We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the elementary COURTESY to QUOTE us.
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Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai specialist & consultant in international public health, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than 3 months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on his “analysis countries & regions ”and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”. Our new site is launched today! Come and discover many iconographic resources and the different sections from our analyzes for 86 days (“Geopathology”, “Stress Test”, “Coro-Bourse”, …)
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A. No right to a 2nd error:
1. Just over M1 (March 17 – April 22) from the start of confinement, 3.5 million French people (5.7% of the population) were in contact with the virus (Institut Pasteur).
2. This “1st half” with emergency confinement, proved to be particularly deadly (20.8 k deaths) with a decrease in new cases, but with figures still above 1500 new cases / day.
3. The “2nd half”, without confinement risks showing a heavier balance sheet… in the absence of “3M3T” measures in their strict globality (which we have been repeating for several months).
4. Particularly in nursing homes (the weakest and most vulnerable link): if nothing is done, a new health disaster is announced
– 700,000 residents in around 7,400 Ehpad (roughly: 100 residents / Ehpad)
– Population most at risk: 95% of deaths by Covid concern the 65 years +
– 8000 deaths (40% of the total deaths observed) have so far been observed in nursing homes, or around 1% of residents.
– Already in short supply of:
- staff before the crisis (a plan with a doubling of caregivers had to be submitted to the Assembly) and consequently, we will have to be very vigilant on this aspect
- equipment with a glaring absence of 3M3T (recently: 200 masks in all and for all for 100 residents and their caregivers for an indefinite period)
– Example of the Mougins nursing home, where a case quickly spread to a large number of residents (high contagiousness in an nursing home environment).
Consequently, to control this direct threat to the 700,000 residents, it will be imperative to:
. test all residents (on a regular basis, to be defined) and isolate the C +
.. very effectively equip all caregivers (already exhausted) and reorganize the guards: so if 8 day nurses in 4 different buildings, it is inconceivable to see only one nurse at night covering the 4 buildings (risk of significant contamination)
5. By the end of the week, our team will present a concrete action plan for deconfinement: “If I were President”
B. Europe and France J38: the dynamics of deconfinement are taking shape
1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
Source : John Hopkins University
2. A Europe of deconfinement at 3 speeds depending on their epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, …) or their health policy (Sweden).
Source : C`est dans l`air
3. France: it will deconfinate (with 15 days delay in many countries), because a slow epidemiological slowdown is noted:
3.1 France follows Italy with a 10-day lag: 13th day in a row where there is a drop in cases in intensive care
4. Our resuscitation beds are slowly emptying … but they are still massively occupied (70%):
5. The deconfinement will be done gradually according to different parameters: the density C (+) observed, the age of the populations, the type of profession, …
Source : C’est dans l’air
C. World: from a game of 3 to a game of 4; Russia invites itself
With the contribution of Marie and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
1. Prevalence: 1.7 million active cases confirmed under observation
1.1 World
Source : John Hopkins University & C’est dans l’air
1.2 Continent : 80% Westerners, 8% in the Middle East, 5% in Russia
1.3 Country: “Top 10” United States and United Kingdom in epidemic phase, Western Europe in stabilization phase
- United States 689k (yesterday 675k)
- United Kingdom 111k (yesterday 108k)
- Italy 108k (yesterday 108k)
- Spain 100k (yesterday 99k)
- France 98k (yesterday 98k)
- Turkey 78k (yesterday 75k)
- Germany 48k (yesterday 50k)
- Russia 48k (yesterday 43k)
- Netherlands 30k (yesterday 29k)
- Belgium 26k (yesterday 25k)
2. Impact: possible slowdown… but watch out for 3 new “emerging” households (Brazil, Russia, India)
Note that the number of cases diagnosed is an indicator to be taken with caution (depending on the number of tests)
2.1 Number: 72,000 new cases detected yesterday
2.2 Temporal vision: 98,000 new cases detected yesterday
2.3 Vision Space
2.3.1 Continent – From 3 to 4 centers: United States, Europe, Middle East, and Russia
2.3.2 Top 10 Countries: America still in epidemic phase
By country
- United States 24k (25k yesterday)
- Russia 6k (4k yesterday): 5 days in a row with more than 4k cases / day
- Turkey 5k (5k yesterday)
- United Kingdom 4k (5k yesterday)
- Spain 4k (2k yesterday)
- Italy 3k (2k yesterday)
- Brazil 2k (2k yesterday)
- France 3k (2k yesterday)
- India, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Canada, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal: 1 to 2k
3. Mortality: one of the real relevant indicators for evaluating the different “Country” approaches to Public Health
– The real indicator to watch (even if questionable in terms of under-reporting!) Is the number of deaths / million inhabitants: Spain 43 – Italy 394 – Wuhan 355 – France 263 – USA (at present) 123 -… .. Germany 46… .. Czech Republic 17- Israel 16- Korea 5 – Japan 2
– Note the unfavorable score for Belgium which holds this sad world record: 518 deaths per million inhabitants … only the United States could exceed them in the current dynamic (macabre accounting: a balance sheet of 180k deaths would be required – currently the death toll is 45k victims including 2700 yesterday)
D.TOMORROW ?
Reinforcement of our site (and no longer a blog !!) with many iconographic resources, different headings from our analyzes for 86 days (“Geopathology”, “Stress Test”, “Coro-Bourse”, …) … probably some ” bugs ”… but above all a positive dynamic.
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Masks-Manual-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most fragile.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
- the entire “Medical” team of the “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb ,, …) which allow this project to ‘to exist,
- the entire IT team: Mathieu Bouquet at the head, Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (webmaster)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie,Alison …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Societe de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and, Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 84 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me ( guillaumez888@hotmail.com ).
- Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work 🙂
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