We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries… ) read this “served for breakfast” analysis, and we look forward to it. We simply ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to be courteous in quoting us..
Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on aday-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and gives a preview of the elements of understanding on its “country and regions analysis” and predictable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”everysuccess is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Fondation Paul Bennetot (Foundation of the Matmut under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various companions (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca… )
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available to you on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France
After 56 days of confinement and at J7 of deconfinment,the number of new hospitalized cases is still falling, to less than 200 (350 yesterday). Effect “scissor” maintained for 7 days.
I.2 Vision time: we followItaly with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 France Anticipating a potential second wave: resuscitation beds available
I.4 Europe: no second wave observed in countries ahead of us
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases): nearly 50 active “Wuhan” and 2 outbreaks to monitor Latin America (young population) and Russia (older population)
I.6 World: Dynamic Homes
II. 360-degree analysis
Ⅱ. A week on which the return to freedom will depend: understanding the 3 points to watch
A.1 Understanding Viral Spread: A Two Game
- A transmitter: the virus with its ecosystem (temperature, humidity, host animal…) and its epidemiological data (R0, incubation time…).
- A receiver: the population with its demographic characteristics (age), medical (comorbidity … ) and behavioral (collective confinement, and individual confinement:”3M”… )
A.2 Understanding why May 18 is important
- The generally accepted average incubation time is 5-7 days (maximum 14 days hence the time of fourteen).
- As the deconfinement began on 11 May, the population will once again come out and promote mainly respiratory and manual transmissions.
A.3 Epidemiological monitoring: is the virus circulating and how fast?
- Hospitalizations: trend, doubling time…
- Resuscitation beds: ability to absorb 5% of positive cases requiring stay in ICU (Intensive CareUnit)
A.4 Cluster Monitoring: “3T”
- Tracing-Test-Transfer (isolation)
- In particular, the ability to identify and manage contacts includingCs, with non-electronic tools..
A.5 Monitoring of the public’s adherence to “barrier gestures”:
- The “3M” barrier measures (Mask-Main-Meter) for all-comers,and the “4M”(add:”Minute”), for the 20 million people at risk (age, comorbidity, carer).).
- What we have been saying about our Asian experience since February: “Themask is to Covid what condoms are to AIDS””
- Tomorrow, the results of the study that has just been released and which closes the debate of expert against expert (WHO): the mask is a key(comparable population: 90 times less deaths in Hong Kong than in France!).
A.6 If the 3 conditions are converging
Then finally the economy can start again, and this is what is essential, especially for sectors like tourism (summer: more than 60% of turnover in Corsica), or customers will return only if guarantees that the country is not at risk!
II.B FRANCE: A favorable epidemiological dynamic, with a decline in the 3 most affected regions, but still remain vigilant.
II.C EUROPE OF DECONFINEMENT: No second wave in our neighbours yet
II.D MONDE: 5 million reported historical cases and 2.5 million active cases
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
II.D.1 Prevalence: 2,627,000 active cases confirmed for observation and 5 M of historical cases (less than 1 in 1000 people!)
1.1 Timeline evolution:
Epidemic growth: 5 million historical cases
Space vision:
World: cf minute analysis card
- By continent: America 55% of reported active cases – EU 22% – Russia 10% – Middle East
Country top 10
United States 1.09 M (yesterday 1.08 M)
Russia 212k (yesterday 206k)
United Kingdom 200k? (Yesterday 199k?)
Brazil 131k (yesterday 132k)
France 90k (yesterday 91k)
Italy 68k (yesterday 70k)
Peru 61k (yesterday 58k)
India 56k (yesterday 54k)
Spain 54k (yesterday 57k)
Netherlands 37k? (Yesterday 38k?)
Turkey 35k (yesterday 36k)
II.D.2 Impact: 82,000 new cases detected yesterday
Timeline: Stabilization of new case numbers reported (attention all these indicators are test-dependent)
By continent: America: 50% equal distribution.
By country: USA and BRi in epidemic phase –
United States 20k (21k yesterday)
Russia 10k (9k yesterday)
Brazil 8k (15k yesterday)
India 5k (5k yesterday)
Peru 4k (4k yesterday)
United Kingdom 4k (4k yesterday)
Saudi Arabia 3k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Indonesia, Singapore, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Ukraine, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Colombia,Ecuador,Chile, Egypt: 1 to 2k
II.D.3 All data (tables, curves… ) by country and of different types (tests, hospitalizations, resuscitation, death):
Available under “resources” on the site: www.covidminute.com
.. For those who want to look for “signals in the noise of data”.
… be careful, the fact that all data “test dependent” are to be handled with a lot of reserve (under declaration for lack of test as in Africa, see some over-declarationon deaths for non-medical reasons …).
III TOMORROW:
- The truth about wearing the mask: the study that has just come out and which shows that it is THE CLE MESURE (Hong Kong: 10% of the French population with the same distribution of ages, but withdensities 10 times greater than in our country – 1000 cases and 4 deaths!)
- “Brazil” special: these days
- “Tourism” special: these days
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- The entire “Medical” team of “GCMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb…) that make this project a muste,
- The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- The whole “Communication” team(Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison… ): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company BSquare, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux,) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner to finance computer development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team, even if partly inShanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!
