We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
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Given the epidemiological evolution (88th day of shared analysis), I decided to adapt the format accordingly, according to the 2 types of readers.
A. COVID “MINUTE” : 2 graphics and 2 maps (80% of the information)
1. State of play – Regional prevalence – 2 gradients :
– east / west
– north / south
Source : Santé Publique France
2. Forecast time: France only follows Italy 10 days late
Evolution of the occupancy in intensive care and deaths France Italy from the date of the 100th case in intensive care
3. A three-speed deconfinement :
Deconfinement objective in Europe – countries in decline (green light), in plateau phase (orange light) and those that have not reached the peak yet (red light)
4. Prevalence – 4 main active focus :
- Americas (+/- 50%)
- Europe (34%)
- Middle East (8%)
- Russia (5%)
Source : John Hopkins University
5. A 360° analysis
We are all over-informed about the multiple media dealing with the topic (social-media, audio-visual, etc…).
Consequently, we will try to gain height to decode the information and identify:
– the real trends
– “next steps” : anticipate public health measures more than suffer them….
– the possible technological breakthroughs observed in the world and particularly in Southeast Asia (2 months in advance)
As the educational aspect is important to us, we will try to provide the best visuals & memos (4M, 3M3T,….)
At the organizational level, we have decided that a theme will be studied each day of the week, with the key iconography that will evolve according to viral dynamics.
All our illustrations created almost 100 days ago, will be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
The 7 topics covered: one day, one topic, one iconography
– “Covidscore”: the strategies of each country subject to our matrix
– “Geopathology”: the implication of the disease in our daily economic, financial, diplomatic, cultural….
– Watch: what’s new in terms of technology or strategy…
– “Crash test”: study on the health system of a country in relation to the absorption of this “biological Tsunami”
– Medicine: what is safe and what is discussed (“expert versus expert” debate)
– “Covexit” – Deconfinement: instructions for use (France facing our matrix)
– The 6 reasons to be optimistic
B. France D36 : “The Chisel Effect” is confirmed
B.1 A scissor effect finally confirmed :
B.1.1 Declining hospitalizations
France: new hospitalizations and discharges from hospital, daily evolution of the scissor effect
B.1.2 Resuscitation: declining occupancy rates in all regions
Occupation of resuscitation beds by region of France
B.1.3 Deconfinement (place, age, profession) can now be seriously considered according to the regions :
France: evolution of the epidemic in hospitals by region
C. Europe: the dynamics of deconfinement are taking shape
1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
Source : John Hopkins University
2. A 3-speed Europe of deconfinement depending on the epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, …) or their health policy (Sweden): see iconography 3 of our initial minute summary.
D. World: UK ahead of Europeans….
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions from the beginning, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
1. Prevalence: 1.8 million active cases confirmed under observation
1.1 Geographic vision
Source : John Hopkins University
1.2 Continent: Europe one 3rd of cases and two 3rd of deaths to date
1.3 Country: “Top 10”, England ahead of the Europeans
Daily evolution of the number of active cases by country
United States 743k (yesterday 713k)
United Kingdom 119k (yesterday 115k)
Italy 107k (yesterday 108k)
Spain 102k (yesterday 101k)
France 94k (yesterday 98k)
Turkey 81k (yesterday 80k)
Russia 57k (yesterday 53k)
Germany 43k (yesterday 45k)
Netherlands 31k (yesterday 31k)
Belgium 27k (yesterday 26k)
2.Incidence: 81,000 new cases detected yesterday… and BRic, Brazil and Russia will join the top 5 in the long term
2.1 Number: 81,000 new cases detected yesterday
2.2 Time: stabilization
Incidence (new cases) and new deaths worldwide
2.3 Vision Space
2.3.1 Continent – 50% of new cases are in the Americas
2.3.2 Top 10 countries
Top 7 of the day of the countries in new cases, today and evolution
By country
United States 29k (26k yesterday)
Russia 5k (5k yesterday)
United Kingdom 5k (4k yesterday)
Spain 5k (4k yesterday)
Brazil 4k (3k yesterday)
Turkey 3k (3k yesterday)
Italy 3k (3k yesterday)
France 2k (2k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Peru, Canada, Belarus, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Germany: 1 to 2k
3. Different approaches… different results: the number of deaths/million inhabitants is a key criteria
From one country to another or from one city to another, the same event on comparable ecosystems (big cities “Hub”), gives impacts from 1 to 10 depending on the measures taken, a picture is worth 1000 words …
Metropolises and countries: anticipation of containment and impact on mortality
E. TOMORROW ?
- Enhancement of our site (no longer a blog !!) with many iconographic resources, different headings from our analyzes for 88 days (“Geopathology”, “Scratch Test”, “Coro-Bourse”, …).
Keep in mind the “4M reflex”
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Toute réussite est collective”, thanks to :
- the entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) type team: Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Hughes Lefort, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, …) to this project of existing,
- the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his historical contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 86 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you …. because it is not the work that is missing …!
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