We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries, …) read this analysis “served at breakfast”, and we are delighted. We just ask you, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us.
Doctor Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, specialist in international public health and in health innovations, comments for the Community day by day the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and delivers in preview the elements of understanding on its “country & region analysis” and foreseeable consequences (experiences of SARS in 2003 and of Covid-19 in China).
A whole remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which wants to be factual and objective (moreover, do not hesitate to join us: mail below): “all success is collective”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our patrons with a civic vision: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Fondation de l’Avenir), B Square, Tag Advisory , Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, …)
Our illustrations, created almost 100 days ago, will soon be available on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 ° MINUTE”: 2 maps and 4 graphs (=> 80% of useful information)
1. France – a favorable dynamic: scissors effect in progress (hospitalizations & resuscitation):
… .But to put things into perspective (knowing how to think in a month).
2. Time vision: we are following Italy 10 days later
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France / Italy
3. France – Provisional: resuscitation beds available (the stake from May 16)
Post-deconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (D7 with an expected increase around May 16), and the influx of patients C (-)
4. 3-speed Europe: peak – plateau – epidemic phase
- Community countries in epidemic control phase
- The 3 Latin countries soon to be in epidemic control phase (plateau is slowly going down):
5. Globally: half of the 2 million active cases in the Americas and a third in Europe: monitor Russia and Brazil
A.Good morning Asia: a little pebble from the end of the world “Coved Free” for a month, and who protects himself: New Caledonia
I thank Dr Marc Genton, longtime friend and member of our medical network, for sharing this information with us.
A.1 Overall assessment on D42 (remarkable work by the local government health team): an indestructible village despite 18 initial cases
- March 18: first 2 cases
- March 23: containment ordered
- No indigenous cases developed
- In total: 18 cases, all hospitalized for surveillance, 0 deaths
- Since March 30: all tests conducted are negative
- April 18 progressive deconfinement
A.2 18 diagnosed cases: only imported cases
- 13 were imported cases: travelers returning from mainland France (9), Brazil (1), Argentina (1), Dubai (1) and Sydney (1).
- 5 were related to another case (close contact).
- No indigenous case has been identified in the territory to date.
A.3 Clinical description and medical management
Epidemiology :
– Sex ratio 1.6 (men 61% of cases) versus 1.03 internationally
– age: the average age is 48 years on the territory, against 51 at the international level
Supported :
.18 people (100%) were hospitalized in internal medicine (Covid-19 unit).
..A person has been transferred to the intensive care unit.
..17 people went out and considered cured (2 negative tests 48 hours apart and without symptoms from D7).
A.4 Rapid tracking and follow-up of identified contact cases (3 risk levels):
High risk: 7% initially tested positive. During the investigations, 69 high-risk contact cases were identified around the 18 confirmed cases. 11 people showed symptoms (16%) and 5 people tested positive among these contacts (7.2%). The latter were placed in strict confinement, either at the hospital or at the hotel.
Concerning the 112 moderate risk contact cases: 21 (18.8%) presented symptoms (cough, fatigue …). The latter were tested at Covid-19 and were negative, 36 other people have been tested and are also negative. In all, 57 people out of the 112 contact cases were tested and were negative (50.9%).
Among the 240 low-risk contact cases, 10 people showed symptoms (4.2%), were tested with Covid-19 and found to be negative.
A.5 Today: the territory under high protection
All entrants must stay 3 weeks in isolation, 2 weeks at the hotel under surveillance and a week at home.
A.6 Tomorrow “Focus Singapore”: the City State at 2 speeds (without state of mind for migrant workers)
B. France: scissor effect still in progress but still +/- 3000 new cases / day (after more than 40 days of confinement)
The deconfinement will be based on the loco-regional epidemiology: East / West and North-South gradient
C. Europe with 2 gradients and 3 speeds
C.1 An East / West gradient
C.2 3-speed Europe: see 2 graphs of the minute version.
D. WORLD: 4 billion confined, 3 million historical cases declared, 2 million active cases (and soon 200 k deaths)
With the contribution of Dr Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Alison, companions from the start, whom I thank again for their unfailing support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths, etc.) which are extremely questionable as they vary from one country to another (example: availability of tests), with measurement bias and therefore major under-reporting in certain countries. .
D.1 Prevalence: stabilization of cases to 2 million active cases declared
Chronological evolution: 2 million active cases declared and 3 million historical cases
Epidemic growth: 3 million historical cases
Space vision: 4 active hubs: Americas, Europe, Middle East, Russia.
Per continent: Americas, 50% of active cases declared
Top 10 countries: United Kingdom 1st European household
Top 10 countries
United States 850k (yesterday 831k)
United Kingdom 139k (yesterday 139k)
Italy 105k (yesterday 105k)
France 94k (yesterday 95k)
Russia 88k (yesterday 84k)
Spain 80k (yesterday 84k)
Turkey 70k (yesterday 73k)
Brazil 39k (yesterday 34k)
Germany 34k (yesterday 36k)
Netherlands 34k (yesterday 34k)
D.2 Incidence: 71,000 new cases detected yesterday
Chronological view: Stabilization of the numbers of new cases reported at 70k / day
Per continent: Brazil and Russia are in the epidemic growth phase and are joining the United States.
Per country: USA & BRic in epidemic phase
Top 10 countries: new homes: Russia, Brazil …
United States 21k (20k yesterday)
Russia 6k (6k yesterday)
Brazil 5k (5k yesterday)
Spain 5k (3k yesterday)
United Kingdom 4k (4k yesterday)
Turkey 3k (2k yesterday)
Peru 3k (2k yesterday)
France 1k (3k yesterday)
India, Singapore, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Ecuador, Chile: 1 to 2k
D.3 The result indicator, faced with a virus carrying out a “Crash-Test of Health Systems” … and therefore of companies and countries:
D.3.1 In more detail:
The indicator reflecting the system strategy (Mortality / million inhabitants): a priori weak overall success (160 currently) and will be at least at the same level as Western Europe in the end (Italy 453 and France 352 )
Raw figures: remember President Trump’s equalization: if we present less than 200,000 victims, it will be a success (i.e. Italian figures reported to the American population 6 times higher: 6 x 30k deaths as projection)
The best indicator of the success of a health system is the number of deaths per million inhabitants: the US with a current figure of 179 in the midst of an epidemic is likely to succeed in countries with low strategic efficiency.
D.3.2 Next Step: has the peak been reached? 2 encouraging elements
- Decrease in new daily cases: still 25k new cases per day but far from the 38k peak 6 days ago (see table 3.2)
- Decrease in daily mortality observed:
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masks-Meter) to protect yourself… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Trust and solidarity for this collective fight
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “All success is collective”, thanks to:
the whole “Medical” team of the “GCRMN” type (Global Covid Medical Network): Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Marc Abecassis, Dr Marc Genton, Dr Mohamed Fadel, Dr Emily Kara, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb, ,,. ..) that allow this project to exist,
the entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
the entire “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison, …): without whom this project would not have been possible.
all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout & TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, …) who work for “Citizen Actions”
We also thank the Paul Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or a partner to finance IT development (all the others have been volunteers for 88 days!), Don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume 888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team even if partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because there is no shortage of work …!
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