A. Geopathology: in the United States, the economic outlook plays a major role in the election
1. Denial at first and very little preparation
Lack of tests, masks, etc.
Chad Wolf, Secretary of Homeland Security, interviewed in the Senate in late February, was unable to respond to the medical challenges of the Covid-19.
2. Accepting the reality of the situation, but prioritizing economic health*
Complexity of decision making:
The President must embody two dimensions for his electorate:
- he must be an economic champion: maintain his image by fueling as soon as possible the economic machine, which is currently “seized”: 17 million of unemployed people, with little or no unemployment benefits, the GDP has dropped by 6% and Wall Street has experienced its greatest historic fall.
- he must be a champion of individual freedoms: demonstrations took place in Michigan (as well as in other states whose governors are democrats) for the lifting of lockdown.
3. Officially accepted to prepare and anticipate a health disaster: 100 to 200,000 deaths
Why this data?
Let’s compare with the worst European scenario. In Italy, we should eventually reach 30,000 deaths for 60 million people. As the United States is 5 to 6 times more populated, 30 x 6 = 150 to 180,000 deaths.
Current figures
An active epidemic with 40,000 deaths on D15 and 25 to 30,000 new daily cases in the past 15 days.
Projection
Still in epidemic phase, but possible slowdown on the east coast:
- the peak / plateau is looming in New York
- the spread of the virus in the East (already partially reached) could reach a plateau in about 15 days
- at the current speed (approximately 2,000 deaths per day), and taking into account the 2 week delay between cases and death toll evolutions, we can expect 60,000 new deaths, thus a total of 100,000 in a month ; Yet, different mathematical models are to be discussed according to the levels of lockdown, the effectiveness of “barrier measures”, etc.
State governors are the decisions takers on “anti-economic” and “liberticide” measures:
- gatherings of any kind: religious, sports, school, catering …
- protection of the more fragile populations
4. Understanding the American epidemiological map on D15 after lockdown started (March 4): urban / rural and some ethnic minorities / others
Great heterogeneity of the figures according to:
– States (population density, etc.) and large cities: New York has more than 240k cases and Wyoming barely 300 cases (ratio from 1 to 1000)
– some communities are more impacted:
- New York: 2 times more cases and deaths in the Latino and black populations.
- Michigan: black population accounts for 52% of deaths for 14% of the population
Note that lockdown, in place in most states, currently only concerns 2 thirds of voters: the 100 million Americans in country America are barely impacted.
Source: Politico
5. Finding scapegoats to make people forget about the initial shortcomings
5.1. Outside
– China: “Chinese virus”, “reports”, “possible responsibility of the P4 laboratory in Wuhan” …
– WHO: incompetent and too loyal to Beijing by concealing information that would have been crucial for prevention (hence its budgetary withdrawal of $ 500 million, or 20% of the WHO budget)
5.2. Internally
– The democrat governors of some states are under pressure: New York, California, etc.
– For New York and many states, lockdown will last at least until May 15.
6. In terms of communication and whatever the health outcome, the President will be “The right man at the right place at the right time”
If the end result is:
– positive, the government has made the right decisions
– negative, local governors made the wrong decisions, but the current President defended the people against an external threat (China) and allowed the economy to resume (for the 200 days left before the election of November 3)
B. France and Europe: the scissor effect is confirmed in France
1. A scissor effect finally confirmed
On a national level:
At the « Région » level:
2. France continues to follow the Italian dynamic with a 10-day lag
3. ICU: on the brink of rupture, yet, they managed to bravely contain the first wave
On a national level:
At the « Region » level:
4. Lifting lockdown can now be seriously considered
Location, age and occupation will have to be taken into consideration
National / Europe: some countries will be 15 days ahead
Local:
Source: Le Monde
C. World: Europe ⅔ deaths to date
With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet and Stéphane, whom I thank again for their unfailing support since day 1.
Some figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.
1. Prevalence: almost 1.6 million active cases confirmed under observation
Spatial distribution
Source: John Hopkins University
Continent level: 80% of cases in the Western world, America above Europe
By country: The United States is the current epicenter
- United States 631k (yesterday 612k)
- Italy 108k (yesterday 107k)
- United Kingdom 98k (yesterday 94k)
- France 97k (yesterday 95k)
- Spain 96k (yesterday 96k)
- Turkey 70k (yesterday 68k)
- Germany 53k (yesterday 54k)
- Netherlands 28k (yesterday 27k)
- Russia 33k (yesterday 30k)
- Belgium 23k (yesterday 23k)
2. Incidence: 82,000 new cases detected yesterday
Brazil and Russia will eventually join the top 5.
Temporal evolution: stabilization
Continent: 46% of new cases are in the Americas
By country
United States 27k (32k yesterday)
United Kingdom 6k (6k yesterday)
Russia 5k (4k yesterday)
Turkey 4k (4k yesterday)
France 4k (2k yesterday)
Brazil 3k (3k yesterday)
Italy 3k (4k yesterday)
Spain 1k (6k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Canada, Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany: 1 to 2k
3. Mortality: Europe accounts for 2 thirds of deaths to date
4. Country “analytical” space-time outlook
5. Lifting lockdown: a dynamic following the recommendations of CovidScore… or not
As already mentioned for the United States, lockdown lift may happen at the wrong time
E. TOMORROW
We are launching a new version of our site tomorrow, which will no longer simply be a blog. You will find many other iconographic resources, easily accessible analyzes, different sections from the analyzes that we have published for 83 days (geopathology, “Crash test”, “Corobourse”, etc.).
Be forgiving, there will undoubtedly be adjustments to be made, but the momentum remains positive!
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations
“HEC
In China for 20 years
“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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