A / WORLD DYNAMIC: 20 M CASES DECLARED SINCE JANUARY & AROUND 300K / DAY CURRENTLY (DEPENDENT TEST)
A.1 / CHRONOLOGICAL ASPECT:
Increase in declared cases (= Dependent test => nearly 300k / day), but with a declared stable mortality (++) at +/- 5k deaths per day (6.377 yesterday).
• Note the preventive dynamic, because we are testing more and more (as in Italy: the average age of C (+) fell from 60 years 2 months ago, to 40 years at the beginning of August.): 50% of 20M of cases declared to date, were observed 1 month ago (passage from 10M to 20M in 35 days / 8 months of epidemic).
A.2 / GEOGRAPHICAL ASPECT:
• More than 100 “Wuhan” in the World, and let us note that China (“Out of Hubei”) is the space which has been the most spared in the World and for good reason: fierce restrictions at the borders, membership and total respect of barrier gestures, all technological solutions (admittedly potentially liberticidal) used for the benefit of Public Health …
– Note that the “temperature-humidity” hypothesis (the virus would develop better in a cool, humid, poorly ventilated environment, such as slaughterhouses, fishmongers, etc.) is still under debate: cf. upsurge in cases in Morocco or Israel (dependent test effect?)
A.3 / WORLDWIDE INCIDENCE
– 3 Epicenters: As expected, India in the epidemic phase (under declaration ++ & “young” country) with still: Brazil (& Latin America) and USA (50k day)
A.4 / WORLD PREVALENCE: LET’S MONITOR THE INDIAN SUB-CONTAINER
A.5 / AMERICAS FOCUS:
A.6 / GLOBAL IMPACT: DEATH ANALYSIS – AT M8 WE ARE MOVING TOWARDS AN HIV-TYPE ASSESSMENT
(1M deaths / year & patients generally in their prime!): 725K deaths to date
6.1 TOP 5 CONTINENT: THE WEST FOR MORE THAN 83% OF DECLARED DEATHS (600K)
1 North America (USA: 160k) & Central: 225 K
2 Europe: 210 K
3 South America: 160K
6.2 TOP 10 COUNTRIES:
6.2.1 Daily deaths: USA, Brazil and India have 1000 daily deaths
6.2.2 CUMULATIVE DEATHS: THE AMERICAS & INDIA POTENTIALLY
6.3 RESULTS INDICATOR:
THE USA & BRAZIL AT THE TOP OF THE TABLE AT THE HEALTH LEVEL (BE CAREFUL OF SHORTCUTS BECAUSE THE DECISIONS ARE MULTIPARAMETRIC AND WITH MANY COMPLICATED ARBITRATIONS)
B / EUROPE & FRANCE
B.1 / EUROPE: A RELATIVELY POSITIVE SITUATION… BUT WITH VARIABLE GEOMETRY
There are very many indicators (as in economics), which most often come together to identify a trend. As we prefer to do synthetic, this card (thanks to my friend Dieter Schmidt) which allows a “minute approach”, as we appreciate them:
1.1 PREVALENCE ON AUGUST 10: Spain, Luxembourg, Balkans … to be monitored
1.2 CHANGING TREND:
• A multitude of in-depth data and data, provided by our team (Carole Gabay – Expert in Data Analysis -, Laetitia Bernard-Granger – Social media manager, Richard Coffre – Webmaster…)
B.2 / FRANCE: “LIVE WITH”, BUT IN INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY (THE FIRE MAY RESUME)
2.1 NO COMPARISON WITH THE SITUATION IN APRIL, BUT NO NAIVITY:
And this in all regions:
2.2 LET’S BE PRO-ACTIVE BY AVOIDING RISKY SITUATIONS: IT’S BETTER TO BE ONE STEP AHEAD….
– The virus is circulating: more than 700 clusters
– Watch out for certain locations (Paris, Marseille, etc.), and of course Guyana.
– A positive thought for our friends in the Pacific: Tahiti, which has just seen a small rebound, and New Caledonia, still a small Gaulish village “Covid Free” and whose access is of the “Chinese” type (strict quarantine).
C / VACCINE:
The effect of the announcement of Sputnik V (Vaccine) by President Putin shows the major geopolitical stake in terms of “Softpower”, where health replaces nuclear energy, with its multiple implications: economic, technological, etc.
Let us not forget that there are already 6 other “vaccine candidates” officially in phase 3 since July 15, and from international consortia (50% with Chinese participation!), Some of which with cohorts in the trial phase. (Brazil, Middle East…) around 30,000 individuals.
According to the information provided, the “Russian” solution is more of a phase 2 type, with around sixty volunteers having received a first injection. To be continued…
See you next week, for this World panorama.
As always since January 28, the trilogy: 😷 🤚 ↔️
Note that you can:
• download the visuals developed since the beginning of the adventure www.covidminute.com on https://covidminute.com/visuels-memos
• consult all the graphs / analyzes, updated with each article publication https://covidminute.com/les-dossiers-thematiques – France and China documents are updated every day except weekends for France, which has not published Covid data on weekends and public holidays since the end of June.
• browse the CovidFLow tool which continues to be updated daily for more than 200 countries and 50 states of the USA: https://covidminute.com/covid-flow
Have a good week,
Dr Guillaume Zagury
Public Health Specialist
Consultant in Medical Innovations
Note: If you would like to join our team: firstname.lastname@example.org