Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):“every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – at J-1 of the de-containment, a favorable dynamic (decrease by 2/ previous week) but slow (always nearly 500 new hospitalizations/day despite dé 50 days of confinement))
France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C)
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 France – Forecast for deconfinement :
Resuscitation beds available (the issue from 16 May because about 5 days of incubation on average):) 2/3 of the beds occupied (about 2800 beds C(plus), more than 3000 C beds (-) used, for a maximum capacity around C ( 9000beds).
I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases):
nearly 30 active “Wuhan” activity and 2 outbreaks to monitor Brazil (young population) and Russia (older population)
I.6 World:LatinAmerica in epidemic phase
with a number of new daily cases tending to reach the USA (with likely under-reporting … ): 20% versus 30% of new reported cases déclarés (with usage reserves on this type of test-dependent figure)dépendants)
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
- Comparative international results of “country strategies”
- Indicator certainly not perfect (because of the tests, population density, the median age of the country …) but available, to assess the impact of “country” strategies.
- Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (see Finland or Australia with low population density versus Singapore or New York)
II. 360-degree analysis: ifcurrent events dictate it
With the Collaboration of Dr. Bachir Athmani and Carole Gabay
Ⅱ. A Change of epidemiological environment requiring appropriate information … more than one over-information (audio-visual, social-media) : let’s avoid repetition
Ⅱ. A.1 History of this daily analysis
- At the end of January, French woman, exposed to a triple challenge: 1/ New infectious disease 2/ In China (language, transparency of data) 3/ Surinformation (forum, “fake news” … )
- Request of the Union of French Foreigners (“UFE”) in Shanghai, to help the French Community of China to better understand the situation for enlightened and rationalchoices.
- Writing a daily “China” analysis on the only “social media” used in China: “WeChat,” and ultimately more than 10 WeChat groups created.
- Migration of theepidemic in the West, thus changing the media with the creation of the platform: www.covidminute.com,bringing together a dozen volunteers all having complementarities: Dr. Athmani, CaroleGabay, Flavien Palero, Richard Coffre, Mathieu Bouquet, Laetitia, …
Ⅱ. A.2 Our contribution: providing rational, educational and,… information ahead of its time
- Providing information for understanding and especiallyaction
- Validated information: Finding “Covid” information is quite simple in the age of search engines (“over-information”). Thechallenge is to place it in an intelligible context (training necessary to identify trends,, and thus anticipate health decisions), and pedagogical (scoring, visuals, memos… ).
- The China phase (28 January -10 March) was very positive, in terms of community reassurance, , and answers to legitimate questions.
II.A.3 Déconfinement A.3 Where are we today, in the second phase (Westand website) at the epidemic level, at J-1 D Day?
1/ La “historic” rule of 12 weeks seems to be possible: a classic concerning epidemics: Influenza 1918-1919 (2 phases), Sars …
2/ France: ifwe consider March 1st as the beginning of epidemic,the dynamics, this rule of viral diffusion would lead us to… end of May. But let us remain cautious and vigilant and see how the neighbouring countries that have deconfinated a week before us, are evolving in relation to a potential “second wave”.
3 /SinceApril in China (i.e. 12 S if we consider the infection starting on 1 January très (see WHO déclaration declaration): observation of hundreds of cases but in the vast majority imported and treated (cf recent episode in Harbin coming from Russia).
II. A.4 On the media level: the lateform www.covidminute.com as it stands:
1/ All availableanalyses(more than 100 to date): to gain height and avoid beingêtre “nose on the handlebars”
2/ All visuals, scores, memos and iconographies: more than a hundred at your disposal
3/ A visual and dynamic Covidminute application, which has just been finalized by the brilliant Richard Coffre https://covidminute.com/cartes-interactives
4/ Coming soon: different digital applications that I coordinate with Carole Gabay and Dr. Bachir Athmani.
II. A.5 As a result, “MinuteAnalysis” in the coming weeks will be shorter and only if thenews à justifies it in order to avoid repetition and support you in monitoring the deconfinement:
- Today we are giving you two news items:
. The distribution of medical risk factors in different différents countries (France, Italy, United Kingdom, USA): found in 90% of deaths (note relatively homogeneous figures except HTA, probably has a measurement bias: HTA treated / HTA measured). Introducing iconography. présentation.
The example of an official therapeutic protocol to follow in Morocco and which does not allow equivocation: this reactivity is to be taken into account in the success so far observed in the management of this crisis, by the Cherifian Kingdom.
Ⅱ. B Europe:
An East-West gradient: on the number of deaths recorded:
- Countries that have deconfinated
Ⅱ. C France a – J50 containment assessment: Positive dynamics, but a France has 2 speeds for deconfinment
Ⅱ. C.1 Scissor effect but still high plateau (500 new cases per day despite 50 days of containment): cf minute analysis
Ⅱ. C.2 Preparation for deconfinement – departmental vision: 2 gradients- East-West and North-South (27 departments still in red))
Departmental vision of combinations of the two factors: case density and available resuscitation beds (red: 2 negative indicators – orange 1 indicator – green: 2 positive indicators)
Ⅱ. C.3 Preparation for Deconfinement: Regional Analysis: Resuscitations prepare: préparent
Ⅱ. D WORLD: the 4 million reported cases crossed (240k official victims)
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2,356,000 active cases confirmed for observation
Epidemic growth since January 1: about 4 million historical cumulative cases
Source: John Hopkins University
Geographical vision: 5 households – North and South America, Europe, Middle East, Russia – iconography in minute analysis
By continent: USAand` Latin America: 50% of cases reported worldwide
Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www. covidminute.com
United States 1.03 M (yesterday1.02 M)
United Kingdom 183k (yesterday 180k)
Russia 165k (yesterday 160k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Brazil 86k (yesterday 80k): figure underestimated according to experts
Italy 85k (yesterday 88k): scissor effect
Spain 63k (yesterday 65k)
Turkey 44k (yesterday 45k)
Peru 43k (yesterday 41k)
India 41k (yesterday 40k)
Netherlands 37k (yesterday 36k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 88,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
Impact of Reported Cases / World: Evolution Since the Beginning of the Epidemic
Geographic:
By continent:LatinAmerica in epidemic phase
By country
USA 25k (27k yesterday)
Russia 11k (11k yesterday)
Brazil 10k (10k yesterday): likely under declaration
United Kingdom 4k (5k yesterday)
Peru 3k (3k yesterday)
India 3k (3kyesterday)
Spain 3k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus,Ukraine, Turkey, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, France, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Dominican Republic: 1 to 2k
All the tables of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website: www.covidminute.com, in the “Resources” section.
III. TOMORROW
- What’s new in the US: casesinresuscitation, gross and relative mortality (graphic comparison)
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and nursing staff)
… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- The entire “Medical” team of “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb …) that make this project a muste,
- The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner to fund IT development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!
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