I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – Hospitalizations – Always 500 new cases a day at D8 from the conference: to follow
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
I.3 France – Capacity to absorb a potential “2nd wave”
I.4 Europe: the countries that have deconfait before us have not suffered a second wave
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases):
Nearly 50 “Wuhan” active, and 2 households to monitor LatinAmerica(young population) and Russia (older population). Note the impact of the epidemic, if the health authorities donot “freeze” the Hubei (and its Wuhan capacity).
I.6 World: Brazil and Latin America in epidemic phase
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
Note (for 100k): Spain 60 Italy 53 United Kingdom 52 France 50 ….Germany 10 ….Taiwan 0.3
Of course,as we originally mentioned, know the limits (selection bias, confusion…), but the dynamics and discrepancies are significatifs / strategies employees..
II.A.Health Vision – Medico- sanitary tools
They are only one part of the three-dimensional equation: Economic (priority) – Liberticide (individual/collective freedom)
With the complicity of my friend Dr. Bachir Athmani, faithful to the first hour.
1. The Covexit tool created more than 6 weeks ago, in line with its predecessor Covidscore
As we learn at HEC:“If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it”.”.
Hence the idea of these two scores:
- The CovidScore
, to assess the preparedness aspect of the epidemic
- Covexit
Don’t hesitate to contact me, guillaumez888@hotmail.com to help create digital tools
2. Understanding Covexit:
– Protection: 1 General population (“3M”) 2 People at risk: age (65) comorbidity, caregivers (“4M”)
-Screening: tests available and follow-up (electronic often in Asia).
– C-follow-up: in Asia most often isolation
3. Best practices: we have established with our Reading Committee, a reference grid with quantification as much as we could do (nb of masks, tests,… )
4. Results: France evolves according to its values and compromises.
It loses points, especially in the aspect: prevention (little FFP2 mask for caregivers,… ), screening (best screening policy, but without the use of electronic tools for example…),and follow-up (a big difference compared to the majority of Asian countries lies in the return home of Cs)
5. The current dynamic being the economic recovery, and given the absence of a second wave observed in the countries defining confinant before us, the current state, can be described as satisfactory (while being vigilant! ).
II.B FRANCE: Indicators are encouraging(see minute analysis)
You will have a detailed view space time, via the numerous tables and graphs of our data analysis expert, Carole Gabay, on our website: www.covidminute.com
II.C Europe
An East-Ouest historical gradient:
- Inconment: 3 types of countries
Ⅱ. D WORLD: South America on the front line
With the contributions of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane, and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1Prevalence: 2.7 million active cases confirmed under observation
Ⅱ. D.1.1 Vision time:
- World: cf “minute analysis”
- Continent: America (54%) – EUR (21%) – Russia (10%)- Middle East
- Top 10 countries
United States 1.11 M (yesterday 1.10 M)
Russia 221k (yesterday 218k)
United Kingdom 200k? (yesterdayhier 199k?)
Brazil 148k (yesterday 137k)
France 90k (yesterday 90k)
Italy 65k (yesterday 687)
India 61k (yesterday 58k)
Peru 60k (yesterday 62k)
Spain 54k (yesterday 54k)
Netherlands 37k? (Yesterdayhier 38k?)
Turkey 34k (yesterday 35k)
By continent
UK and NL maintained at their last known prevalence level.
Ⅱ. D.2 Incidence: 85,000 new cases detected yesterday
By continent: South America in epidemic phase (fortunately, “young” continent)
By country: cf minute analysis.
USA 17k (21k yesterday)
Brazil 11k (13k yesterday)
Russia 9k (9k yesterday)
India 6k (5k yesterday)
Peru 5k (3k yesterday)
Chile 4k (2k yesterday)
Saudi Arabia 3k (3k yesterday)
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Belarus, Turkey, Italy, England, Germany, France, Spain, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Equateur, Egypt: 1 to 2k
II.E A difficult-to-predict veus: “time-space” picture
Find country data, via our application:CovidFlow, downloadable on www.covidminute.com:
You can find multiple data on the site: www.covidminute.com in the resources section.
TOMORROW: coming these days
- Brazil: in epidemic phase
- Masks: the key to success
- Country Sociology: Explaining CovidScore’s notes
- Understanding Japan’s success
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get
protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Bennetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you
