Dr G. Zagury : “Covid Flash” of 28/09/2020

The news catches up with us, and I was asked, by readers in France and China, to try to “give meaning” to the “Covid” information.

Equation to dimensions: have in mind the “maximum figures” observed during the April peak:

• Hospitalizations (+4281)  / Versus +54 today (but reporting WE)
• Intensive care (+771) / Versus +7 today (but reporting WE)
• Death (+ 605 at the Hospital) / Versus +27 today (but reporting WE)

The virus circulates in France and in the DOM, and an epidemic phase is observed according to the regions (IDF, North, …)

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Source : Santé Publique France

To understand the situation in France it is necessary to know how to reason on the issue – the reaniation beds, in terms of load/capacity (while knowing the cinetic decalee of 5 days, compared to symptomatic Cs):

As we are the WE, the figures will have to be confirmed this Monday and Tuesday, with a likely “catch-up”.

What worries authorities at the moment is the increasing “positivite test” indicator (grosso modo on 100 practical tests – 7.4% return positive, compared to 6.1% 1 week ago). It is a specialist debate (inner slingshot to the medical body … but not yet manifestations of “yellow masks”), like all indicators “dependent test” (many biases: measurement and interpretation), and in the immediate future let’s go back to the “fundamentals”: the evolution of H-and-re-eu beds.

There is still “margin” on our Health System (see figure), but it all depends on the evolution, and the effectiveness of the preventive measures to “smooth out as much” the curve (act 2 – red), and thus be able to “live with” (waiting for a vaccine?).

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 At the local level: resuscitation in Guadeloupe and Reunion is almost full (95%), and in the PACA, 40% of the resuscitation beds are occupied by C patients (figures that have been stable for 4 days).

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⚠️ To go further

1/ Chronological Vision (Time)

2 & 3/ Regional Barometer & DOM TOM

4/ Intensive Care Barometer

A North South gradient observed

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7 countries are currently “sensitive” in Europe: Spain and France in the south and some countries in the East (Romania, Czech Republic, Ukraine, etc.)

⚠️ To go further

5/ “Space-Time” Table

A 5 kinetic viral phase

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Have the few key figures in mind: 5k deces/jr and 300k new C/day officially declared (attention to everything that is “dependent test” in terms of measurement and interpretation).

Space: India takes over from the Americas …

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At the continental level, distribution of type 4 x ¼ on the death marker (about 1.8 k / day): North America (USA for more than 60%) – South America (Brazil for about 50%) – Asia (India for more than 60%) – Rest of the World (0.5k in Europe, 0.2 in Africa, etc.).

⚠️To go further:

6/ Kinetic deaths for major epidemic countries

The symbolic figure of the 1 Million deces reached

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💢 In a way to be constructive and synthetic:

TheWest is the main health victim in terms of mortality: 75% of the victims (for more than 75%: 75 years).

Roughly 1 million official victims in 8 months, the equivalent of the annual AIDS figures. But know how to reason in terms of PYLL (Potential Years of Lost Life), because these are two totally opposite pathologies (Western City Age / Young African for more than 70% of cases…).

Note that Africa, with 17% of the world’s population, accounts for only 4% of deaths (presumably attributable in particular to: young age, “temperature” effect ,….)

Global Technology Leadership: The Little Red Book Has Rosit?

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  If the first vaccine will not be the best (recall a S3, % efficacy, injection pathway, …), its advertising effect will undoubtedly have a considerable impact, in terms of “soft power” and technological power.

In our opinion, the inactive Chinese vaccine developed by SINOVAC veers in the head with the announcement last Thursday of the first results (not yet officially published), following the trials in Brazil, started on July 21 (M2): efficacy evalue at 98%, with no side effects observed (generally minor) in more than 95% of cases.

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In the age of the “information highways”, relayed by social networks, our goal is thus to “return to the fundamentals”: to bring out daily 5-6 “strong signals”, factual rather than emotional, in the “noise” surrounding, and thus reassure the greatest number, in the face of a pandemic always evolutionary.

« All success is collective and so thank you to our teams (Dr. Bachir Athmani, Carole Gabay, Richard Coffre,…), as well as to our patrons, and of course to the Paul Benetot Foundation/Matmut Group.

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–          To follow…

Protect the most vulnerable with a “citizen” attitude

• 3M for the general population (70%)

• 4M for at-risk and most at-risk populations (30%)

See you tomorrow

Dr Guillaume Zagury
International Public Health Specialist
HEC
In China for 20 years

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