PREAMBLE
Our Covidminute.com team is made up of volunteers (apart from computer scientists!) And aims to:
- help decision makers make the right decisions
- reassure the population by providing technically flawless and “ahead” information on the media (more than the current trends and trends)
We had since the beginning of the epidemic “reassured” the French community by a daily newsletter distributed since January 28 on the Chinese messaging WeChat. First with a few hundred people, to reach more than 4,000 followers after 3 weeks.
The Chinese authorities having prohibited the dissemination of any Covid analysis in early March, we have migrated to a site and a mobile app which is ready (“all in one”).
If by chance, you had openings (public funding, patron or sponsor, …), to help us improve, maintain and disseminate this application, do not hesitate to contact me: guillaume@covidminute.com.
We offer an “all in one” application, including a minute analysis for breakfast, because we are legitimate (I have been producing this daily report for 58 days!), Have technological skills (see mapping, …), and have the more often a step ahead of the understanding of the situation and the challenges due to our experience of the epidemic in Asia.
The whole team (Dr Athmani, Carole Gabay, Mathieu Bouquet, Stephane, Laetitia, Marie, …) thanks you for your many encouragements.
Dr Guillaume Zagury
A. China : a great wall to avoid the “second wave”
1. Gross and relative figures
About 50 new cases per day (average) in Shanghai and Beijing, or about 800 cumulatively.
2. Know how to read curves
- Emotional vision: the first reading of the curve of imported cases can cause some panic. The numbers seem to be exploding.
rational vision: there are approximately 27,000 daily arrivals from abroad, and around 50 cases detected, most often at an asymptomatic stage.
The accumulation of cases certainly gives an impression of explosion, but the daily number of these new cases has been relatively stable for several days, and they are well identified and managed (as well as those around them).
3. A process well in place
From 7 to 23 hours of procedures between landing and leaving the airport: questioning of recent trips, examination (temperature, …), often “nasal swab” test, administrative process, …
4. Regulations that are constantly adapting
- The control measures have gradually tightened over the past 2 weeks.
- Planes bound for Beijing are redirected to airports in the periphery or to Tianjin for passenger screening.
- In the region: closure for 15 days of Hong Kong and Singapore airports to non residents since yesterday
The following testimony from my friend Mathieu is quite eloquent
China is taking precautions and using technology.
- Since Wednesday, all new arrivals are subjected to the screening test, and they are more and more to have to carry out quarantine in a dedicated hotel (at their expense). These measures are in addition to the investment that China is making to avoid a resurgence of contamination. As a reminder, all new recent cases in China are imported cases.
- Entrance door remotely controlled by the police. The police have just passed by and equipped me with new equipment. My apartment door is now equipped with a motion detector (see photo below, equipment marked with China Telecom, probably with a SIM card inside) which sends this information (opening / closing of the door) to the police.
- Whenever I go out to collect packages or throw out trash (space dedicated only to me to avoid sharing my trash with people who have not traveled abroad recently), I have to do more share of each door opening on Wechat to the local police in a WeChat group created for the occasion with 8 other people who return from abroad and live in the same residence.
- As a reminder: I do not cough, I do not have a fever, I have absolutely no symptoms but simply, I come back from France and the government of Shanghai does not want to take any risk.
- If we calculate the cost that this represents for the Chinese government, the total of my return to China cost at least 300 euros in terms of time, material, allocation of means of transport, etc., without counting the fixed costs to install the organization and planning. And we are thousands or tens of thousands to return to China in the past week.
6. Technological innovations
Dans les jours à venir, nous vous montrerons comment les innovations technologiques ont complètement bouleversé la prise en charge épidémique.
B. “Crash test” : Africa (monitoring)
For lack of means, the war will be above all epidemiological (closing of borders and confinement). If people don’t move, the virus won’t move!
- Together with my colleague, Dr Bachir Athmani, we assess a health system every day when faced with potential massive influxes of patients.
- Remember that in the current state of knowledge, 15% have severe forms requiring hospitalization and 5% a stay in medical intensive care for 1 to 2 weeks generally), based on experience in China ( including more than 90% of cases in Hubei).
