Ignition Delay & System D

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A. France, low profile and dynamic in progress:

1. Comparative country analysis (with specificities in terms of population density, health system, decision-making, etc.) that we have been doing for more than 3 months show:

1.1.      3 types of countries (see our Covidscore scoring proposed more than a month ago): key indicator (number of deaths / Million inhabitants)
  1. Covidscore A = “Good”: Asian countries (Japan (2), Korea (5)), Israel (16), Austria, Czech republic (17) and Eastern Europe…
  2. Covidscore B = “Fair”: Germany (46 cf 3 000 deaths),
  3. Covidscore C = “Poor”: Spain (437), Italy (394), France (263), United Kingdom, USA…
1.2.        2 key parameters for success:
  1. speed of reactivity (being proactive) / step-up
  2. global strategy (our “3M-3T” below)

2. France has always “suffered” and it was the soldiers of the Health system (on the brink of collapse), who saved the General Staff from chaos

3. End of lockdown is essential to our economic survival and the Prime Minister’s announcements are certainly encouraging:

  • tests (500 000 / week versus 150 000 / week currently),
  • tracking (application,…)
  • isolation… but with variable geometry and with a “Latin” vision (individual freedom to return home / dedicated center)

Remind the “hollystic” scheme of understanding (as with Covidscore, let’s be sure that the decision-makers who read it will refer to it!)

… .But insufficient on 2 levels:

– Masks (“mobile lockdown”) not sufficient for the world: in the context of a respiratory infection, this is the “best vaccine”.

. In South Korea, Japan, China (excluding Hubei), Israel,…: this is a constant factor

..The figures proposed for May 11 show a quantitative (17 M washable alternative mask) and qualitative insufficiency. We will provide you with the exact Korean figures within 48 hours.

-Intensive care beds (quantity): certainly the pressure has dropped… but 2 waves are coming !!

. The wave of Covid (-) waiting to be treated in the hospital for a month: it will soon fall on an already “shaken” system, with urgent tumor type surgeries (already pending following the pre-Covid strikes! ) …

.. A 2nd Covid wave (+) around May 18 (on average 5-7 days of incubation), which mechanically will follow the end of lockdown

… Unlike the Germans who have 10 000  beds “buffer stock” ready to absorb a massive influx, France is not yet at this level of preparation (6000 operational beds and 9000 planned):

As a result we persist, for the creation of a structure of 500-1000 C (+) beds with ICU and intensive care beds in Ile de France epicenter (Val de Grâce, Hotel Dieu, ..), to free the others hospitals and treat C (+). Transfers in France or abroad extremely time-consuming would thus be reduced. Do we have human capacity (the stake) and material (our industrialists will put 10 000 respirators on the market and it will be necessary to ensure the pharmacological supply type curarising …) to realize it is a question to ask.

This is based on our observation of what happened in Wuhan, where everything was unlocked with the construction in 3 weeks (around February 2) of 2 structures of 1000 beds (with 5G), for isolation and treatment C (+) patients in addition to the arrival of 30 000 healthcare professionals.

B/ France & Europe: “Scissor Effect” confirmed in France

1. A scissor effect finally confirmed:

1.1. At national level :
1.2 At regional level: scissor effect is also declining

2. France follows the Italian model with 10 days lag:

3. Intensive cares: on brink of collapse, they nevertheless courageously contained the 1st wave:

4. End of lockdown (place, age, profession) can now seriously be considered:

4.1. Europe & France: some countries will be 15 days in advance
4.2. At regional level: the East-West gradient and Ile De France epicenter

 Source : santé publique(dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr)

5. Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier: follow-up

C. World: Half of the planet is on lockdown (unique in history)

With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet, Stéphane, and Marie Claude, companions from the beginning, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.

Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.

1. Prevalence: 1 615 000 active cases confirmed under observation

1.1. Geographic vision: 10 “Wuhan” in Europe and America is on the way …

Source : John Hopkins University

1.2. Continent: 80% of cases in the Western countries and America before Europe:
1.3. Country: “Top 10”: USA current epicenter (40 +%)
  • USA 652k (yesterday 631k)
  • France 97k (yesterday 97k)
  • Italy  108k (yesterday 108k)
  • Spain 101k (yesterday 96k)
  • UK 104k (yesterday 98k)
  • Turkey 72k (yesterday 70k)
  • Germany 53k (yesterday 53k)
  • Russia 39k (yesterday 33k)
  • Netherlands 29k (yesterday 28k)
  • Belgium 24k (yesterday 23k)

2. Incidence : “BRI” must be monitored

Figures: 73 k case yesterday (with all the reserves of use on this indicator)
2.1. Time: stabilization

Continent: 42% of new cases are in the Americas 

By country

  • USA 24k (27k yesterday)
  • UK 6k (6k yesterday)
  • Russia 6k (5k yesterday)
  • Turkey 4k (4k yesterday)
  • Spain 4k (1k yesterday)
  • Italy 3k (3k yesterday)
  • Brazil 2k (3k yesterday)
  • France 1k (4k yesterday)
  • India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Canada, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany : 1 à 2k

 3. Mortality: Europe represents 2/3 of the deaths to date:

The real indicator to monitor (even if questionable in terms of under reporting!) is the number of deaths / Million inhabitant: Spain 437, Italy 394 , Wuhan 355, France 263, USA (for the moment) 123, Germany 4, Czech republic 17, Israël 16, Korea 5, Japan 2.

D. Tomorrow ?

We will launch our site tomorrow (and no longer a blog !!) with many other iconographic resources, easily accessible analyzes, different sections from the analyzes that we have published for 84 days (geopathology, “Crash test”,“Coro-bourse”, etc.).

… Probably some “bogues”,… but above all a positive dynamic.Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !

Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!

Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
‍‍Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
‍In China for 20 years

“All success is collective”, thanks to:

  • the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
  • all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
  • all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”

If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
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Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates

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