Individual measurements (Mask, Hands, Meter) are becoming topical again in collective enclosed spaces.
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Minute Analysis:
1 / WORLDWIDE
Acceleration of the detection of new cases without parallelism on mortality: the detected cases (“dependent tests”) reach peaks (150-200k) in many countries (India…), but the daily mortality remains “stable” (less than 5000 deaths / day).
2 / FRANCE:
If the classic indicators (hospitalizations, resuscitation, death) continue their favorable evolution, let us remain vigilant (++), the virus is still circulating, but in a controlled manner:
- Hospitalizations: in total, 6,983 people are currently hospitalized due to Covid-19, i.e. 79 fewer / D4
- Resuscitation: the number of patients in intensive care is also decreasing: 492 currently.
- Always between 500 and 1000 new cases / day (see dependent tests): taking into account the relaxation of barrier gestures, the increase in positive cases (dependent test and currently around 1% of tested cases), the epidemic kinetics of countries with a similar winter climate, a renewed attention for the application of barrier gestures will be required.
- Note that in Germany, the number of new C + was 160 (13/7).
- Still a hundred existing clusters “under control”
- Let’s follow the territories in epidemic phase: Guyana (very young population) and Mayotte…
3 / EUROPE:
Vigilance as evidenced by the recent reconfiguration in Spain (partial), Israel (1500 new cases on 7/13 – for a population ten times smaller than France) and in certain other countries (Greece, Israel, Croatia …)
4 / THE COUNTRIES OF SOUTH EAST ASIA & OCEANIA: ALSO VIGILANCE
As shown in the mapping below (evolution of cumulative cases), several “countries” including Australia (partial closure of the Melbourne region for 6 weeks), Hong Kong (closure of all schools since 7/13) , India or the Philippines are currently in a rebound phase… However, as all the dependent test indicators are
5 / FRENCH ABROAD: THE TRIPLE PENALTY
-We note for the French Abroad, the “triple penalty” to return to France (case of Shanghai for example):
. Extremely rare flights: in the Chinese case, one flight per week
.. Cost of the ticket (at the time of social distancing: a traveler is 2 meters in circumference or 3 seats): 3kE instead (versus 1kE in normal times)
… Quarantine: strict on return and variable geometry on the outward journey.
6 / WORLD – LIVE COUNTRIES:
FOR A “COUNTRY ANALYSIS” OF YOUR CHOICE, GO TO COVIDFLOW (more than 195 Countries and States) – www.covidminute.com
6.1 Mapping of current official cases
6.2 Prevalence:
More cumulative cases in Latin America (2.3M) than in Europe
6.3 Impact: USA & “BrIcS”
6.4 USA – Current epicenter (25% of cases): the risk now comes from the South… and no longer from the East.
- This is the figure that President Trump uses to objectify the current strategy (number of deaths / day around 500).
- Epidemic particularly in the “Republican” South (Texas, Arizona, Florida / 10 k per day), because early opening (see economic reason and with the temperature effect) and dissemination of tests.
- Some of these states relaunch restrictive measures (California, Texas, etc.)
In terms of dynamics, the table below shows the states in control phase (top 10 at the top) and those where the epidemic is active (top 10 at the bottom).
6.5 Brazil:
cf. Covidflow on www.covidminute.com
6.6 India
cf. Covidflow on www.covidminute.com
7 / MORTALITY
80% of cases (and deaths) in the West (out of the 579 k deaths observed to date, roughly speaking: 200 k deaths in Europe, 140 k deaths in the USA, 74 k deaths in Brazil, 35 k deaths in Mexico,… )
Space-time evolution: an evolution allowing to understand the restrictive measures in the USA
3 Results indicator (to be read without making a shortcut too quickly!)
8 / TIME SPACE TABLES
9 / FRANCE ANALYSIS
I invite you to consult the thematic file 4France-by-region, a substantial work done with the collaboration of Carole Gabay, on the INSEE / Covid cross data of mortality from all causes compared (departments, age,…).
https://covidminute.com/les-dossiers-thematiques
Excess mortality by age group & region
See you next week (1 analysis per week)
Note that you can:
• download the visuals developed since the beginning of the adventure www.covidminute.com on https://covidminute.com/visuels-memos
• consult all the graphs / analyzes, updated with each article publication https://covidminute.com/les-dossiers-thematiques – France and China documents are updated every day except weekends for France, which has not published Covid data on weekends and public holidays since the end of June.
• browse the CovidFLow tool which continues to be updated daily for more than 200 countries and 50 states of the USA: https://covidminute.com/covid-flow
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 130 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaumez888@hotmail.com).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you
