A. Biology of lockdown’s end: “we don’t make war with our eyes closed”
1. Biological analysis are one of the elements of a global strategy: lockdown + ”3M” (barrier gestures) + “3T”
- Lockdown was useful to limit the spread of the virus, but it persists with a daily number of cases on D31 (> 2 incubation periods) of approximately 2000 new cases / day (see table B / 2)
- End of lockdown is required for reasons of Public Health (C-, mental pathologies type “sliding syndromes” observed in the elderly population), as economic.
- In our view, if we observe the countries that we have categorized in our “Covidscore” table in class A (mortality per million inhabitants <40), they all have one thing in common: strict respect for “3M” (Manual- Mask -Metre). Therefore, understand that the tests are certainly important but above all if the “barrier measures” are already respected (respiratory virus).
2. Tests are part of the “detection” axis, which is essential to limit viral spread, since around 50% of C (+) cases are a little or not at all symptomatic.
3. 2 types of tests for 2 different purposes
3.1. A positive diagnosis (PCR, viral research, nasal swab): currently essential
=> Objective: positive diagnosis (but low negative predictive value: 30% false negatives because dependent operator) as part of a targeted campaign:
.for isolation: whose hostile to freedom aspect (home, hotel, hospitalization …) is of variable geometry according to cultures
.. for tracing contact cases (evaluation) and potential quarantine (14 days).
3.2. The other diagnosis of immunization level (blood, IgG to W3 after recovery): gives individual and collective recoveries
> At individual level
- In the short term, little practical interest in end of lockdown (except for some populations such as nursing staff in Ehpad, etc.).
- 3 elements to be confirmed (still in the process of scientific validation):
. does serological immunity lead to clinical immunity (likely)?
.. at which IgG threshold?
… for how long: seasonal (see flu) or lifelong (see measles)?
-If the answers are positive, this Serocov (+) will be equivalent to a “Universal Passport”
>> At the collective level (global immunity): in the lockdown lift decision at the local level (in particular IDF & Grand Est)
The current state is estimated at around 10% of the population immunized biologically in France (also in Wuhan), which is low. Numerous comparative studies are underway (Germany, Sweden, …).
4. For diagnostic tests, we are starting to build up: political will to go from 150k / week to 450k / week, because we are late to reach the “golden standard” (Korea, Israel, etc.)
- 4.1 Place: international comparisons
- 4.2 Time :
B. France & Europe: “Scissor Effect” confirmed in France
1. A scissor effect in progress:
1.1 At national level: on D31 of lockdown, we are still turning around 1500 hospitalizations per day (high plateau)
1.2. Geographically:
Source : santé publique (dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr)
1.3 At regional dynamic level: IDF still first and 40% of the cases diagnosed are in Ephad (= risk)
2. France follows the Italian model with 10 days lag:
3. Intensive care: decrease in all regions (it will take 15 days in a row)
4. End of lockdown (place, age, profession) can now seriously be envisaged in France, and is already starting 15 days in advance in certain countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, …):
C. World: Half of the planet under lockdown (unique in history)
With the contribution of Mathieu Bouquet, Stéphane, and Marie Claude, companions from the beginning, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.
1. Prevalence: 1 660 000 active cases confirmed under observation
1.1 Geographical point of view: 10 “Wuhan” in Europe and America is on the way …
Source : John Hopkins University
1.2 Continent: 85% of active cases in Europe & the Americas:
1.3 Country: “Top 10”: USA current epicenter (40 +%)
Top 10 countries
- USA 675k (yesterday 652k)
- UK 108k (yesterday 104k)
- Italy 108k (yesterday 108k)
- Spain 99k (yesterday 101k)
- France 98k (yesterday 97k)
- Turkey 75k (yesterday 72k)
- Germany 50k (yesterday 53k)
- Russia 43k (yesterday 39k)
- Netherlands 29k (yesterday 29k)
- Belgium 25k (yesterday 24k)
- Mapping :
2. Incidence : “BRI” must be monitored
Figures : 69 k new cases yesterday (with with all the reserves of use on this indicator)
Time: stabilization
Continent: 45% of new cases are in the Americas, 25% in Europe and 13% in the Middle East
By country
- USA 25k (24k yesterday)
- UK 5k (6k yesterday)
- Turkey 5k (4k yesterday)
- Russia 4k (6k yesterday)
- Spain 2k (4k yesterday)
- Italy 2k (3k yesterday)
- Brazil 2k (2k yesterday)
- France 2k (1k yesterday)
- India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Peru, Canada, Belarus, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal: 1 to 2k
3. Mortality: one of the real relevant indicators for evaluating the different “Country” approaches of Public Health
The real indicator to monitor (even if questionable in terms of under-reporting!) is the number of deaths / Million inhabitants: Spain 437 Italy 394 Wuhan 355 – France 263 -USA (for the moment) 123 -… ..Germany 46… .. Czech republic 17 Israel 16 Korea 5 Japan 2
4. Global vision of evolving dynamic :
- Americas
D. TOMORROW ?
We will launch our site (and no longer a blog !!) with many other iconographic resources, easily accessible analyzes, different sections from the analyzes that we have published for 84 days (geopathology, “Crash test”,“Coro-bourse”, etc.).
… Probably some “bogues”,… but above all a positive dynamic.
Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years
“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the entire “Medical” team of the “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb ,, …) which allow this project to ‘to exist,
– the entire IT team: Mathieu Bouquet at the head, Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (webmaster)
– the entire “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie,Alison …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Societe de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and, Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 84 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me ( guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work 🙂
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