A. Post confinement: a diagram to understand everything
1. A progressive deconfinement : 2 conditions and 3 actions
We will come back to this process in detail tomorrow.
2. CovExit scoring : France is not yet ready, even if the epidemiological plateau is in sight
This scoring is updated according to the measures implemented or envisaged by the authorities, which themselves change daily.
3. Countries which may consider deconfinement based on epidemiological data
With the curves below, we better understand why Austria, Switzerland and Germany will validate the epidemiological condition within a few days (condition number 1). The D-Day of the start of deconfinement will probably be declared as soon as the tools (condition 2) are / will be available.
4. In summary
We provide 3 visual elements (“global” diagram, “CovExit” scoring and country epidemiological curve) so the key question of deconfinement has no more secrets for you.
This Covidminute.com exclusivity is produced by our team, in advance on media and some crisis units…
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B. CovidScore: daily update
We have included the Czech Republic and Austria, who have mastered prevention and whose health system has not had to endure the wave of patients to be hospitalized observed in other countries (including France).
Note that Morocco, following its policy concerning the wearing of masks and the isolation of patients, passes in front of France. Well done, Kingdom of Morocco !
C. France D25: living with
1. France follows the same dynamic as Italy
Graph: France-Italy comparison of the number of patients and resuscitations
2. A trend that seems favorable : declining figures
Table: evolution (in-out) of the number of intensive care patients by region
The decline in the number of intensive care patients seems to be confirmed in all regions, which should help relieve the health system. At present, only Ile de France is still close to its limits in terms of load / capacity.
Table: number of daily deaths by region
We also observe a decrease in the number of new hospitalizations everywhere in France except in Ile de France.
3. Clinical picture
As a preview, here are the risk factors identified in France in comparison with the data produced in China (the first draft dates back to February 2020).
If numerous epidemiological data from China / world turn out to be common, there are some disparities. We must in particular take into account the local epidemiology (China is for the time being still little confronted with obesity, for instance) and the reliability of the initial data, collected in a very delicate context (few tests available, in particular).
D. World: almost 100 000 deaths and more than 1.1 million active cases
With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet and Stéphane, companions from the beginning, whom I thank again for their unfailing support…
1. Prevalence: 1 145 000 active cases confirmed under observation
Geographical distribution
Source : John Hopkins University
Top 10 countries
USA 426k
Italy 97k
Spain 86k
France 82k
Germany 63k
UK 57k
Turkey 40k
Iran 30k
Brazil, Canada, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland : 13 à 19k
By continent
2. Incidence: 85 000 new cases detected yesterday
Graph: evolution of the number of new daily cases
By country
USA 29k (+3k)
Spain 5k (+11k)
UK 4k (-1k)
Germany 4k (-1k)
France 5k (+1k)
Italy 4k (+0k)
Turkey 4k (+0k)
Iran 2k (-0k)
Peru, Brazil, Canada, India, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden : 1 à 2k
By continent : 3 outbreaks – USA, Europe and Middle East
Graph: evolution of the number of new cases by country
E. Geopathology: viro-confessional (and epidemiological) parallelism
1. Israel: the virus or the Torah
For Passover (Jewish Easter), the rabbis had to obey the dictates of civil and public health, by accepting the use of electronics (virtual meetings, etc.) and by canceling physical religious gatherings.
The evolution of the epidemic in Israel, where the populations most affected in proportion are, by far, the Orthodox religious communities, incites to establish an epidemiological-religious parallel with countries or regions where religious practice is important, and where the spread of the virus has been massive.
2. Is the virus stronger than religion? A gradient to study (local, regional, national)
It is an established fact, viral transmission is slowed down by social distancing measures. Once the epidemic is over, it will be interesting to assess dissemination through the prism of religion. Many research topics are likely to focus on this in the years to come.
In South Korea, in the same way as in France, confessional gatherings (Protestants or assimilated, in this case) were at the origin of the first major outbreak of the epidemic and the spread of the virus to areas more distant (even in the DOM-TOM, for the gathering of Colmar). At a lower level because the epidemic arrived later, we will see in the long term if this type of event could have had an influence in the United States, where religion is important.
As mentioned above, Judaism is also involved: in Israel, 50% of the detected cases concern the 10% of the Jewish population who identify with Orthodox practice.
In the Muslim world, different scenarios have been observed depending on the country:
– the city of Qom (holy place of the Shiite branch) seems to have been the starting point of the epidemic outbreak in Iran from the beginning of February, through shrines and pilgrims,
– a gathering of several thousand people (tabligh) which was held for several days at the end of February in Malaysia accelerated the spread of the virus in South East Asia: foreign worshippers were infected in situ, and in their turn contaminated others following their return to their home countries,
– in contrast, and no doubt in reaction to the evolution observed in Iran, Saudi Arabia adopted very restrictive and immediate measures (closure of Mecca for Hajj, in particular).
In the Catholic sphere, it will be interesting to observe the figures in the Vatican, in Africa or in Brazil.
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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