Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”anysuccess is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.A France – Deconfinement . Day 3: Let’s remain vigilant as the number of new “reported” C + cases remains around 500/jr.
I.B Vision time:
We follow Italy with 10 days lag (balance will probably be similar to that of our neighbors)
I.C France – Post-deconfinement forecast:
Resuscitation beds available – the issue from 16 May: the curative system will have a hard time with a “second wave” C(+), especially as the C(-) gradually return
The date of 16 May, where vigilance should be increased, is due to deconfine (increased viral transmission) to which the average viral incubation period has been added: 5js.
Note that our health system was on the verge of rupture (see transfers) a month ago (7184 patients in resuscitation on April 8, versus 2500 C () currently).
I.D Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, Ehpad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.E Epidemic Mapping (reported active cases):
5 active households (NorthAmerica, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Russia)and nearly 50 “Wuhan” has different epidemic degrees.
I.E Active households: USA and BRI (Brazil, Russia, India) are at 20k new “reported” cases per day
I.G World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals:
3 levels observed: The USA passes into the top group.
I.H Scientific Watch:
Probable biological explanation of epidemiological differences, observed in terms of severity, and mortality between men (XY) and women (XX): the protein “Fox P3” carried by the X chromosome, controls the suppressor arm of the regulatory cells of the immune system, and thus prevents the cytokinicstorm, a major pathophysiological phenomenon in the Covid.
2.8 Million French (4.4% of the population) are reported to have been infected according to the Pasteur Institute (cf positive serology).
II. 360-degree analysis
Ⅱ. A Different players adapt to socio-technological changes (continuous news channel, Social Media) in varying ways:
Yesterday, we saw that the different pandemics were uneven in their treatment. .media. Today, we see the change on the side of the actors:
A.1 Some scientists want to occupy the media space:
Many scientific debates (origin of the virus, seasonality, therapeutic effectiveness, …) are delivered via social networks (Twitter, YouTube,..) or television sets, whereas previously they were subjected to an informed validation process, via scientific publications (“review process”by peers). We have also been on the verge of anew”Dreyfus affair”, with the chloroquine episode (always in a classic expert-versus-expert debate).
Some bosses, are on the front line and sometimes encouraged by their guardianship, to create “advertising effects”, so that innovation also becomes the “capital”, for example.
“Game for two” with journalists, who need content
It should be noted that about 10,000 scientific articles from around the world have been published in international journals dedicated, in the last 4 months.
A.2 Journalists evolve: from “sector” analyst to “scientific” analyst
Race for unique announcement and dramatization: direct with the opening of a hair salon at midnight…
A.3 Public opinion: the viewer becomes an actor
Pathology with its “barrier gestures” (3M) generates in terms of Public Health a support of the general public, and consequently a large-scale education.
Information asymmetry is a must, of course, but over-information creates an impression of knowledge; but we must not forget the adage: “Information without training, leads to misinformation”.
The intrusion of mathematics into medicine (forecasting regression,…) has created zones of conflict between public health actors and computer scientists producing data in all directions: with pseudo cause-and-effect relationship when it comes to confusion bias (having a lighter in your pocket does not want to be at risk of lung cancer, it is the fact of being a smoker that causes the risk).
As we said in a previous post: “there are as many coaches of the French football team as there are French”,and the same is true for the Covid (to be adapted of course, to our Minister of Health).
Note also the anxiety effect of the repetition of macabre figures
A.4 “decision makers”: forced to perform communication prowess, depending on viral evolution.
Navigate on sight, as disturbed by the complexity of refereeing a 3-game: Health-Economic-Freedom
Constantly under media observation (see government communications officer and masks)
A.5 Organizations:
Recovering the Covid, to advance their cause: environment, trade union, nationalism,…
A.6 States:
China, which has proven to be extremely effective in managing the epidemic, has not had the same success in its “mask diplomacy” (28 billion pound masks in 30 countries), which has proved above all commercial and non-humanitarian: its level of “soft power” will suffer for many years. It should also be noted that many Asian democracies have had remarkable results: Taiwan, Korea, …
Russia, very much in the peddle in disinformation policies, has been faithful to itself, amplifying “fake news” aimed at weakening the cohesion of Europe.
Ⅱ. B FRANCE D.Day – 3:
Remain confident: the number of C+ patients in hospital and the number of C+ in resuscitation (2500 today – situation of March 24 – pre-crisis) are in constant decline.
A favorable situation but still at risk, because we do not yet know how the population will spread the virus or not. Let’s remain vigilant, at least until the end of May (monitoring 2nd wave)
Ⅱ. B.2 – A 2-speed France for deconfinement: with a double gradient epidemic East-West and North-South
At the regional level, different situations:
Ⅱ.C EUROPE OF CONFERENCE: AT THIS STAGE NO SECOND WAVE FOR COUNTRIES AHEAD OF US
Ⅱ. C.1 Countries in Sharp Decline
II.C.2 Countries in a shrinking phase
II.C.3 Countries that have not yet reached their peak:
Ⅱ.D WORLD: As many new cases reported in Latin America as in the USA.
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: 2.5M active cases confirmed for observation, almost half of them in the US
Timeline: Epidemic growth since January 1: 4.3 million cumulative historical cases, half of which are currently active
-Geographic vision: cf minute analysis
-By continent: 5 households – North and South America (likely under reporting), Europe, Russia, Middle East,
-Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www.covidminute.com
United States 1.035 M (yesterday 1.046 M)
United Kingdom 196k (yesterday 193k)
Russia 192k (yesterday 187k)
Brazil 99k (yesterday 94k)
France 92k (yesterday 93k)
Italy 78k (yesterday 81k)
Spain 61k (yesterday 62k)
Peru 50k (yesterday 47k)
India 49k (yesterday 47k)
Turkey 37k (yesterday 39k)
Netherlands 37k (yesterday 37k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 80,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
Geographic:
By country: cf minute analysis
USA 19k (20k yesterday)
Russia 10k (11k yesterday)
Brazil 8k (4k yesterday)
Peru 4k (3k yesterday)
India 4k (3k yesterday)
United Kingdom 3k (3k yesterday)
Chile 3k (2k yesterday)
Pakistan 3k (2k yesterday)
Singapore, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Spain, Italy, France, Sweden, Allemagn,SouthAfrica, Canada, Mexico, Colombia: 1 to 2k
II.D SPACE/TIME VISION: MAIN FOCUS
All the tables of our “Data Analysis” expert, Carole Gabay, are updated and on the website: www.covidminute.com,and at your disposal, in the “Resources” section.
III Tomorrow
- Introducing our new “innovation”: these days
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get
protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr Jonathan Taieb …) who allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delightedto welcome you
… because it’s not the work that’s missing…!
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