We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis units”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the elementary COURTESY of quoting us.
——————————————————————–
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai and specialist in international public health and “health innovations”, comments on a daily basis the evolution of the epidemic for more than 2 months, and gives us a preview of the elements of understanding on its “country analysis” and the foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid in China for 3 months).
Today, we are glad to present a preview of a platform aiming to fight the current epidemic and to prepare the deconfinement. Some components of this platform are under development, others (including our daily analysis) already exist or are evolving.The daily analysis follows this presentation.
A. This platform follow the 4 levels of digital evolution
1. Level 1.0: informational
We provide information that is quantitatively unprecedented (every day since January 28 and the announcement of containment measures in Shanghai) and qualitatively impeccable and educational (visuals, memos, …).
The CovidMinute iconography,this is 6 to 8 graphics, maps, diagrams supplied at least daily.
Chart: national hospitalization / intensive care / death indicators
2. Level 2.0: exchange with professionals and general public
Exchange forum with moderator for the teleconsultation.
Implementation of intra-professional communication tools.
3. Level 3.0: the mobile application for real-time monitoring of the epidemic
This application is under development. Please find in Part B of this newsletter more detailed information about it.
4. Level 4.0: a smart tool, partner of targeted intelligent containment and of a step-by-step deconfinement
We are bringing medical and public health expertise as well as a technological advantage (we have been building our databases since January 28) to the TrackVir project (see part B for detailed information on this application), which is currently in preparation phase. A beta version will be released as soon as possible.
B. Connection between two pioneering and innovative players: CovidMinute and TrackVir present a global platform
1. CovidMinute.com team: always “one step ahead”, 4 tangible examples
1.1. Tools to think and anticipate the evolution of the epidemic: CovidScore © and CovExit ©
Published for the first time more than 15 days ago and taken up by many followers and decision-makers (who do not always quote their source!), CovidScore gives a global vision of the global strategy (preventive and curative) facing the virus, to deal with the initial viral wave.
This is the health equivalent of the Moody’s agency in financial sphere and it is available nationally and regionally.
Our reading committee, composed of international professionals, helps us assess the evolution of the epidemic in time and space, using objective quantitative data.
National CovidScore © :
Regional CovidScore © (ARS level) : covers the operational aspect which shall surely be taken up by decision makers.
Country CovExit © : tool launched 2 days ago in preview and which will proactively prepare the containment exit
It allows us to assess the positioning of France and see how we can make suggestions on Asian experiences to adapt or even improve in our country.
1.2. The “Geopathology” and “Crash test” sections of health systems
Created since February 6, 2020, initially for explanations to the French community in China (more than 5,000 daily readers, before the epidemic spread to the rest of the world).
The content we offer addresses the impact of the virus in its different dimensions (health, economic, geopolitical, …).
1.3. The mnemonic and visual communication tools for prevention for the general public and professionals
This “4M” educational tool is currently spreading in France and abroad, hopefully faster than the virus …
French version :
English version :
1.4. A team that has already proven its worth :
– experienced: we have been monitoring the epidemic day by day since January 28
-multicompetent: doctors, specialists in Public Health, programmer, expert in data analysis, …
-multi-centric: our teams operate mainly in Asia (Shanghai, Singapore, etc.) and in France.
– mainly based on volunteering
2. TrackVir team: “a concrete and expert solution” at the service of public health
Trackvir is a citizen initiative launched by Woodle Up, which mobilizes digital experts and European specialists.
This mobile application is structured around two main components:
1. Infrastructure and technology: TrackVir, combination of 3 existing technological supports:
– the BLUETOOTH function available on all mobile cell phones (Smartphone),
– the GSM network and
– French wifi networks and hotspots, acting as back-up tools for the geolocation of mobiles.
2. A specific data processing algorithm – anonymization and encryption
The algorithm structures and manages a database management system (DBMS) allowing the production of 2 families of deliverables and functionalities useful for the eradication of an epidemic of COVID-19 type: we will come back to these functionalities in detail later .
