We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
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Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai specialist & consultant in international public health, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than 3 months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on his “analysis countries & regions ”and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”. Our new site is launched! Come and discover many iconographic resources and the different sections from our analyzes for 87 days (“Geopathology”, “Scratch Test”, “Coro-Bourse”,…)
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A. The Moroccan exception: a great success which can be explained by 3 concomitant elements:
Morocco was particularly exposed to the virus: near Spain and with tourists from all over the world.
Its population represents half of France (35M), and this allows certain time / space comparisons, in order to draw inspiration from what is effective in others.
1. Proactivity & anticipation more than reactivity and half measure
2. Mind in wartime (action> discussions & procedures in peacetime)
Action takes precedence over the discussions and commissions to be convened (soft consensus):
> At the sanitary level: mandatory mask, C (+) hospital with 700 beds built in 15 days in Casablanca, isolation of C (+) in dedicated hotels, application for tracing, reorientation of industrial sectors for sanitary independence (masks, respirators, …)
> At the socio-economic level, very rapid creation of a fund of $ 1 billion
3. “360 °” and simultaneous approach:
3.1 On the medical and health level: score of 29/30 on our “CovidScore” table (within 48 hours in digital form)
3.2 Sur le plan économique et social : venir en aide aux plus démunis, soutenir les salariés
3.2.1 At the individual level:
- possibility for households to request from the bank the postponement of credit, real estate or consumer maturities
- informal sector workers (41% of the working population) identified by an SMS system: payment of 75 to 112 euros depending on the size of the households,
- 810,000 formal sector employees: payment of 180 euros / month (75% of the minimum wage) for 3 months.
3.2.2 At the enterprise level: the State finances
– payroll taxes for April, May and June, if they maintain at least 80% of employment,
– social security contributions may be paid deferred for those who retain at least 20% of their workforce; a free moratorium was decided on credits and leasing as well as an operating line of credit
– the state guarantee, to ensure the working capital of companies and thus allow them to pay salaries.
4. Indicative results knowing the limits of this type of comparison (age of the population, density, …), are to be adapted to each culture & environment:
3 figures that speak:
- 140 deaths to date for a population half as small as France but much younger
- 14% occupancy of resuscitation beds
- New Covid (+) hospital with 700 beds in Casablanca (mattress in the event of an epidemic outbreak)
B. Europe and France D39: the dynamics of deconfinement are taking shape
1. A Europe with an East-West gradient observed in terms of number of diagnosed cases and mortality
Source : John Hopkins University
2.A Europe of deconfinement at 3 speeds depending on the epidemiological situation (Austria, Czech Republic, Portugal, …) or their health policy (Sweden):
Evolution of the epidemic in Europe – countries in decline (green light), in plateau phase (orange light) and those that have not reached the peak (red light)
3. France : 3 messages
3.1 Resuscitation: continuous + slow decrease + follows Italy 10 days apart:
Evolution of the occupation in intensive care and death France Italy from the date of the 100th case in intensive care
3.2 Hospitalizations: trend decrease for 8 days but still more than 1500 new / day on the 31st day of confinement
France : New hospitalizations and discharges, daily evolution of the scissor effect
3.3 Territorial heterogeneity:
Source : C’est dans l’air
C. World: 180,000 deaths
With the contribution of Marie and Stéphane, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries.
1. Prevalence: 1.7 million active cases confirmed under observation
1.1 World: Space vision
Source : John Hopkins University & C’est dans l’air
1.2 Continent : 80% Westerners, 8% in the Middle East, 5% in Russia
1.3 Country: “Top 10” United States and United Kingdom in epidemic phase, Western Europe in stabilization phase
Evolution journalière du nombre de cas actifs par pays
United States: 713k (yesterday 689k)
United Kingdom: 115k (yesterday 111k)
Italy: 108k (yesterday 108k)
Spain: 101k (yesterday 100k)
France: 98k (yesterday 98k)
Turkey: 80k (yesterday 78k)
Russia: 53k (yesterday 43k)
Germany: 45k (yesterday 48k)
Netherlands: 31k (yesterday 30k)
Belgium: 26k (yesterday 26k)
2. Impact: possible slowdown… but watch out for 3 new “emerging” households (Brazil, Russia, India)
Note that the number of cases diagnosed is an indicator to be taken with caution (depending on the number of tests: ex Africa).
2.1 Number: 74,000 new cases detected yesterday
2.2 Time vision
Incidence (new cases) and new deaths worldwide
2.3 Vision Space
2.3.1 Continent – from 3 to 4 centers: United States, Europe, Middle East, and Russia
2.3.2 Top 10 Countries: America still in epidemic phase
Top 7 of the day of the countries in new cases, this day and evolution
By country
United States: 26k (24k yesterday)
Russia: 5k (6k yesterday)
United Kingdom: 4k (4k yesterday)
Spain: 4k (4k yesterday)
Turkey: 3k (5k yesterday)
Italy: 3k (3k yesterday)
Brazil: 3k (2k yesterday)
France: 2k (2k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Peru, Canada, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Portugal: 1 to 2k
3. Special Americas: USA, 45,000 deaths on day 40
3.1 “Minute” geographic vision: East-West gradient
Source : Politico
3.2 Towards a plateau?
3.3 Deconfinement for states / countries that practice it is not yet topical
Evolution de l’épidémie en Amérique
Note that “Belle Province” is the most affected state in Canada (following 3 weeks of pre-confinement vacation).
D. TOMORROW ?
– Reinforcement of our site (and no longer a blog !!) with many iconographic resources, different headings from our analyzes for 87 days (“Geopathology”, “Scratch Test”, “Coro-Bourse”, …).
– By the end of the week probably: section “Deconfinement:“ If I were President ”…
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Manual-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but mainly to protect the more fragile.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight.
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
- the entire “Medical” team of the “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb ,, …) which allow this project to exist,
- the entire IT team: Mathieu Bouquet at the head, Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (webmaster)
- the entire “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & Societe de Consulting B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and, Gilles Langourieux) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 68 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you …. because it is not the work that is missing …!
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