (yesterday 180k)
Russia 165k (yesterday 160k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Brazil 86k (yesterday 80k): figure underestimated according to experts
Italy 85k (yesterday 88k): scissor effect
Spain 63k (yesterday 65k)
Turkey 44k (yesterday 45k)
Peru 43k (yesterday 41k)
India 41k (yesterday 40k)
Netherlands 37k (yesterday 36k)

Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 88,000  new cases detected yesterday

Depending on the weather:

Impact of Reported Cases / World: Evolution Since the Beginning of the Epidemic


By continent:LatinAmerica in epidemic  phase 

By country

USA 25k (27k yesterday)
Russia 11k (11k yesterday)
Brazil 10k (10k yesterday): likely under declaration
United Kingdom 4k (5k yesterday)
Peru 3k (3k yesterday)
India 3k (3kyesterday)
Spain 3k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus,Ukraine, Turkey, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, France, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Dominican Republic: 1 to 2k

All the tables of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website:, in the “Resources” section.


  • What’s new in the US: casesinresuscitation, gross and relative mortality  (graphic comparison)

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and nursing staff)

… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

  • “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
    • The entire “Medical” team of “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb …) that make this project a muste,
    • The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
    • The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
    • All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
    • We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
  • If you feel like a patron or partner to fund IT development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (
  • Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!