A. After lockdown: an infographicto understand everything
1.A slow process: 2 conditions and 3 actions
2.According to epidemiological data, some countries may consider ending lockdown
Switzerland,Germany, Austria, the Scandinavian countries: these countries are 15 days aheadof the others to revive the economy.
A 3-speed Europe, illustrated in the graphicsbelow:
3.CovExit Scoring: France is not ready yet(15/40), even if the epidemiologicalplateau seems to be confirmed
Thisscoring is updated according to the measures implemented or considered by theauthorities, which can change daily.
4.It is locally, at the regional level, that decisions will be taken
The situation being heterogeneous on the French territory, some regions or some “départements”will probably end lockdown before the others.
Soon, wewill very be able to provide some tips to help local authorities planning theend of lockdown.
B.Europe and France D31: the “scissor effect” is on the horizon
1. Europe: an East West gradient observed interms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
Source: John Hopkins University
2.Europe : 3 groups of countries going at a different pace
(see the exact situations of European countrieson the curves presented in point A.3 above)
Accordingto the epidemiological situation, we see the potential dates to start liftinglockdown:
– Denmark:April 15
– Spain:April 25
-Switzerland: April 26
– Germany:May 3
– France:May 11 (after May 8th holiday weekend)
– Italy:May 13
– UnitedKingdom: still in the epidemic phase.
3.France D31: good dynamic with a potential “scissor effect” which needs to beconfirmed
Francefollows the same dynamic as Italy … 10 days later
ICU beds(least questionable indicator) demand has somewhat dropped a little.
But theoccupancy rate remains at a substantial level (72% – 6457/9000): we are on a“high plateau”.
For thepast 2 days, hospitalizations have dropped and we’re waiting for theconfirmation of a “scissor” effect.
4.To sum it up: 6 key figures
110,000cases since the start of the epidemic
18,000deaths to date
33,000already “cured”, sent back home
31,000cases currently in our hospitals
6,300 cases(20% of hospitalized) in intensive care
2,600 newcases hospitalized yesterday
C.World: more than 140,000 deaths in 3 months and almost 1.5 million active cases
With the contributionof Mathieu Bouquet and Stéphane, companions from day 1, whom I thank again fortheir amazing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which areextremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example:availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore majorunder-reporting in certain countries. .
1.Prevalence: 1.5 million active cases confirmed under observation
Map: distribution of active cases worldwide
Source: John Hopkins University
Top 10 countries: TheUnited States largely ahead in terms of active cases (more than all of Europe)
Top 10 countries: United States and UnitedKingdom in epidemic phase, Italy, Spain and France in stabilization phase
United States 583k (yesterday 564k) France 114k (yesterday 100k) Italy 107(yesterday 105k) Spain 89k (yesterday 88k) United Kingdom 89k (yesterday 85k)Turkey 65k (yesterday 62k) Germany 56k (yesterday 57k) Netherlands 26k (yesterday 25k) Russia 25k (yesterday 22k) Belgium 22k (yesterday 22k)
By continent: 80% of cases diagnosed in theWestern world (equally distributed between Western Europe and the UnitedStates)
2.Impact: possible slowdown… but watch out for 3 new “emerging” sources (Brazil,Russia, India)
Note thatthe number of cases diagnosed is an indicator to be taken with caution(depending on the number of tests).
Incidence: 98,000 new cases detected yesterday
By continent – 3 sources: United States, Europeand the Middle East
By country: America still in epidemic phase
D.Tomorrow
-Comparative study on the episode of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
– Americaremains the current epicenter of the epidemic… who’s next?
-Evolutionary scoring: CovidScore (new countries) / Covexit (regional)
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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Im thankful for the article. ReallyCool.