We know that many journalists and decision makers (“Crisis Cells”, Ministry, …), read this analysis served at breakfast, and we are delighted, simply when they use our ideas / diagrams have the COURTESY to CITE us
———————————————————-
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai and specialist in international public health & “health innovations”, comments on the evolution of the epidemic for 68 days, and gives us a preview of the elements of understanding on his “country analysis” and the foreseeable consequences (experiences of Sars in 2003 and of Covid in China for 3 months).
——————————–
A. Italy (D30 Post Containment) & France (D20 PC): the measurements have a mathematical impact
1. Italy: Observation at D30 – The trend is there (let’s remain cautious nonetheless)
– As indicated on the green curve, for 5 days, the number of cases in intensive care does not increase any more and for 2 days, we observe even fewer entries than exits (negative green histogram):
2. France: Finding at D 20 – Fewer new cases in ICU also, … but the balance is still positive!
– But we must have a medical approach and understand that we will still “suffer” in terms of available beds (see yellow histogram / red line), because:
. the wave is offset by 10 days (West and South relatively little impacted yet)
.. the DMS (Average Duration of Stay) in intensive care is around 3 weeks.
– Thereafter, we will receive more patients / discharges for approximately 8-10 days, but in a less sustained manner probably: 148 yesterday (versus 300+ previously).
-The capacity in France is 9000 beds (with possibility of extension to 14,000) and we are currently using 7,000 beds (6,978 exactly). To be continued,…
3. A message: preventive measures are effective and it is confirmed
– In the absence of medical solutions (drugs, even vaccine possible at the beginning of 2021), preventive mechanical solutions are essential.
– Given the respective confinement dates (March 9 in Italy and March 17 in France), we see that their impacts occur a few days after the incubation period of the disease, i.e. +/- 14 days: 17 + 14 = > April 3: we are therefore in phase with the math, since the balance of inputs / outputs turned out favorable on April 5 in Italy.
4. So let’s have confidence: the preventive measures of our “COVIDSCORE” © barometer are more useful than ever.
B. COVIDSCORE ©: Put on your masks…
1. Successful countries have a proactive (preventive) approach with a “360 °” approach and simultaneously: CovidScore © table.
– Each country has its own strategy, fruit of its culture (history, “liberticide” type values, …):
. Asian countries: mask, “up-down decision process”, digital technologies much more advanced than in Europe …
..Germany, Central Europe, Israel…: masks, tests, level of digitalization, resuscitation beds (6 French patients transferred to the Czech Republic yesterday!) …
… France & Western Europe: freedom (/ gathering), weight of centralized administration and peacetime (“ramp-up”) / initiative in urgent time of war (“action”)), lack of human and material resources in our hospitals for many years following a purely administrative accounting logic (these are even Cuban doctors who will be authorized to practice in the Antilles for the time of the ‘epidemic!)
… Sweden (Holland, ..): notion of collective immunity (we “overprotect” fragile populations and we take no precautions, while waiting for 50-60% of the population to immunize
2. But following this type of visual, the decision-makers “move”: 360 ° reversal in the West !!
– In France, our Covidscore © tool aims to become the equivalent of the Moody’s indicator (economic policies) but in Public Health and therefore the interest of the populations.
– On our table, some countries raise their initial rating following the effective implementation of measures observed in Asia-Pacific historically the first affected (we have quantified standards & best practices)
-Let us, for example, the progression of Italy (tests, masks … delivered from China), and France (180 ° change of course on masks, contribution of our universito-industrial arsenal, … ): with still slowness in the administration sometimes overwhelmed (= effective to repeat the “guidelines”, less to create in an emergency situation). Nevertheless, the dynamics are relatively good, and many competent people are working to remove bureaucratic blockages.
3. Masks: one of the bases of this strategy: 3M since M2 (= 2 months)
– The “M3” (Mask-Manual-Meter) memo for the general public was created more than 2 months ago and is proving to be key in an airborne epidemic.
