We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on its “country & region analysis” and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and of Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory , Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, …)
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 ° MINUTE”: 2 graphs and 2 maps (=> 80% of the information)
1. France – time vision: we are following Italy 10 days later
Comparative chronological evolution of intensive care cases France / Italy
2 . France – Forecast: intensive care beds available (the stake)
- Post end of lockdown projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (D7 with an upsurge to be expected around April 18, and the influx of patients C-)
3. 3-speed Europe: peak – plateau – epidemic phase
Community countries in epidemic control phase:
4. Worldwide: half of the 2 million active cases in the Americas and a third in Europe
A.The Government follows our end of lockdown scheme and our Covexit table
A.1 As expected, a gradual end of lockdown with 2 conditions and 3 actions
A.2 These solutions, known for several weeks, will only be applied from May 11 …
. note that Polynesia begins its progressive end of lockdown tomorrow (no need for certification, respect for M3 barrier gestures, …) and will be a good pilot laboratory for our regions.
..epidemiological criteria are met: 58 cases since March 1, 49 recoveries, 1 hospitalization, 9 people under surveillance at home, 2345 tests performed and 0 deaths.
A.3 Our CovidExit Regions dashboard will allow you to have visibility and anticipate “green lights”:
We will offer you this item very regularly.
B. France: scissors effect still in progress, 3 indicators
B.1 Number of new C (+) cases declared (2822): downward trend following containement, but still around 3000 cases per day (roughly: 50% in Ephad and Medico-sanitary Establishment) despite more than 40 days of containement.
B.2 Hospitalizations: 700 new hospitalizations yesterday for 800 discharges
B.3 intensive care C (+); decrease in all regions
- 4,387 C (+) beds occupied in France (- 200 / yesterday)
- Ile-de-France: still more than 2000 occupied beds
- Hospitalizations C (+): objective is not to exceed 3000 cases after
C. Europe with 2 gradients and 3 speeds
C.1 An east / west gradient
C.2 3-speed Europe
D. Worldwide : 4 billion confined, 3 million historical cases declared, 2 million active cases (and soon 200 k deaths)
D.1 Prevalence: Stabilization of cases at 2 million active cases declared
D.1.1 Chronological evolution: 2 million active cases declared and 3 million historical cases
-Epidemic growth: 3 million historical cases
Source : John Hopkins University
–Geographical vision : 4 centers America, Europe, Middle East, Russia.
Source : John Hopkins University
- By continent: Americas, 50% of active cases declared
Top 10 countries
USA 831k ( Yesterday 813k)
UK 139k (Yesterday 136k)
Italy 105k ( Yesterday 106k)
France 95k ( Yesterday 97k)
Spain 84k ( Yesterday 85k)
Russia 84k ( Yesterday 79k)
Turkey 73k ( Yesterday 76k)
Germany 36k ( Yesterday 38k)
Netherlands 34k ( Yesterday 33k)
Brazil 34k ( Yesterday 31k)
2. Incidence: 69,000 new cases detected yesterday
| 2020/4/28 | 2020/4/27 | 2020/4/26 | 2020/4/25 | 2020/4/24 | 2020/4/23 |
| 68,748 | 64,924 | 70,016 | 84,800 | 102,745 | 80,640 |
Chronological view: Destabilization of the numbers of new cases declares a 70k / day
By continent: Brazil, and Russia are in the epidemic growth phase and are joining the United States.
By country: USA & BRic in epidemic phase –
United States 20k (20k yesterday)
Russia 6k (6k yesterday)
Brazil 5k (4k yesterday): doubling of cases every 6 days (Ditto for Mexico)
United Kingdom 4k (4k yesterday)
France 3k (4k yesterday)
Spain 3k (3k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Turkey, Belarus, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Canada, Peru, Mexico, Ecuador, Chile: 1 to 2k
3.In the USA:
3.1 Gross Figures: 1 million cases declared and 50k deaths (5%)
Source: Politico
3.2 The USA first of the top 11
3.3 Geographic distribution: East West gradient
Source Politico
3.4 In more detail:
3.5 The indicator reflecting the strategy of the system (Mortality / million inhabitants):
A priori low overall success (160 currently) and will be at least at the same level as Western Europe in the end (Italy 453 and France 352)
Raw figures: remember the peration of President Trump: if we present less than 200,000 victims it will be a success (i.e. Italian figures compared to the American population 6 times higher: 6 x 30 k deaths as projection)
The best indicator of the reuse of a health system is the number of deaths per million inhabitants: the United States with a current figure of 179 in the midst of an epidemic risks the future in countries with low strategic efficiency.
3.6 Next step: is the peak reached? 2 encouraging elements
Decrease in new journalists cases: Always 25k new cases per day but far from the 38k peak 6 days ago (see table 3.2)
Decrease in daily mortality observed:
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective”, thanks to:
the whole “Medical” team of the “GCMN” type: Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, ,, …) which allows this project to exist,
the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would have been possible.
all historical financial sponsors (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis & Société de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, …) who work for “Citizen Actions”
We also thank the Paul Foundation
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Do not hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!
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