We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis units”, ministries…) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on its “country & region analysis” and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and of Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “MINUTE”: 2 graphs and 2 maps (=> 80% of the information)
1. TIME: France in 10 days
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy
2. SPACE: 2 gradients
– East / West
– North / South
3. A deconfinement that has already started for some countries: note that some countries have never confined (Sweden)
4. Prevalence – 4 main active hotbeds:
- Americas (+/- 50%)
- Europe (34%)
- Middle East (8%)
- Russia (5%)
———————————————————- ——————————-
II. 360 ° analysis (20 minutes): D 36
A. Treatment: according to some studies, chloroquine does not show efficacy on Covid
A.1 In the USA:
The results published Tuesday of the largest study to date, funded by the United States government, have shown no benefit of hydroxychloroquine against disease caused by the new coronavirus compared to standard treatment. On the contrary, it revealed an excess mortality with the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or associated with azithromycin.
A.2 In Europe: European Medicines Agency
According to the EMA, data from clinical studies of these treatments are “still very limited and inconclusive and the beneficial effects of these drugs on Covid-19 disease have not been demonstrated”.
A.3 As we can see, these expert debates are extremely frequent in Health:
- Professor Montagnier, versus the scientific community on the origin of the vaccine
- The Academy of Medicine in France, which offers mandatory masks (whatever their type) versus the WHO which recommends masks but not in general …
A.4 Let the researchers do their work, without adding media stress to them… because there will always be as many scientific opinions as there are French people (like coaches for France national team or President Trump, etc.).
A.5 Regarding this protocol, we still maintain it in the Coved Score, certainly at a very low level (1/30), because we are still awaiting the opinion of Professor Raoult (especially since several countries use on a large-scale basis).
B. France D36: “The Scissor Effect” is confirmed
B.1 Scissor effect certainly, but hospitalization figures still high (+/- 1500 / day) for a “country” at D36 of “soft confinement”:
B.1.1 Decreasing hospitalizations:
France: new hospitalizations and discharges, daily evolution of the scissor effect
B.1.2 Resuscitation: pending a rebound (around May 18)
Given the average incubation period (+/- 1 week), resuscitation services must be ready from May 18, for potential “rebound”. A minimum of 50% capacity must be reached (currently we are still at 70%: 4870/7000)
Occupancy rate of resuscitation beds in France
C. Europe: the dynamic of deconfinement is taking shape
C.1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
C.2. A Europe of deconfinement at different speeds depending on the favorable epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, …) or the health policy chosen (Sweden: no confinement)
C.2.1 The firsts: Eastern and Northern Europe
The 3 Southeast European countries will be interesting to follow.
C.2.2 The seconds: including Western Europe …
D. World: Latin America, 2nd continent in terms of incidence…
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
D.1. Prevalence: 1.8 million active cases confirmed under observation
– Prevalence: 1,849 000 active cases confirmed under observation
D.1.1 Geographic vision: the USA follows Europe. And Europe is 10 Wuhan!
D.1.2 Continent: 4 hotbeds, Americas (1/2) – Europe (1/3) – Middle East (1/10) – Russia (1/20)
D.1.3 Country: “Top 10”, UK ahead of the Europeans
Prevalence by country by time:
TOP 10 Prevalence:
United States 777k (yesterday 743k)
UK 123k (yesterday 119k)
Italy 107k (yesterday 107k)
Spain 105k (yesterday 102k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Turkey 81k (yesterday 81k)
Russia 62k (yesterday 57k)
Germany 42k (yesterday 43k)
Netherlands 32k (yesterday 31k)
Belgium 27k (yesterday 27k)
D.2. Impact: America still in epidemic phase
D.2.1 Figures: 102,000 new cases detected yesterday
D.2.2 Time: still in the epidemic phase
Incidence (new cases /day) and new daily deaths worldwide
D.2.3 Space Vision: South America (1/5 of the new cases reported) enters the loop
D.2.3.1 Continent – 50% of new cases are in the Americas
D.2.3.2 Top 10 Countries: Ecuador becomes an important epidemic center in Latin America …
Top 7 of the day
of countries with new cases, this day and evolution
By country: 4 levels
United States 36k (29k yesterday)
Ecuador 12k
Russia 6k (5k yesterday)
United Kingdom 5k5k yesterday)
Spain 7k (5k yesterday)
Brazil 4k (4k yesterday)
Turkey 3k (3k yesterday)
Italy 3k (3k yesterday)
Canada 3k
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Mexico, Peru, Belarus, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Germany, France: 1 to 2k
D.3. In the Americas:
D.3.1 USA: Usual East-West gradient
D.3.2 In the absence of preventive measures, America risks eventually presenting a very high number of cases / million inhabitants…
D.3.3 But his health system is in shock:
America, which deplores 45,000 victims to date, has an unsaturated health system (no overload / number of intensive care beds)
E. TOMORROW?
Reinforcement of our website with many iconographic resources, various headings resulting from our analyzes for 89 days (“Geopathology”, “Scratch Test”, “Coro-Bourse”,…), which we will gradually place in the “Hub” & “headings Iconographic Resources ”
Keep in mind the “4M reflex” to protect yourself and especially to protect the most vulnerable
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
- the entire “GCRMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) type team: Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Hughes Lefort, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb…) to this project of existing,
- the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his historical contribution)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 89 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!