A triple goal :
1. case management tool at local (“cluster”), regional, national level:
– reduce and control the spread of the virus in real time
– optimize, adapt the organization, and health resources to control the situation
– inform the carriers concerned in real time with personalized information
2. a citizen tool available to the authorities :
Obviously, this tool must be used under the control of the health authorities, with the usual safeguards (anonymization, CNIL law, etc.), and be used essentially on a voluntary basis and guaranteeing the confidentiality of data between other.
–Given the Health aspect and the specificity of this application, only a government agency ARS or SPF type (Santé Publique France), non-profit, can be responsible for the validation of this application and the exploitation of associated data .
3. Prevention tool, while waiting for pharmacological treatments (medicines-vaccines) to arrive on the market.
C. Objective of this union: an “all in one” mobile platform with a beta solution within 3 weeks
1. Legitimate: meeting of teams of experts in their respective fields
-health: CovidMinute
– technology (mobile application, artificial intelligence, …): TrackVir
2. “All in one”
This application is intended to be a “Swiss army knife” type platform, both informational and practical.
3. Responsive: “a handful of bees is better than a bag of flies”
The deliverables generated by this innovation must respond to the urgency and gravity of the situation and particularly at the request of health teams and the government who will thus have at their disposal in real time the decision support tools.
Delays are a source of health and economic risks
4. Ethically flawless
We bring together in our team an ethical taskforce chaired by a recognized personality.
Our teams have been volunteering since January 28 and agree not to have a commercial approach during this period of national suffering.
5. Hexagonal
We believe that France has exceptional innovation capabilities, in its own ecosystem (which is different from Korea or China).
If we can do everything by ourselves, we believe that the mobilization around this “historic” project of human, technological and financial resources, can only accelerate the advent of this solution, in the interest of all.
The obstacles inherent in the public sphere mean that motivated good intentions will provide a faster solution (although we hope, for the benefit of the entire population, that the various levels of decision can overcome these obstacles).
D. “Geopathology”: America in “intensive care” mode, Italy at the start of the plateau, France (D25) follows
Analysis with the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani and Stéphane, companions from the start.
All the information is already present in the media, so I give you 4 summary points
1. France: stabilization of the number of new cases in intensive care and decrease in Italy (but let’s remain cautious)
Our health system absorbs the shock but must remain vigilant.
Comparison France-Italy: Italy still in the plateau phase, a beginning of stabilization for France?
Comparison France-Italy: evolution of the number of active cases in intensive care
At regional level
At the national level, there is an improvement in the difference between entry and exit in intensive care, but at the regional level, Ile de France is still facing an increase in entries in intensive care.
New cases (with the caution about screenings)
2.Worldwide prevalence : 80% of currently active cases identified are in the Occident
As there are large measurement biases (e.g. Africa), this information is indicative of trends (same level of measurement over time for a given area).
4 billion people are currently confined in the world.
Geographic vision (source: John Hopkins University)
Prevalence (active cases) : 1,090,000 cases confirmed in observation
-Top Pays :
USA 389k
Italy 95k
Spain 85k
France 80k
Germany 64k (-2k)
UK 54k
Iran 31k (-1k)
Brazil, Canada, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland : 12 à 18k
Evolution of the number of active cases by country
3. Global incidence: 87,000 new cases diagnosed
Chronological evolution
By continent: 76% of new cases in the Occident, almost equally between North America and Europe
Par pays :
USA 26k (-2k)
Spain 6k (+1k)
UK 5k (+1k)
Germany 5k (+1k)
France 4k (-0.7k)
Italy 4k (+1k)
Turkey 4k (+1k)
Iran 2k (-0k)
Peru, Brazil, Canada, India, Russia, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden : 1 à 2k
4. Extremely questionable figures
The case definition is made with geometry too variable from one country to another, with measurement biases and therefore a major under-declaration :
– many forms with few or no symptom: in some countries, especially in the Occident (and particularly in France), these cases will not be counted, whereas they are in other countries, notably Asian countries.
– under test equipment: Africa, among others, has only a few positive cases, but probably mainly due to a lack of tests
– Predictive models are therefore to be taken with caution, as they are based on estimates that only reflect reality very partially.Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
Powered byMedicilline
