Protect our seniors and our Ephad (75% of mortality mortalité is distributed safely the 75euros) ….
We know that many journalists and decision-makers (“crisis cells”, ministries…) simply ask, when you use our ideas or illustrations, to have the courtesy to quote us..
Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, who specializes in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):“every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr Benoît Rossignol, Gilles Langourieux…)
All our illustrations created for almost 100 days, will soon be available to you on our site and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID “360 MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France – after 48 days of confinement, a favorable but slow dynamic (still close to 1000 new hospitalizations/day)
France: scissor effect in progress (Hospitalizations: more exits C- than entries C+)
I.2 Vision time: we follow Italy with 10 days lag
I.3 France – Forecast: resuscitation beds available (at stake from 16 May)
C beds (up) fall below 3000, for a maximum capacity of about 9000 beds.
Pos-disconfinement projection, based on 3 elements: historical data, incubation time (J7 with an upsurge to be expected around 16 May), and the influx of patients C (-) (around 3200 out of 7183 occupied beds)
I.4 Europe: a 3-speed Europe: past peak (deconfinement) – plateau – epidemic phase.
Note that in France, ephad patients cured or non-hospitalized patients, are not counted in the “healed”, and as a result, the flex (importance of the “green”) of the curve is actually stronger than the “graph” vision.
I.5 Epidemic Mapping (Reported Active Cases): Nearly 1 Active Cases Reported Safe 2 in the US (1Million/2.3M)
I.6 World: Always read from . 88,000 new cases yesterday in Russia and Brazil
I.7 World – outcome indicator – mortality / 100k individuals: 3 levels observed
Comparative international results of “country strategies”
Indicator certainly not perfect (because of the tests, population density, the median age of the country …) but available, to assess the impact of “country” strategies.
Beware, however, of too hasty comparisons (see Finland or Australia with low population density versus Singapore or New York)
1.8 “What’s Up”
Technology: A Chinese vaccine (PiCoVacc) from the Sinovac Biotech Society in Beijing, tests positively in animals(efficacy at 3 weeks). We’ll be back on it soon.
Some projections would suggest that the classic “12-week historical bar” would apply to the Covid dissémination (official release beginning in March) … which would lead us to an end to the epidemic at the end of May. Nevertheless, let us remain néanmoins cautious, with the debates: “Experts versus experts”
II. 360-degree analysis
With the Collaboration of Dr. Bachir Athmani and Carole Gabay
Ⅱ. A Pathology that primarily decomposes seniors, their organizations, and their countries
Ⅱ. A.1 The 75 (+) account for 75% of the victims
Especially as man, and associated polypathologies
A large proportion of the deaths observed have, in fact, only anticipated the end of life of the individuals concerned by a few months (a catalyst-type virus of decompensation rather than a direct cause).
Ⅱ. A.2 Ephad – High-risk structures: 25% of carers C (up), 20% of residents C (up) and 2% of residents who have died:
As the table shows:
-C:72K (residentsrésidents in “retirement homes”) or 18% of residents
– Deaths: 13,000 deaths come from residents in ESMS, or 2% of residents..
– 50% of deaths (38% in Ephad type structure and 12% in Hôpitalhospital.)
Note for prevention during the deconfinement that 25% of health care workers are C
Ⅱ. A.3 At the Country level: The “Old” and “Western” countries are on the front line
An image is worth 1000 words: in terms of mortality, young countries such as Africa, India, Indonesia,Philippine… have so far présent been spared
This map we have selected is extremely telling:
Ⅱ. A.4 Some questions and nuances:
Note this Asian peculiarity: the elderly âgées find themselves “protected” above all by the family environment and much more rarely by a structure (beginningdébut of implantation as in Singapore theWestor only that structural), have avoidedéviter infection rates of around 20% as encounters in structures type Ephad.
- Japan: The country of centenarians is extremely classy in terms of prevention (CovidScore green, more than a month ago) and result (mortalitymortalité/M of inhabitant has 7 versus more than 300 for Europe: 700 deaths per 100 million inhabitants).). This is also due to the “3M3T” measures that are being undertaken very quickly.
- China: Note thatin Shanghai or Beijing, where the age pyramids meet European standards, the number of deaths has been very low (less than 500), because the preventive measures have been drastic. avérés
- Brazil, which I know well, is a country to follow in a particular way, because it is a mixed: demographic, climatic, social and façon cultural. Will he follow in the end an evolution of Western or Oriental ore African type? … .
Ⅱ. B Europe: the countries that have deconfinated
Ⅱ. C France – a J47 containment assessment: Positive dynamics, but a France has 2 speeds for deconfinment
Ⅱ.C.1 Scissor effect but tray still high with 833 admissions daily:
Source Le Monde.
Ⅱ. C.2 Preparation for deconfinement – departmental vision: 27 departments still in red and gradient East-West and North-South
Departmental vision of combinations of the two factors: case density and available resuscitation beds (red: 2 negative indicators – orange 1 indicator – green: 2 positive indicators)
Ⅱ.C.3 Preparation for deconfinement: Regional analysis:
Ⅱ. D WORLD: the 4 million reported cases crossed (240k official victims)
With the contribution of Dr. Bachir Athmani, Stéphane and Carole Gabay, companions of the first hour, whom I thank again for their unwavering support.
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Ⅱ. D.1 Prevalence: The 1 million confirmed active cases crossed in the US
(/ 2.3M cases currently reported) active cases confirmed under observation
By continent
Epidemic growth since January 1: about 4 million historical cumulative cases
Geographical vision: 5 households – North and South America, Europe, Middle East, Russia
By continent:LatinAmerica and Russia in epidemic phase
Top 10 countries: full country table (time /space) on: www. covidminute.com
United States 998k (yesterday 977k)
United Kingdom 176k i (yesterday 171k)
Russia 152k (yesterday 143k)
Italy 90k (yesterday 92k)
France 94k (yesterday 94k)
Brazil 75k (yesterday 68k)
Spain 67k (yesterday 68k)
Turkey 47k (yesterday 50k)
Peru 39k (yesterday 36k)
India 38k (yesterday 36k)
Netherlands 36k (yesterday 36k)
Ⅱ. D.2. Impact: 92,000 new cases detected yesterday
Depending on the weather:
Title: Impact of Reported Cases / World: Evolution Since the Beginning of the Epidemic
Geographic:
By continent: soon more new cases in Russia than in Europe
By country
USA 27k (19k yesterday)
Russia 11k (11k yesterday)
Brazil 8k (11k yesterday)
Uk 6k (6k yesterday)
Peru 4k (4k yesterday)
India 3k (4kyesterday)
Spain 3k (3k yesterday)
France 1k (4k yesterday)
Pakistan, Singapore, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh,Belarus, Ukraine, Turkey, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, Ghana, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador: 1 to 2k
All the tables of our Data Analysis Expert, Carole Gabay, on the website: www.covidminute.com, in the “Resources” section.
III. TOMORROW
- What’s new in China
- Safe map of thestate of the countries that have deconfinated in Asia
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Meter) to protect yourself and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people (and nursing staff)
… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
- “Allsuccess is collective,”thanks to:
- The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb,) who are enabling this project to exist,
- The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his past contribution)
- The whole “Communication” team (Flavien, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
- All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the B Square Consulting Company, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
- We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
- If you feel like a patron or partner to fund IT development (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), please contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
- Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you … because it’s not the work that’s missing…!
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