Live from Shanghai since January 28 th.
“Is the curve of the C + resuscitation beds going to bend?” “
Above all, maintain a Winning Morale, essential to the “Mental Health” of the Country (100% of the 1082 C + sailors of Charles de Gaulle are unharmed – & only one has spent 10 days in intensive care! – and well over 98% of C + survival in the general population…).
🚀 6 ` Minutes Flash : Objective: Contain the tide
🇫🇷 France : dashboard
We are in an epidemic phase, and we consider this to be a “new epidemic”, which cannot be compared to the previous one, because the ecosystem has completely evolved in terms of the physical environment and preventive measures ( following new knowledge). Taking into account the probable correlation with the season (see absence of “summer outbreak” in Europe), we call it: Covid 19 – Season 2, and reset the counters to zero.
-This is the same way we differentiate winter flu epidemics from year to year. Once again the Covidminute team is pioneering (“our DNA”) in this matter, and without a doubt, from here one week, the various organizations (Ministries, Journalists, Decision-makers,…), will align themselves with our vision.
🇫🇷 France : local gestion
The virus circulates diffusely
Source : Santé Publique France
💢SSF (“French Health System”) -at national level: a tide (linear) and not a tsunami (exponential)
The 3 indisputable types of indicators (C + hospitalizations, C + resuscitation, C + deaths) are on the linear rise (see figure). The positive rate of tests (less questionable than simple C + tests) has increased from 4.5% to 9.8% in one month (doubling).
💢💢REANIMATION BEDS – at national level: the KEY to understanding
For some, the protection of vulnerable people, and the current preventive measures (“3M 1T”) will be sufficient: let’s be positive, very many lives have already been saved, thanks to this type of measures.
At the departmental level, in terms of load / capacity, some resuscitations are already saturated (Guadeloupe 135%), and some could be in turbulence (Martinique 89% – Seine Saint Denis 65% – Bouche du Rhone 64% – Paris 57% …).
Note, already in Paris, postponement of 20% of non-urgent surgical activity (cataracts, hernias, etc.) and many professionals won’t be able to go on holidays.
⚠️ To go further
1/ Chronological Vision (Time)
2 & 3/ Regional Barometer & DOM TOM
🇪🇺 Europe : “Barometer per country”
A North South gradient observed
Europe in terms of a single area (550M) & relatively homogeneous (demography, economy, social …), has evolved into an epidemic phase (+/- 600 deaths / day), i.e. more than the USA or Brazil (cf. next card)
⚠️ To go further
World : “World pandemy”
Time : A 5 kinetic viral phase
Have the few key figures in mind: 5k deaths / day and +/- 300k new officially declared C + / day (beware of everything that is “test dependent” in terms of measurement and interpretation).
Space: India takes over from the Americas
⚠️To go further:
6/ Kinetic deaths for major epidemic countries
Geopathology : « viral RNA expresses The Cultural DNA of Societies »
What`s up in 🇨🇳? : China wants to remain “CovidFree” (=> only rare imported cases), before the mass vaccination of the population, probably next January.
Thus, for a lesser outbreak of fire (6 cases, probably from an imported hospital case, in the port city of Qingdao in Shandong province), a “Canadair” is called: massive screening campaign for this metropolis + / – the size of the IDF (12M) => +/- 9 million individuals tested in 5 days … another dimension
———To come up——-
Seroprevalence studies depending on the location
Italian study with% of asymptomatic cases according to age
Geopathology (“Patho-Geopolitic”): barrier actions depending on the country, vaccine update, etc.
“Live with” while protecting the most vulnerable with a “citizen” attitude
- 3M for the general population (70%)
- 4M for populations at risk and the most exposed (30%)
- 4M for places at risk of exposure (case by case and common sense: visiting a church alone is not at risk, conversely, risk if a crowded place and “proximity” rituals).
See you tomorrow
Dr Guillaume Zagury
Specialist in International Public Health (DES)
HEC
Practitioner
Consultant in Medical Innovations (France, Israel, China)
In China for 20 years
« All success is collective and so thank you to our teams (Dr. Bachir Athmani, Carole Gabay, Richard Coffre,…), as well as to our patrons, and of course to the Paul Benetot Foundation/Matmut Group.
