Moral gain for the future….

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We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.

Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on its “country & region analysis” and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and of Covid-19 in China).

A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory , Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, …)

All our illustrations created for almost 100 days will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).

I. COVID “360 * MINUTE”: 2 graphs and 2 maps (=> 80% of the information)

1. France – Time vision: we are following Italy 10 days later.

 Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy

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2. Space – Hospitalizations: double gradient East-West & North-South

Source: Public Health France

3. In Europe: Epidemiological green light for different countries

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4. Worldwide: half of the active cases declared in the Americas, a third in Europe, 10% in the Middle East.

Source: John Hopkins University

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II. 360 ° analysis (20 minutes): D41 92% of deaths 70Y +

A. Looking to the future

A.1 Healing: more than 98%

In the very great majority of cases it is an infectious pathology which heals favorably, except for people at risk (age 70+, co morbidity), likely to compensate for a pre-existing organic insufficiency. Recall that we are not in the case of Ebola (more than 50% of mortality).

A.2 Spared children

If the disease is contagious (familial cases ++), children are most often asymptomatic (“healthy carriers”) and deaths are exceptional (90% of deaths are over 70 years old).

A.3 Existing effective solutions:

In the absence of pharmacological solutions, barrier measures (3M) have proven their worth.

You know well the memo “3M” (Mask-Main-Meter) created since February 2, 2020, intended for the general public and which is a must.

Similarly caregivers and people at risk (18 M French) must use my memo “4M” (including an illustration made by Hughes Lefort is downloadable on our site).

A.4 Fundamental knowledge

Knowledge, which is globalized and exponential: this should lead to concrete therapeutic results.

Professor Gallo’s team in Baltimore including the GVH (Global Virus Network: more than 30 global laboratories in network since 2005 following the Sars), and from which the future, but still potential vaccine will emerge in early 2021, is currently studying at the fundamental level, possible protective effects of polio or anti-tuberculosis vaccinations (see epidemiological weakness of the virus in Balkan-type countries, where anti-tuberculosis vaccination is compulsory). To be continued, for induced immunological knowledge …

There is no doubt that a pharmacological solution will greatly help politicians and economic actors to solve the impossible: “Dilemne du Decideur”.

A.5 Short and medium term hopes: physical impact (temperature, humidity) or pharmacological

In the short term the concept of temperature (/ humidity) could impact for this respiratory virus: 90% of the cases observed belong to a belt at the latitude level, North / South case gradient in certain countries like Vietnam, low prevalence measured (! ) in some countries like Indonesia, Australia, Thailand or even in Africa (see lack of tests?) ….

Regarding the vaccine, if we must certainly remain cautious (absence of AIDS vaccine after 40 years of research), the scientists are rather optimistic, and we will see if the Baltimore team will be there.

A.6 Caregivers up to par

It was the soldiers on the front who saved the staff from the initial shortcomings.

The system has managed to hold and must remain vigilant for the future (and particularly after May 18).

B. France D40: 3 important indicators are improving

B.1 Hospitalizations – scissor effect is confirmed

We passed yesterday, under the symbolic cap of 500 new hospitalizations / day.

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B.2 Resuscitation less busy for Covid (+)

Less busy but still in pre-saturation (more than 85% of our capacity): 7682 patients in ICU (including 3000 C-) for 9000 beds.

Hence our persistence in the establishment of a structure of 500-1000 beds in Paris, to manage the C (+), in order to release the C (-) requiring care to join the care structures (we do not of medical acts by telemedicine!).

Our team, very often several weeks ahead of the events, persists in this orientation and as we are read in the Ministeres and crisis cells, … I think that the acts will follow either pro actively, or under the epidemiological constraint .

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B.3 Result indicators

Declining daily mortality (less than 200 / day) with a regional differential (viral exposure, density, etc.) and to be monitored:

The important indicator is the number of deaths / Million inhabitant: between Occitania (61) and the Great East (500) a difference of 1 to 8, multiparametric (exposure time, population density, even for some more suitable treatments, …)

C. Europe: the dynamics of deconfinement are taking shape

C.1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality

C.2 A very clear scissor effect in certain countries such as Luxembourg

C.3 A Europe of 3-speed deconfinement

Depending on the epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, …) or their health policy (Sweden: no confinement): we will offer you the epidemiological point tomorrow.

D. World: soon 3 million cases in 4 months and 200k deaths

With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.

Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .

D.1 Prevalence: 2 million cases currently under observation

 D.1.1 Chronological vision:

D.1.2 Geographic vision:

D.1.3 Top 10 countries

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United States 811k (yesterday 786k)

United Kingdom 132k (yesterday 121k)

Italy 106k (yesterday 106k)

Spain 86k (yesterday 105k)

France 94k (yesterday 94k)

Turkey 78k (yesterday 79k)

Russia 73k (yesterday 68k)

Germany 40k (yesterday 41k)

Netherlands 33k (yesterday 33k)

Belgium 28k (yesterday 28k)

D.2. Incidence: the epidemic has slowed down all over Europe

Dynamic vision

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By country (viewed)

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By country

United States 25k (31k yesterday)

Russia 6k (7k yesterday)

United Kingdom 4k (5k yesterday)

Brazil 3k (6k yesterday)

Spain 3k (4k yesterday)

Peru 2k (4k yesterday)

Turkey 2k (3k yesterday)

Italy 2k (2k yesterday)

Canada 1k (yesterday 2k)

India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Belarus, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Franc

D.3. A result indicator that will allow us to question public health policies later: mortality per million inhabitants

D.3.1 3Millions of cumulative cases since the start of the epidemic (January 1)

3.1.2 A first reading grid

Grid with questions about the impact of measurements over time and in space:

Note that this indicator is still debatable, since some countries:

• do not have enough tests available

• do not or rarely declare cases in their retirement homes (thus Belgium represents 53% of deaths declared in “Ehpad” and France 38%).

• death certificates can be filled with variable geometry….

  Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

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Trust and solidarity for this collective fight

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective”, thanks to:

the entire “Medical” team of the “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, …) which allow this project to exist,

the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)

the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.

all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, …) who work for “Citizen Actions”

We also thank the Paul Foundation

If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).

Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!