This slide is explicit for a global vision, but watch out for the dependent test indicators:
-USA – more cases declared (cf. tests …), but the number of daily deaths remains nonetheless falling and resuscitation is at a high, but stable level… to be continued…
– BRIc: Brazil: in epidemic phase, Russia: stable, India (young population): to watch
– Israel: potential second wave a priori under control.
1. FRANCE: status quo – vigilance / potential outbreaks and Guyana
The dynamics of green indicators, but knowing how to quickly neutralize any potential focus
2. EUROPE: no second wave but outbreaks
Reconfinement located in Germany (600 K people), Lisbon (17 municipalities), Strike migrant camps in the Aegean… (cf.: www.covidminute then CovidFlow)
3. WORLD: The Americas and the Indian subcontinent to follow in particular
3.1 Prevalence:
3.2 Geographic approach:
2 epicenters: the Americas and monitoring India
3.3 Incidence:
we have changed the order of magnitude (cf. availability of tests!) In the new officially declared cases: 10 million historical cases and 0.5M of deaths (5% of the cases declared)
3.3.1 Temporal evolution:
1 million new ones in 1 week (cf. tests…)
3.3.2 – Top 5 countries:
40k new cases (fortunately rather young) in the USA and Brazil, requiring partial reconfiguration
In the USA, contagion is increasing in 30 of the 50 states, especially in the largest in the South and West: California, Texas, Florida. Florida is particularly to control, because very many elderly people have taken up residence there (=> vigilance and protection in all homes for the elderly).
This obliges certain States to reconfigure to recontroll the epidemic, because for “political and economic” reasons (cf. certain populations do not have social cover as in Europe…) They had perhaps deconfinate too early.
– Relevant indicators in Public Health, are above all the rates of occupancy of resuscitation beds and deaths (less dependent on the availability of tests):
NEW CASES (WITH LIMITS KNOWN TO THIS INDICATORS
4. MORTALITY:
at M6 doubling of deaths (0.5M) in the last 2 months
4.1 USA:
More cases (see tests widely available), but fewer daily deaths (see iconography)
4.2 Cumulative deaths:
0.5M deaths (including 85% in the West: 1 EU 2 USA 3 Brazil)
5. RESULTS INDICATOR:
be careful to handle with care, and by professionals under penalty of arriving at simplistic shortcuts (measurement bias, confusion…)….
6. GO OFFSHORE THIS SUMMER?
On 16/6, Europe established a list of countries with a number of new daily cases which must be below the EU average = 16 cases / million inhabitants.
The proposed list also contains fourteen countries:
Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay to which China is added, a priori, subject to reciprocity … Are also admitted travelers from Andorra, Monaco, the Vatican and San Marino.
I thank Dr Bachir Athmani, Carole Gabay and Alison Ray for their inputs.
All the necessary data are available on: www.covidminute.com, as well as the entire iconographic database and the Covidflow tool (all information by country or state).
Next appointment
Thursday: Europe & Americas point
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you
