Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol,Gilles Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, will soon be available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France D.Day – 19 days (cf incubation of the disease – 20 days): Indicators still encouraging
Containment: one of the major measures
Various other hypotheses envisaged: natural cycle, immunity crosses (/ other coronavirus for example),temperature and humidity, …
2nd wave: historical example of the influenzae virus (Spanish flu with 2 peaks in 1918 and 1919), seasonality of the “seasonal” flu), imported cases….
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
Comparative chronological evolution of resuscitation cases France/Italy
I.3 Europe: no second wave in countries with talks before us
Note that some countries (Greece, Finland, Ireland,..) declare certain results only on a weekly basis.
Global pandemic with East-West gradient: nearly 100 Wuhan around the world at different epidemic phases
Source John Hopkins
Incidence always more than 100 k new cases day
Top 10 countries: Brazil in head (epidemic phase) ahead of the USA (trend decline)
Our volubtary team has returned to work and as a result, we spar the analyses, with a rhythm of 2 weekly analyses.
We maintain our “360 reporting” on a daily basis and will react in case of any news
II. 360-degree analysis: Brazil: A country of the future and one that will remain so (General De Gaulle)
Thanks to Dr. Athmani, to Carole Gabay, and to Philippe de Carvalho for their contribution
II.1 Understanding Brazil: 3 times the French population, but younger.
- A country / continent exceptionnel by its beauty,its diversity,its energy,and that we all love (worked there travaille nearly 2 years!).
- The fundamental axis of fracture is undoubtedly the social level: a low middle class, an important poor class (cf Flavelhas,… ) and a Community Bresil still has 2 speeds (white/black or Indian minorities). minorites
- In other words: the US as a socio-economic model, more than Europe.
II.2 Crash Test forecast:
- For the positive factors, we can a cite: young population(O), health management at the state level (as in the USA) and not centralise,good quantitative and qualitative rate of reanimation beds in the private sector, and in the rich states of the Sudeste (it is estimated to have 36,000 beds of reanimation-ICU the Capacity ofBrazil, which corresponds to 4 times France).
- For the negative factors,we can cite: large urban centres (Rio, San Paulo, etc.), multitude risks of diffusion (urban slums, religious meetings,…), education has variable reunions geometry, comorbidite important(obesity in particular,…), low rate of tests carried out (4.5/ 1000 hbts),low level of reaniation beds in poor states (North, Nordeste,…), and on the effect temperature/humidity that some specialists consider non-negligiblegeable (“winter” under the tropics currently). We can also question the pressure of the central government to privilegiate theeconomy to health…
II.3 Vision J 67 (S9) after the first sanitary measures (24 March):
- Time: still in epidemic phase (peak not reached), with the highest number of daily cases reported in the world (30,000/ 20,000 in the USA)
- Space: 2 geographicgradients.
- Cities: cotieres Rio, San Paulo, Fortaleza,..
- The Amazone River: very connectable region in Miami (Manaus closer pres to Miami than San Paulo)
II.4 Equation to dimensions: cases observed, deaths, lethality
- 250k cases currently observed(54% of current cases reported in Latin America), and historically double.
- Deaths observed to date: jour : 28 k deaths (level of France, for a population 3 times larger)
Dynamic: 1000 deaths per day currently, which at this rate would double the number of deaths in a month (S13), and triple in 2 months (i.e. overall balance equivalent to France has equal population) )
- An important lethality / other countries: 4%inches under 50 years and 16% on 50-70 years, while the level load/capacity of reanimation is very acceptable.
II.5 A S9 what to do next:
- if we start from thehypothesis S12 , generally observed for theevolution of these viroses (3 months: cf China, Western Europe,…), the peak should be reached within a week, then gradually redescent.
- if theS12 hypothesis does not apply, the balance sheet will be at the level of Western Europe (cf ratio: deces/million inhabitant: a more than 400, versus 80 actual)
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Prevalence: 3M (2.96) of active cases confirmed for observation
By Continent: 55% of cases in America 20% still in Europe, 10% in Russia…
Top 10 Countries:
INCIDENCE: 120,000 new cases detected yesterday
Long time (January 1):
Vision Space: cf top 10 countries in minute analysis
V. COVIDFLOW: The synthese tool
Our “Covidminute” team provides you with the “Covidflow” base (accessible on our platform: www. covidminute.com), and thus gives you all the important elements for 151 countries as well as the American states.
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you