Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol,Gilles Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, are available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I.COVID 360 “MINUTE”
I.1 France : The dynamics of green indicators, but knowing how to quickly neutralize any potential focus.
- Hospitalization: 9299 C + (9.823 3 days ago & peak at 32.300 2 months ago 14/5)
- Resuscitation 658 C + (715 3d ago); note 30 in Overseas (Guyana)
- 0 deaths in IDF yesterday
I.2 EUROPE: no real second wave, but clusters… let’s remain vigilant
- To be continued (Germany, Israel …): probably next Monday
⇨ The virus continues to circulate: as a result, caution in certain risky environments (cruising, concert & choir, worship, slaughterhouse, etc.). The cause: poor ventilation, risk of “postillions”, temperature, etc.
I.3 World : 80% of cases and mortality in the West
I.3.1 INCREASING INCIDENCE:
Evolution of official C + (attention dependent test) the 175k mark seems to be confirmed… The acceleration is accelerating: 1 million cases detected in the last 7 days, or as much as during the first 3 months of the epidemic (even if dependent test)
acceleration is accelerating!
I.3.2 Geographic distribution of current cases: the southern winter has proven to be a good ecosystem for viral spread
Source John Hopkins
I.3.3 New cases: Brazil and the USA are leading the way
I.3.4. Prevalence: the West outside Russia = top 6 = USA (1.2M) -Brazil (430k) –UK (200k) –Russia (200k)
I.3.5 Mortality: table time space
500 k deaths officially registered to date, of which 80% in the West: 1USA 125k 2 Brazil 50k 3 United Kingdom: 40k…)
Overall by country
Dynamics: less than 1000 deaths per day in the USA for 6 days => rather encouraging.
Results indicator: watch out for comparisons and shortcuts (you can’t compare Taiwan to Finland!)
Responsiveness has proven to be a key success factor in the overall strategy to manage the epidemic. Thus Belgium with 9 Ministers of Health before endorsing the decisions, had the worst difficulties in the implementation of its strategy (more than 45% of deaths in Ephad).
I.3.6 Time-space vision by country:
II. SPECIAL USA
Be careful not to interpret any figure too quickly from the tests (under equipment, dependent operator …)
Thanks to Dr Athmani, Alison Ray and Carole Gabay for their contribution
II.1 OVERALL VISION: No stabilization yet, but encouraging signs
3 comprehension figures:
.population 330 M
.. 120 k deaths to date (2.3 M of historical detected cases)
… Less than 1000 deaths per day in the USA for 9 days.
Caption: The Covid in the United States has not yet stabilized (rely only on “exact” data: C + intensive care beds and deaths)
II.1.2 At state level:
II.2 Viral dynamics with variable geometry: regression on the States having absorbed the wave initially.
Many American states have largely lifted containment measures. New York, by far the most affected city, has taken another step in this direction with the reopening of non-essential businesses to the public.
II.2.1 Top 6 Up
II.2.2 Top 6 bottom:
several states in the South and West of the country record an increase in the number of positive cases.
II.2.3 NO POLITICAL GRADIENT OBSERVED IN TERMS OF SUPPORT
We do not have enough human resources to transform this table into a card… if a good soul was voluntary, welcome to the team (email@example.com)
II.3 The Covid Flow page (thanks again to Alison Ray & Carole Gabay): California
Monday: the point in the EU
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you