Of the 6 strategic states (“Swinging States”), the 2 in the South (Florida, Arizona) are particularly affected by the health crisis (Florida: 7,500 deaths)
A/ GEOPATHOLOGY: USA: The “Cor-Election”
6 points to understand the triple crisis currently observed in the USA:
– health (“America First”): always a plateau has more than 1000 deaths a day
– economic (a “W” is unlikely)
– politics and society (a society in the process of “polarization”)
A.1/ Polls show President Trump losing momentum…
… with only 38% in favour (compared to 52% to his Democratic rival Biden). However, the structure of the elections (see “Great Electors”), means that one can be President of the United States without being a majority (case of President Trump who was ahead of Hilary Clinton by 3 million votes in 2016).
A.2/ Historically, U.S. elections are played out on:
– economic results first
– especially in the 6 key swing states, where there is no clear majority between Republicans and Democrats: Florida, Arizona, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
A.3/ As a result, in the face of these poor results, President Trump was forced to react:
– Dismissal of his campaign manager
– Recognition of the health crisis (wearing the mask), and especially its duration (it is not only a respiratory virus stopping with the summer), and therefore economic results probably unfulserved.
– Its advantage of “media showman” over Biden (which some media call “Sleeping Biden” for lack of charisma and vision), will not be visible, since conventions and major meetings are cancelled following the health crisis.
– The status quo is therefore not in its favour in the short term (elections in 3 months: 3/XI), it must find another mobilizing strategy, other than economic (and of course health, because the results will not be “good” at the international level).
A.4/ Basically, to appeal to its constituents (typically “white and poorly educated”), and especially those from the Swinging States, we can glimpse the following:
-Playing on the patriotic fiber following the external threat above all Chinese (real threat to the Global Leadership of the USA of the twentieth century): technological (Huawei…), diplomatic-military (Taiwan…), economic, health (“Chinese virus”) …
– Playing on the fibre “social stability” following internal socio-ethnic or migratory excesses: radicalizing discourse for respect for law and order.
– Promote abstention (voting by mail…), see postponement of elections (legally unlikely), pending economic recovery.
A.5/ For his part Biden:
Will stay on course (default choice), and define himself as the “anti-Trump”, much more than a vision (Clinton type). Two points to note:
– for the choice of its Vice President could appoint this week, a Spanish-speaking woman, to tip Florida (or even Arizona), key state in the election.
– He will have to justify himself to have been a man of apparatus for more than 20 years, having allowed China its development of type “30 Glorious”.
A.6/ Of course, a lot of uncertainties…
… showing that the ball is not only in the American camp, which in fact can pass the relay of “global power” to China, following this crisis:
– President Trump’s announcement effect, in the last week of October, on a vaccine-type joker (even has limited efficacy…)
– Impact of China whose opportunism and pragmatism are known: vaccine (symbol of a relay for a new world leadership), Taiwan, Uighurs, HK…
B/ DYNAMIC WORLD: 20 M DE CASES REPORTED SINCE JANUARY AND MORE THAN 200K / DAY CURRENTLY (DEPENS TEST)
B.1 Aspect chronological:
Increase in reported cases (- Dependent test: more than 200k/jr), with a reported stable mortality at 5k deaths per day (6,277 yesterday).
Note 50% of the 20M cases reported to date were observed in July (cf dependent test)
B.2 GEOGRAPHICAL ASPECT:
– More than 100 “Wuhan” in the world and note that China (“Out of Hubei”) is the space that has been spared the most in the world…, and for good reason: fierce restrictions on borders, total respect for barrier gestures, all technological solutions (certainly potentially liberticidal), used for the benefit of public health…
Source John Hopkins
B.3 INCIDENCE – 3 “epicenter” poles – Brazil-USA-India (with 50k day)
– In the figure “Space – Time” (logarithmic scale)
ALWAYS MORE OF 1000 DAY DECES: USA (plateau) -BRESIL (plateau)- INDE (epidemic phase – under declaration- young country)
D/ FRANCE: COMMON SENSE “3M” IN A RISK SITUATION
– Still 1000 cases reported day (test-dependent).
– Very slight increase in hospitalizations in resuscitation
See you next week, for this World panorama.
« All success is collective and thank you again, Dr. Bachir Athmani, Carole Cabay (Data Management Expert), Flavien Palero (COO), Richard Coffre (Digital Manager), Laetitia Bernard-Granger (Community Manager).
As always since January 28, the trilogy: 😷 🤚 ↔️
Note that you can:
• download the visuals developed since the beginning of the adventure www.covidminute.com on https://covidminute.com/visuels-memos
• consult all the graphs / analyzes, updated with each article publication https://covidminute.com/les-dossiers-thematiques – France and China documents are updated every day except weekends for France, which has not published Covid data on weekends and public holidays since the end of June.
• browse the CovidFLow tool which continues to be updated daily for more than 200 countries and 50 states of the USA: https://covidminute.com/covid-flow
Have a good week,
Dr Guillaume Zagury
Public Health Specialist
Consultant in Medical Innovations
Note: If you would like to join our team: firstname.lastname@example.org