We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, etc.) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the elementary COURTESY to QUOTE us.
——————————————————————–
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai specialist & consultant in international public health, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than 3 months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on his “analysis countries & regions ”and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”. Our new site will be launched at the beginning of the week and you will be able to put faces on the names …
—————
A. News
1. Reading between the lines: French President’s speech
On the health front, President Macron did well by giving himself time to complete the elements of the “Covexit” (see diagram A.2.), That is to say a progressive and targeted deconfinement: the measures currently under force are extended by one month until May 11.
In terms of communication, it was remarkable by emphasizing the opening of day nurseries and schools (social reasons, …), while from a health point of view, this is very questionable:
1. children are the primary vectors of family infections (fortunately they are not at risk of pathology),
2. it is difficult to set up and maintain barrier measures (mask, hand, meter) in the school setting,
3. in the first countries affected by the epidemic, schools are barely starting to reopen, but only in the least affected regions (in comparison with Western Europe), 3 months after their closure (or even 100 days , for Shanghai).
The resumption (presumably gradual) of the schools will be able to leave the hands free to the parents, who will thus be able to return to work, … and thus to revive the economy, which is undoubtedly the main objective of the calendar outlined yesterday evening.
2. Reminder: 1 successful containment requires 2 conditions and 3 actions
The President and the government will thus have one month to:
– assess whether the epidemiological indicators are favorable (we are monitoring the 2-3 key indicators at regional level),
– install the essential tools: ”3M-3T” (see diagram below). Note that we should reach 100,000 PCR diagnostic tests per day and 20,000 serological tests per day for the 900 laboratories in France on May 1st.
3. The Academy of Medicine follows the recommendations of CovidScore (matrix created a month ago)
The Academy of Medicine has adopted a recommendation that Covid Minute has been announcing for a very long time: isolation of lightweight Covid-19 patients in hotels, in order to curb contagion within homes. This type of measure has been implemented in almost all Asian countries, and has been in force for some time, with various modalities, at least in Italy and Spain, as far as Europe is concerned.
We believe that the 3M (individual) and 3T (public health) measures of CovidScore will be implemented in France by May 11: given the current situation, it would be reasonable for these measures already in place in many others countries are widely adopted with us. It is difficult to want to “do otherwise” in view of our current results. It is estimated that only 10% of French people use a mask when leaving their home to date, compared to more than 95% in the main Asian countries affected by the epidemic.
B. Europe and France D24: the scissors effect takes shape
1. An Europe at different speeds
2 gradients observed: East / West and North / South
Source : John Hopkins
2. France: the scissor effect seems to be taking shape
Tendency to follow with the data to be published this evening: reading the data published yesterday partly covers the weekend, a period when the number of outings and tests is generally lower. There is a regular acceleration of all indicators on Tuesday.
3. France follows the same dynamic as Italy
Italy still seems to have 10 days “in advance”, and seems to have reached not a peak but a high plateau (the occupancy of the intensive care beds being the least questionable indicator).
Note that Italy yesterday presented its lowest daily mortality figure for 3 weeks: 431 deaths (compared to around 1000 per day 2 weeks ago).
3. D Day (“Deconfinement Day”) with variable geometry in Europe
We identify 3 types of countries, on the basis of the patient input / output balance:
1. close to deconfinement (start possible within a week): Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Norway, Germany
2. Beginning of deconfinement in the medium term (1 month) with inflection of the curves: Italy (10th day in a row or reduction in resuscitation cases), Spain (40% reduction in daily deaths in 10 days: from 577 to 950) , France (4 consecutive days of decline in intensive care), …
3. other countries with variable geometry: United Kingdom (in epidemic phase), Sweden (peak expected these days by the authorities), …
4. France: evolution of resuscitation
Our resuscitation beds are always occupied exceptionally high (at 75%, or approximately 7,000 out of 9,000).
We seem to be on the right track, but we must remain vigilant: the new diagnosed cases are always around 2,800 per day (with a heterogeneous evolution between the regions) including 40% in the Ehpad (with under diagnosis likely).
With the arrival of our new site (much more dynamic than this blog), within a few days, you will have access to all the tables of Carole Gabay (our expert in data analysis).
C. World: 120,000 deaths in 3 months and more than 1.35 million active cases
With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
1. Prevalence: 1,357,000 active cases confirmed under observation
Map: distribution of active cases worldwide
Source : John Hopkins University
Top 10 countries: The United States largely in the lead in terms of active cases
Top 10 countries
United States 525k (504 yesterday)
Italy 104 (yesterday 102k)
France 94k (yesterday 91k)
Spain 88k (yesterday 87k)
United Kingdom 77k (yesterday 73k)
Germany 62k (yesterday 64k)
Turkey 56k (yesterday 52k)
Iran 23k
Netherlands 24k (yesterday 23k)
Brazil 22k (yesterday 21k)
By continent: 81% of cases diagnosed in the West (evenly distributed between Western Europe and the United States)
2. Impact: possible slowdown… but watch out for 3 new “emerging” households
The epidemic appears to be accelerating in Brazil, Russia and India.
Possible “stabilization”: 68,000 new cases detected yesterday (watch out for measurement bias)
Graph: evolution of the number of new daily cases
By country: note that the number of cases diagnosed is an indicator to be taken with caution (thus the Americans launch massive campaigns of screening tests and therefore display figures in proportion much higher than many European countries which have only very few tests).
By country
United States 25k (25k yesterday)
United Kingdom 4k (5k yesterday)
France 4k (3k yesterday)
Turkey 4k (5k yesterday)
Spain 3k (5k yesterday)
Netherlands 3k
Russia 3k (2k yesterday)
Italy 3k (4k yesterday)
Iran 2k (2k yesterday)
Germany 1k (2k yesterday)
India, Brazil, Peru, Canada, Belgium, Ireland: 1 to 2k
By continent: the West goes from 83% to 70% of new cases with 3 new potential outbreaks to watch: India, Russia, Brazil
3. USA: the peak in the crosshairs?
America remains the current epicenter of the epidemic.
For the past 3 days, the number of daily deaths observed has stabilized at 1,500. Consequently, the CDC believes that the plateau will soon be possible.
New York case: around 45% of deaths reported for the time being in the United States (10k out of 23k).
4. D-Day: deconfinement in the world
Thanks to Carole Gabay our Data Analysis Expert!Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
Powered byMedicilline
