Will Winter be hot? Let’s watch the southern hemisphere

At the global level: the detected cases reaching peaks (150-200k) in many countries (India…), but the daily mortality remains “stable” (less than 5000 deaths)

Analyze the minute:

1 . Acceleration of the detection of new cases without parallelism in mortality (delay of 3 weeks generally observed):

Several possibilities: wide dissemination of tests (see “Home test” in the USA), many more young testers compared to the start (less priority), fragile people are better protected (see example of Ephad in Europe), see better treatment responsible for severe cases (corticosteroid therapy, even remedial therapy, etc.).

2. France:

Good dynamics

-Less than 7850 Hospitalizations (-140 / 3d)
-Less than 550 patients in intensive care (-25 / 3 days)

But let’s remain vigilant (++), the virus is still circulating:

  • 100 hospitalizations yesterday including 10 in intensive care
  • Always between 500 and 1000 new cases / day (see tests)
  • Still a hundred existing clusters “under control”
  • Let’s follow the territories in epidemic phase: Guyana (5k cases including 130 Hospitalizations and 23 in intensive care and 16 deaths – but very young population) and Mayotte…

3. EUROPE: Vigilance as evidenced by the recent partial reconfigurations in Spain, and questions about certain countries (Israel…)


Let’s watch the evolution of the figures observed in the countries of the southern hemisphere (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa…), which being in winter, potentially prelude to a possible
Scenario for Europe in autumn.

4.1 PREVALENCE: 80% of cases / deaths in the West

4.2 IMPACT: Profile of the Indian subcontinent

5 USA: More cases (dependent test), but fewer daily deaths:



9 consecutive days in Beijing with less than 10 new journalist cases (including 0 this day), as part of the Xin Fa Di outbreak



7.2 Dynamics: less than 1000 deaths per day in the USA for 15 days => rather encouraging

5.3 RESULT INDICATORS (to read without making a shortcut too quickly!)


8.1 NEW CASES: some specialists estimate that the actual number of cases could be multiplied by 5-10 (see dependent test)

8.2 MORTALITY: 80% of mortality in the West

All the necessary data are available on: www.covidminute.com, as well as the entire iconographic database and the Covidflow tool (all information by country or state).

Next appointment

Thursday / Friday: probably a special France (or USA)

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective” thanks to:

o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed  Fadel, Dr.  Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,

o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)

o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.

o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”

o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation

If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development

computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).

Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you

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