I am thankful to the many companions of the road (more than 26!), who at one time or another have contributed, under my direction, to the development of this website.
Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides a first-of-the-art understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).
A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”.
Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît Rossignol,Gilles Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created for more than 100 days, are available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).
I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)
I.1 France D.Day – 25 days (cf incubation of the disease – 20 days) and Europe:
Health indicators present a favorable dynamic (hospitalizations, reanimation beds (-43), …): 2 regions under watch (IDF, Guyana), while learning to gradually “turn the page” …
What matters is the dynamics:
- Lockdown : one of the major measures
- Other assumptions explored to explain the slightest viral virulence:
Temperature and humidity
Immunite crosses (/ other coronavirus for example)
I.2 France is still 10 days behind Italy :
I.3 Europe: no second wave in countries who lifted restrictions before France
Note that some countries (Greece, Finland, Ireland,..) declare certain results only on a weekly basis.
I.4 World – size equation : still around 100k daily new cases reported
BRI always to watch and the USA (trend decline)
I.5 Let’s monitor Latin America in the epidemic phase (under probable declaration):
Brazil for about 60% of cases.
II. Analysis: The Foot needs to “spread” itself, and let’s see some elements of discussion:
I thank my friend Flavien Palero with whom I share the passion of the round ball, for his contribution.
II.1. The anti-Covid health processes will be hoped for the “transitional” so as not to “kill” players and spectators:
– Before matches: Medical test to start training (and avoid a new Cluster as in Bergamo)
-During the match: celebration of goals (remote!), wearing the mask on the bench, limiting or even absence of the 12th man (support them if ,…)
II.2. Show economics: a before and an after Covid
Because the 40 Professional Clubs in France are on the brink of financial abyss (few revenues for 3 months: March 1st-June 1st):
2.1 Revenues depend mainly on 3sources:
- 40% of TVrights,
- 20% for merchandising (swimsuits, sponsorship of equipment , and this while the communication budget of traditional media is likely to be impacted in priority. Note that the sponsorship pays off each year atx Clubs450M E.
- Stadiumilletterie des stades seats: 23k spectators on average for an L1 match with an average ticket of 20 Euros)
XXL salaries to be paid (60% of expenses):
II.3. Lack of earnings as a result of this case of “Major Force”?
Force Majeur If the season does not resume loss estimated at 300M E (KPMG)
Different elements are in negociatons following the unique and uncesorable episode of the Covid: with TV broadcasters, sports equipment (Adidas, Nike…) .
Similarly, the contracts will give rise to intense discussions (definition of the Major Force,… )
II.4. Economic players reposition themselves and sports equipment manufacturers try to resume the “consumer” offensive
According to a recent study(900 sports-related companies surveyed))
60% of the companies were looking to renegotiate their contract downwards.
- So the new Nike ad on the “come back” as a nod to Covid19 and the return to competition.
- It should be noted that Adidas’ profit fell by 97% in the first quarter of 2020 and that at the same time, Nike suffered a 20% loss in its revenue.
II.5. Recent movements observed in the Media: let’s follow the soon-to-be 50’s “TeleFoot”
a. Note the partnershipbetween the Sino-Spanish group Mediapro and TF1 to produce “Telefoot” (43 years of longevite):
The latter had been losing momentum for years (peaks. mainly when the EDF makes headlines). )
Mediapro has big ambitions,, and will broadcast the L1 and L2 matches from next season until 2024. Unknown still by the general public, this group recovered the rights in front of former “behemoths”:s : “Bein sports”, Canal, SFR Sport, RMC sport… «
b. During the Covid19 , L’Equipe offered a subscription at less than 90% of the usual price (all retrospectives are passed, … )
c. Purchase of “Sportfive” by Lagardère Sport
III. France: – An eye on the DOM-TOM
(Remind that New Caledonia has been CovidFree for more than a month), which evolve positively: let’s watch nevertheless, the Guyanne and Mayotte
IV. World: USA-Brazil-Russia-UK
Beware of certain figures (number of cases, deaths…) that are highly questionable because they vary from country to country (e.g. availability of tests), with measurement biases and therefore major under-reporting in some countries.
Prevalence: 3.3 M active cases confirmed for observation, 40% of which are in the US
IMPACT: 120,000 new cases detected yesterday
Detail space time vision:
V. COVID FLOW: India
Our “Covidminute” team provides you with the “Covidflow” interactive web pags (accessible on the link below), displaying multiple metrics on the epidemic for over 200 countries as well as the American states.
Keep in mind the “3M reflex” (Hands-Masques-Metre) to get protect and “reflex 4M” (Hands-Masques-Meter-… Minute) for frail people… but above all to protect the most vulnerable.
Confidence and solidarity for this collective struggle
Dr Guillaume ZAGURY
“All success is collective” thanks to:
o The entire “GCMN” (Global Covid Medical Network) “Medical” team: Dr. Bachir Athmani, Dr. Marc Abecassis, Dr. Mohamed Fadel, Dr. Emily Kara, Dr. Jean Michel Serfaty, Dr. Ibrahim Souare, Dr. Jonathan Taieb …) that allow this project to exist,
o The entire data analysis and IT team: Carole Gabay (“Data Analysis Expert”), Richard Coffre (exceptional webmaster), Flavien Palero (digital manager), Mathieu Bouquet (for his contribution passée)
o The whole “Communication” team (Flavien Palero, Laetitia, Marie, Alison…): without whom this project would not have been possible.
o All the historical financial patrons (Jérôme, Benjamin Denis and the Consulting Company B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnaud Bricout and TAG Advisory and Gilles Langourieux, Sabrina Rocca…) who work for “Citizen Actions”
o We also thank the Paul Benetot Foundation
If you feel like a patron or partner to fund development
computer (all the others have been volunteering for 88 days!), don’t hesitate to contact me (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Also, our team, although partly based in Shanghai, will be delighted to welcome you