– From the artisanal mask (see tutorial on the Internet) to the FFP2 (professional) via the surgical mask, the risk is …. not to wear anything in a social situation.
– Quasi compulsory from now on in Italy (400 € fine!), In New York, and in many European countries (Czechia / cf the country report of day before yesterday, Slovenia, Austria, …)
4. In the end: we have to learn from Asia …. otherwise we will only do it in suffering!
– It is a global approach with prevention and identification measures, simultaneously.
– Our leaders seem to be reacting well and France is equipping itself with masks, tests, specific drugs for resuscitation (midazolam, curare, etc.)
– Besides, some should keep their criticisms (for some that can be discussed later and especially in post crisis … not now!) By looking for a scapegoat for our weaknesses and our naivety! …,
– Because on this type of subject we are qualitatively and quantitatively totally dependent on the Chinese, and until proof to the contrary they are the “Masters of the Game”: we, the Westerners, we are put in a situation of dependence !!!.
– Putting oil on the fire is stupid and counterproductive for our population because from China comes light … and equipment!
– Who are you to give lessons? Their ignorance of China (nationalist = one of the pillars) is likely to cost in human lives in the end: my wife being Chinese, I can see a beginning of anti-French feeling appearing in the media and therefore in the government => we will probably not be more priority in orders that have certainly been placed, …. but the delivery date is variable geometry !!!
-Similarly: who helped Italy (with a diplomatic and commercial counterpart, …. we know the local mentality !!), and who will “help” Africa or South America: neither l ‘Europe, not the USA! … and we leave a boulevard to the Chinese!
– Personally, I think this epidemic will reveal the naivety of Westerners in their relationship to China (I have 20 Wechat messages every day requesting equipment: France, Latin America, Israel, …)
5. “Post Confinement”: how to successfully wean?
– With Dr Athmani and Mathieu Bouquet, we quickly offer you the keys to exit from the health crisis that we have observed in Asia.
C. France D20 & World – Still in the epidemic phase: 7 messages
Analysis with the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions of the first
All the information (even over-information without hindsight) is already present in the media, and therefore I give you my point of view in the form of 7 “bullet points” & 6 diagrams
1/ Global pandemic affecting all continents (4 billion people confined to the planet), in time and in space: China & its region (and especially Hubei) historically in early January, then the Middle East and now l ‘Occident (European wave since early March, and now North American wave).
Geographic vision (John Hopkins University): prevalence 80% of active cases are in the West -10% in the Middle East and 10% others.
2 / Note that these Covid plus case measurements are extremely debatable (& thus predictive models!): Case definition too variable geometry, with measurement bias and therefore a major under-declaration:
. many forms with little or no symptoms: which, in the West, will not be counted
.. under test equipment: which proves to us that Africa does not present many patients (lack of tests)
3/ West: 80% of cases currently active and new cases on the planet.
4 / The virus migrates to the West: The USA becomes the epicenter from Europe (via the United Kingdom)
5/ Good news: the epidemic is beginning to turn back in Italy and a slowdown is noticeable in Spain and France: in recent days fewer new cases in intensive care than in previous days.
6 / Geopathology (term created 2 months ago!): This epidemic is a real “Crash Test” for our “Health Systems” and allows us to note the shift of the Center of Gravity from the World to Asia Pacific (in Confucian component), as we learned at HEC in the 90s in geopolitics (thanks to my master Joseph Le Bihan). Now no longer a vision, but a reality to come: for information, South Korea (which in 1960 had a GNP / inhabitant at the level of Chad!) Carried out, for more than 1 month, 15,000 tests per day….
7/ France: regional analysis
D. Tomorrow :
- 6 reasons to be optimistic
- The way out of the crisis: coming these days.
- ….
———————————————————————
Thanks again to Marie for her generous contribution during these 3 days.Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
Powered byMedicilline
