We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on its “country & region analysis” and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and of Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory , Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, …)
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “MINUTE” : 2 graphics and 2 maps (=> 80% of the information)
1. France – Time vision: we are following Italy 10 days later
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy
2 . Space: double gradient East-West & North-South
Source : Santé Publique France
3. In Europe: Epidemiological green light for different countries
4. At the global level:
Half of the active cases declared in the Americas, a third in Europe, 10% in the Middle East.
Source : John Hopkins University
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II. 360° analysis (20 minutes) : D40
A. COVIDMINUTE : a “pioneering and innovative” team at the service of public health and education :
A.1 Daily epidemiological analysis…. as of January 28, following the emerging epidemic in China :
This daily post, through its rational and global approach, has enabled the French Community to calmly face the 3 challenges of the moment: new epidemic, China (language, data, …) and over-information.
A.2 Simple and visual figures :
A.3 Memos (20 years of experience serving the greatest number) :
You know well the 3M created since February 2, 2020, intended for the general public and essential :
And recently at the request of health professionals, the “3M” adapted to a hospital environment (significant risk of contamination in contact with patients) and illustrated by my colleague Dr Hugues Lefort, whom I thank: 4M
A.4 Minute plans to gain height and get to the point :
Deconfinement strategy: with the “3M3T” approach which is the only effective in our eyes.
The “Decision Maker Dilemma”: what decision… and when
A.5 Scores ahead of several weeks to learn to “Think like a Professional” :
Covidscore (20 mars) : essential tool taken up by a large number whose digital version is imminent
Covexit (16 avril) : with its digital and regional version in a very short future.
A.6 And different educational innovations that we will deliver to you quickly …
B. France D40: 3 important indicators are improving
B.1 A scissor effect finally confirmed for 3 days :
Note that confinement is mechanically bearing fruit, since we are finally passing under the bar of 1000 new cases of hospitalization / day
B.2 Less busy resuscitation
B.3 A daily decrease in mortality (less than 200 / day) with a regional differential (to be brought back to the ages of the populations, etc.) and to be monitored:
B.4 Deconfinement (place, age, profession) can now be seriously considered at different geographic levels :
C. Europe: the dynamics of deconfinement are taking shape
C.1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
C.2 A Europe of deconfinement at 3 speeds depending on the epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, …) or their health policy (Sweden: no confinement):
C.2.1 Countries that deconfinate
C.2.2 The countries on the plateau :
C.3 Countries not yet on the plateau :
D. World: The United Kingdom is ahead of the Europeans …
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.
D.1 Stabilization prevalence: 1,878,000 active cases confirmed under observation
Prevalence: 1.8 million active cases confirmed under observation visu
D.1.1 Geographic vision :
Source : John Hopkins University
D.1.2 Continent: Europe 1/3 of cases and 2/3 of deaths to date visu
D.1.3 Country: “Top 10”: Germany decreasing
United States 786k (yesterday 777k)
United Kingdom 123k (yesterday 119k)
Italy 106k (yesterday 107k)
Spain 105k (yesterday 105k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Turkey 79k (yesterday 81k)
Russia 68k (yesterday 62k)
Germany 41k (yesterday 42k)
Netherlands 33k (yesterday 32k)
Belgium 28k (yesterday 27k)
D.2. Incidence: 85,000 new cases detected yesterday
D.2.1 Incidence: 85,000 new cases detected yesterday visu
United States 31k (yesterday 36k)
Russia 7k (6k yesterday)
Brazil 6k (4k yesterday)
United Kingdom 5k (5k yesterday)
Spain 4k (5k yesterday)
Peru 4k
Turkey 3k (3k yesterday)
Italy 2k (3k yesterday)
Canada 2k (yesterday 3k)
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Mexico, Belarus, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, France, Portugal: 1 to 2k
Continent: 50% of new cases are in the Americas (visu)
D.2.2 Comparative evolution of declared mortality (time / space) visu
Note that this indicator is still debatable, since some countries:
– do not have enough tests available
– do not or rarely declare cases in their retirement homes (thus Belgium represents 53% of deaths declared in “Ehpad” and France 38%).
– death certificates can be filled with variable geometry….
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective”, thanks to:
the whole “Medical” team of the “GCRMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Hughes Lefort, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb ,, …) which allow to this project of existing,
the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his historical contribution)
the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
We also thank the Paul Foundation
If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!
