Dr G. Zagury : “6 Minutes Covid” of 16/10/2020

Live from Shanghai since January 28 th.

“Night confinement (8 metropolitan areas) … to preserve the economy”

🚀 6 ` Minutes Flash : Objective: Contain the tide  

🇫🇷 France : dashboard

We are in an epidemic phase, and we consider this to be a “new epidemic”, which cannot be compared to the previous one, because the ecosystem has completely evolved in terms of the physical environment and preventive measures ( following new knowledge). Taking into account the probable correlation with the season (see absence of “summer outbreak” in Europe), we call it: Covid 19 – Season 2.


GEOGRAPHICAL VISION: the virus circulates in a diffuse manner in high-density metropolises

Source : Santé Publique France

THE SSF (French Health System) FACING COVID Season 2

💢SSF (“French Health System”) –NATIONAL: a rising tide

The 3 indisputable types of indicators (C + hospitalizations, C + intensive care, C + deaths) are on the relatively linear increase.

Since the massive screening, more new cases declared in France than in Brazil (27k), yesterday: 30k C + / day (20k / day last week).

To set approximate orders of magnitude and taking into account

The kinetics of the disease (all other things being equal: age …), i.e. approximately: +/- 7% of new hospitalizations (& +/- 1% of intensive care admissions) to be expected during 7-10 days while waiting that the preventive measures can have a desired effect.

Regarding the announcements of our President, they are currently essential because our SSF is on its knees (physically and morally): festive meetings (university, religious,) are the first providers of cases, which then contaminate families / businesses.

All European countries are observing the impact of this night confinement on Hospitals, while maintaining our economy as much as possible (already 1.3 million French people in partial unemployment!).

💢💢REANIMATION BEDS – at national level: the KEY to understanding

To understand the issue and if we extrapolate “with a ladle” the figures of the previous paragraph (approximately 200-300 new C + admissions to be expected over 10 days, i.e. +/- 2000 to 3000 admissions, and resuscitation times certainly shorter than 6 months ago, but still substantial (around 10-14 days), we will have to be united and united, in relation to our colleagues and their teams, on the front line.

💢💢💢 REANIMATION BEDS – REGION-DEPARTMENTAL DISPARITIES: “Be sanitary, without being military” (social acceptability ++)

The dynamic is there, and Table 2 gives a quantified idea in terms of% load / capacity, depending on the department, …

⚠️ To go further

1/ Chronological Vision (Time)

2 & 3/ Regional Barometer & DOM TOM

4/ Intensive Care Barometer

🇪🇺 Europe : “Barometer per country”

Europe has 1000 deaths / day with observed South North gradient

All the European countries protect themselves like France (social bubble has 6 ,.) and according to their social acceptability inherent in their own culture (amount of the fine …)

⚠️ To go further

5/ “Space-Time” Table

World : “World pandemy”

Time : A viral kinetics in 5 phases and a sixth which appears….

Have the few key figures in mind: 5k deaths / day and +/- 300k new officially declared C + / day (beware of everything that is “test dependent” in terms of measurement and interpretation).

Space: 4 epicentres (more than 500 deaths / day)? – India… Europe and the two Americas

⚠️To go further:

6/ Kinetic deaths for major epidemic countries

Géopathologie : « l’ARN viral exprime l’ADN culturel des Sociétés »

State of play at S3 of the American elections.

Unlike in Europe or Asia, the plateau phase has not diminished across the Atlantic (between 500-1000 deaths daily for months).

For the first time in recent history, it is possible that the US President will be re-elected, not on his economic record (very positive for President Trump in pre-Covid), but on the overall health record (image, management, ) …

The 6 decisive states (“Swinging States”) have contrasting results, as shown in the table below.

  • To be continued …

———To come up——-

  • Epidemiology: Italian study with% of asymptomatic cases according to age
  • Geopathology (“Patho-Geopolitics”): barrier gestures depending on the country, vaccine update, trends in the USA & Brazil, the Israeli case (tomorrow), Covid illustrating the end of the illusion of supremacy in the Western World, …
  • Strategy: A centralizing structure for C + in epidemiologically at risk regions (such as Val de Grace or other in IDF)

“Live with” while protecting the most vulnerable with a “citizen” attitude

  • 3M for the general population (70%)
  • 4M for populations at risk and the most exposed (30%)
  • 4M for places at risk of exposure (case by case and common sense: visiting a church alone is not at risk, conversely, risk if a crowded place and “proximity” rituals).

See you tomorrow

Dr Guillaume Zagury
Specialist in International Public Health (DES)
Consultant in Medical Innovations (France, Israel, China)
In China for 20 years

« All success is collective and so thank you to our teams (Dr. Bachir Athmani, Carole Gabay, Richard Coffre,…), as well as to our patrons, and of course to the Paul Benetot Foundation/Matmut Group.

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