1. The virus is geographically present in 80% of African countries
Cases have been detected in 44 of the continent’s 54 countries, but the virus has apparently not yet spread. The number of cases detected is still quantitatively low: 1,800 cases, including 57 deaths, or around 3% of lethality.
2. Figures and analysis
- Spatial vision: Egypt (294 cases detected / 8 deaths), Ethiopia (9), Algeria (139/11), Senegal (56), Ghana (21/1), Morocco (109/3), Tunisia (60/1) , Burkina Faso (75/3), Togo, Côte d’Ivoire (14), Guinea (2), Mauritania (2), Gabon (3/1), Kenya (15), Rwanda (17), Uganda (1) , Sudan (2/1), Cameroon (27), Namibia (3), Congo (23/1), South Africa (240), Central African Republic (3), Equatorial Guinea (6), Benin (2), Liberia ( 2), Somalia, Djibouti, Nigeria (22), Gambia, Zambia (3), Niger (2), Chad, Angola (2).
- Vision temporelle : une évolution prévisible depuis 1 semaine
3. Continent at risk for multiple reasons
- Who says war (Central Africa,…) says epidemic.
- Difficulty enforcing social distancing: living conditions (30% of the population lives in shantytowns, places of worship very crowded, megacities like Lagos, etc.)
- Prevalence of AIDS-type comorbidities: South Africa has the most Covid patients – 402 cases – coupled with one of the highest AIDS rates in the world.
4. It is illusory to play on the therapeutic side
- Developed countries like Italy and France are often already saturated.
- The medical network is insufficient: 20 times less general practitioner per inhabitant than France
- Technological equipment (intensive care units, etc.) is also insufficient: I was discussing it yesterday on Tunisian TV. Tunisia has 350 resuscitation beds for 11 million inhabitants, 3 times less per capita than France.
5. The only solution will be preventive
- The majority of countries have understood this, and are adopting the only weapon at their disposal: prevention by confinement (allow 3 weeks to see its effects) and the closing of borders.
- The example of Italy seems to have made a big impression.
- The term confinement is still variable geometry: schools, curfew, threshold of meetings, …)
- Some countries to salute having taken rapid preventive measures and which it will be interesting to follow: Rwanda, Mauritius.
6. An important advantage: youth
The continent’s population is young, while the severe forms of the disease and mortality primarily affect the oldest (65 years and over).
C. France – Living with D20, confinement D9
Period of uncertainty after a week of confinement: if some “furry” have spent 4 years in the trenches, we can try to spend 4 weeks (between 1 and 6 weeks) at home.
1. Incidence: + 2,450 new confirmed cases (3,200 yesterday)
We are still in the epidemic growth phase.
2. Prevalence: 17.9 k in observation (16k yesterday)
- The doubling time remains stable at 5 days.
- Note that the figure of 22,000 total cases reported by the media is, in my opinion, not a relevant indicator, since it includes the historical cases healed, the deaths and the cases currently under observation.
- So if I say that: China presents 88,000 cases … this is true cumulatively, but 98% are cured and there have been no indigenous cases for several days !
3. Comparative dynamics (/ Italy): France seems to be deviating slightly from Italian development over the past three days
- The average trend for the last 3 days is to slow down compared to Italy a week ago (see graph below).
- However, be careful with the data and compare what is comparable: the Italians now have a more case-oriented strategy, whereas we are much less so. Thus, according to some, but to be confirmed, France has tested approximately 2 times fewer people than Italy at the same stage of the epidemic.
4. Geographical distribution and health system: +/- 10% of cases in intensive care
- Key figure released yesterday, concerning the distribution of mortality which joins the data observed in Wuhan: in France, 85% of deceased patients are over 70 years old.
- Resuscitation and intensive care: 2,500 cases, a third of which are less than 60 years old.
- Over 1,000 deaths (1,100) including 186 yesterday in 1 month, but which does not take into account deaths in nursing homes possibly linked to the virus.
- France, like many European countries, is not in the lead in terms of protective equipment and screening tests. So let’s welcome the order for around 30,000 kits for the weekend.
- Mulhouse, the “French Bergamo”, where the President did well to go to come into contact with the carers, for the extraordinary work provided.
5. Regional analysis
6. To note
- Interesting to follow the case of Morocco, which made the decision to treat all hospitalized cases with Plaquenil, for 4 days: equivalent to a large-scale clinical trial.
