Live from Shanghai since January 28 th.
🚀 6 ` Minutes Flash : Objective: Contain the tide
🇫🇷 France : dashboard
We are in an epidemic phase, and we consider this to be a “new epidemic”, which cannot be compared to the previous one, because the ecosystem has completely evolved in terms of the physical environment and preventive measures ( following new knowledge). Taking into account the probable correlation with the season (see absence of “summer outbreak” in Europe), we call it: Covid 19 – Season 2.
🇫🇷 France : THINK GLOBAL BUT MANAGE LOCAL
THE SSF ALMOST AT KNEES
GEOGRAPHICAL VISION: the virus circulates in a diffuse manner in high-density metropolises
Note a North-South gradient, in Ile de France or in Paris (see population density, see social habits, etc.)
Source : Santé Publique France
THE SSF (French Health System) FACING COVID Season 2
💢SSF (“French Health System”) NATIONAL = THE CHALLENGE: can the SSF cope with a linear influx of C +
The 3 indisputable types of indicators (C + hospitalizations, C + intensive care, C + deaths) are on the relatively linear increase, , with a shift between the sequence C + -> H + -> Rea + -> Death (generally +/- 15 days)
The objective displayed by the President is to bring back:
. the number of C + is less than 5k C + / day (yesterday 25k)
..the number of C + resuscitation beds is less than 15% (yesterday: 36%)
💢💢REANIMATION BEDS – at national level: the KEY to understanding
💢💢💢 REANIMATION BEDS – REGION-DEPARTMENTAL DISPARITIES
The dynamic is there, and Table 2 gives a quantified idea in terms of% load / capacity, depending on the department, …
⚠️ To go further
1/ Chronological Vision (Time)
2 & 3/ Regional Barometer & DOM TOM
🇪🇺 Europe : “Barometer per country”
Europe has 1000 deaths / day with observed South North gradient
All the European countries protect themselves like France (social bubble has 6 ,.) and according to their social acceptability inherent in their own culture (amount of the fine …)
⚠️ To go further
World : “World pandemy”
Time : A viral kinetics in 5 phases and a sixth which appears….
Have the few key figures in mind: 5k deaths / day and +/- 300k new officially declared C + / day (beware of everything that is “test dependent” in terms of measurement and interpretation).
The distribution of deaths (5.6k yesterday), is currently distributed roughly at +/- 1.2k in the 4 epicentres: Indian subcontinent, South America, North America, and now Europe.
Space: 4 epicentres (more than 500 deaths / day)? – India… Europe and the two Americas
⚠️To go further:
6/ Kinetic deaths for major epidemic countries
Géopathologie : « l’ARN viral exprime l’ADN culturel des Sociétés »
Good news, and as we could foresee, the Chinese have a techno-scientific “head start”, insofar as:
A first vaccine has just been marketed on the Chinese market (only at this stage)
The current conditions for obtaining it: 18-59 years old, 2 injections with an interval of one month.
The icing on the cake: foreign residents of China have the possibility of this advance.
It is a first step in this long-distance race of making it available to the greatest number. It is only the beginning of a preventive solution, which must above all be addressed to people at risk.
- To be continued…
———To come up——-
- Vision at S1 of SSF….
“Live with” while protecting the most vulnerable with a “citizen” attitude
- 3M for the general population (70%)
- 4M for populations at risk and the most exposed (30%)
- 4M for places at risk of exposure (case by case and common sense: visiting a church alone is not at risk, conversely, risk if a crowded place and “proximity” rituals).
See you tomorrow
Dr Guillaume Zagury
Specialist in International Public Health (DES)
HEC
Practitioner
Consultant in Medical Innovations (France, Israel, China)
In China for 20 years
« All success is collective and so thank you to our teams (Dr. Bachir Athmani, Carole Gabay, Richard Coffre,…), as well as to our patrons, and of course to the Paul Benetot Foundation/Matmut Group.
