Covid invites itself to Copacabana: special “Brazil”

Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides  a first-of-the-art  understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît  Rossignol,Gilles  Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created  for more than 100 days, will soon be available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (

I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)

I.1 France D.Day – 19 days (cf incubation of the disease – 20  days): Indicators still encouraging

Containment: one of the major measures

Various other hypotheses  envisaged: natural cycle, immunity crosses (/ other coronavirus for example),temperature and humidity, …

2nd wave:  historical example of the influenzae virus (Spanish flu with 2 peaks in 1918 and 1919), seasonality of the “seasonal” flu), imported cases….

I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag

Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy

I.3 Europe:  no second wave in countries with talks before us

Note that some countries (Greece, Finland, Ireland,..) declare certain results only on a weekly basis.

I.4 World

Global pandemic with East-West gradient: nearly 100 Wuhan    around the world at different epidemic phases

Source John Hopkins

Incidence always more than 100 k new cases day

Top 10 countries: Brazil in head (epidemic phase) ahead of the USA (trend decline)

Our volubtary team has returned to work and as a result, we spar the analyses, with a rhythm of 2 weekly analyses.

We maintain  our  “360 reporting”  on a daily basis  and  will react  in  case of any news  

II. 360-degree analysis: Brazil: A country of the future and one that will remain so (General De Gaulle)

Thanks to Dr. Athmani, to  Carole Gabay, and to Philippe de Carvalho for their contribution

II.1 Understanding Brazil:  3 times the  French population, but younger.

  • A country / continent exceptionnel by its  beauty,its  diversity,its  energy,and that we all love (worked there  travaille  nearly  2  years!).  
  • The fundamental axis of fracture is undoubtedly the social level: a low middle class, an important poor class (cf Flavelhas,… ) and a  Community Bresil  still  has  2 speeds (white/black or Indian minorities). minorites
  • In other words: the US as a socio-economic model, more than Europe.

II.2 Crash Test forecast:  

  • For the positive factors, we can a cite: young population(O), health management at the  state level (as in the USA)  and  not  centralise,good quantitative and qualitative rate of reanimation beds in the private sector, and in the rich states of the  Sudeste  (it is estimated to have  36,000 beds of  reanimation-ICU the  Capacity ofBrazil, which  corresponds to 4 times France).
  • For the negative factors,we can cite: large urban centres (Rio, San Paulo, etc.), multitude risks of diffusion (urban slums,  religious meetings,…),  education  has variable reunions geometry,   comorbidite important(obesity  in particular,…), low rate of tests carried out (4.5/ 1000  hbts),low level of  reaniation beds in poor states  (North, Nordeste,…), and on the effect  temperature/humidity  that some  specialists consider   non-negligiblegeable  (“winter” under the tropics currently). We can  also question the pressure of the central government to  privilegiate  theeconomy to health…

II.3 Vision J 67 (S9) after  the  first  sanitary measures (24 March):

  • Time: still in epidemic phase (peak not reached), with the highest number of daily cases  reported in the world (30,000/ 20,000  in the USA)
  • Space: 2 geographicgradients.
  • Cities: cotieres  Rio, San Paulo,  Fortaleza,..
  • The Amazone River:  very  connectable region  in  Miami (Manaus closer  pres to Miami than San Paulo)

II.4 Equation  to dimensions: cases  observed, deaths,  lethality

  • 250k cases currently observed(54% of current cases  reported  in Latin America),  and historically double.
  • Deaths observed  to  date:  jour  :  28 k  deaths  (level of France, for a population 3 times larger)

Dynamic: 1000 deaths  per day currently, which at this rate would double the number of  deaths in a month (S13), and triple in 2 months (i.e. overall balance equivalent  to France has equal population) )

  • An important lethality / other countries: 4%inches under 50 years and 16% on 50-70 years, while the level load/capacity  of  reanimation  is  very  acceptable.

II.5 A S9 what to do next:  

  • if we start from thehypothesis  S12 ,  generally  observed for theevolution of these viroses (3 months: cf China, Western Europe,…), the peak should  be  reached within a week, then gradually redescent.
  • if theS12 hypothesis  does not apply, the balance sheet will be at the level of Western Europe (cf ratio:  deces/million inhabitant: a more than 400, versus 80 actual)


Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.

 Prevalence:  3M (2.96) of  active cases confirmed for observation

By Continent: 55% of cases in America  20% still in Europe, 10% in Russia…

Top 10 Countries:

INCIDENCE: 120,000 new cases detected yesterday

Long time (January 1):

Vision Space: cf top 10 countries in minute analysis

V. COVIDFLOW: The synthese tool

Example: Indonesia

Our “Covidminute” team provides you with the “Covidflow” base (accessible on our platform: www., and thus gives you all the important elements for 151 countries as well as the American states.

Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.

Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle

Dr Guillaume ZAGURY

“All success is collective” thanks to:

o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed  Fadel, Dr.  Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,

o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)

o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.

o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”

o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation

If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development

computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (

Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you