- Paradoxically, the hexagonal plant producing Plaquenil (chloroquine), potentially in receivership, will perhaps benefit from a second chance (orders by Sanofi, …)
- The French overseas departments and territories are also affected: 23 cases detected in Guyana, and Cayenne raises the tone in the fight against the coronavirus. Like several cities in France, the administrative center institutes a night curfew from this evening (March 24, 2020). Decision motivated by the excessive number of sprains to the limitation of displacements. Note also that close Haiti observed 2 cases yesterday.
D. Incidence worldwide: the United States takes over, slight improvement in Italy on D14 (see 03/10/2020)
Thanks to Stéphane, a companion from the start, for his participation.
1. Incidence: 40k new cases diagnosed – Acceleration of the pandemic
These are very important levels since in Wuhan, the number of new cases notified daily was around 3,000 (although there was a likely underreporting due to the limited number of tests available)
2. Chronological vision
3. Geographic vision
- Global vision by country
- Vision by continent: the Americas
- Country vision: top 7
- United States 11,100
- Italy 5,200
- Spain 4,700
- Germany 4,000
- France 2,400
- Iran 1,800
- United Kingdom 1,400
- Italy: the number of new cases detected has not decreased like the last 2 days, but the trend confirms a slowdown on D15 (we will see tomorrow, if the containment produces the expected effects). Bergamo is the most affected city, some invoke the sold-out international European Cup soccer match Atlanta-Valencia as a focal point.
- The United States is now firmly established as the country with the highest number of new cases daily.
D. World: prevalence, 260 K active cases (379 K cumulative) – Faster doubling time
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the following observation yesterday:
- 67 days to reach the first 100,000 prevalence cases
- 11 days for the next 100,000 cases
- 4 days the following 100,000 cases|
1. Time vision (chronological)
- Figures to be taken with caution given the disparity in testing strategies: the epidemic can spread without it being reflected in official figures, if patients are not screened biologically.
- At the current rate, doubling of cases worldwide every 4-5 days (stable).
2. World space vision
- The map of the day shows us 5 outbreaks: Western Europe, United States and Central America, Middle East and to a lesser extent (but to be considered with caution because the means of detection are weaker) West Africa.
- Top 6 countries:
- Italy (54K active cases)
- USA (52k)
- Germany and Spain (33k)
- France (18k).
- At the continental level: a quarter of the current cases are in North America.
F. Geopathology: a world in turbulence awaiting therapeutic solutions …
1. Postponement of the Olympic Games
It is the first time that the Olympic Games have been postponed in peacetime (the previous 3 in 1916, 1940 and 1944 were due to the war). The Tokyo Olympics are likely to take place next year, but will still be called “Tokyo 2020”.
It should be noted that the Paralympic Games could not have taken place anyway, due to the too high risks for patients of the cystic fibrosis or myopathy type.
2. European Union: Europe, yes but which Europe?
- This health crisis is the third crisis that is shaking our European space (after the financial crisis of 2008 and the migrant crisis of 2015).
- It revealed the current limits of the system, because health Europe (like military Europe) did not work: stocks (masks, tests, …), no common policy, …
- Take the example of Italy, which has received almost no material support (aid came from China, Cuba and Russia / even if it is mainly communications operations).
3. Historical rise for Wall Street
This record jump in the Dow Jones index has never been seen in 90 years. It arises because optimism has returned to stock market circles, following the announcement of a massive American stimulus plan ($ 2,000 billion should be allocated soon).
4. United States: what is the dollar cost of human life?
- For President Trump, a shutdown beyond 15 days would be unreasonable and it will quickly return to “business as usual”.
- According to some of these advisers, a severe economic recession would be more dangerous than maintaining the shutdown.
- Even in health terms: mental health (and its corollary of suicides), delayed diagnoses (oncology, etc.), etc.
- This reminds me of the Prime Minister of Singapore’s 2003 statement: “We will not die from SARS, but from its economic consequences”
Coming tomorrow
- Probably a video: we are equipping ourselves
- The impact of new technologies
- A “stress test” on Russia
- Monitoring: Morocco (use of chloroquine), India, Thailand
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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