A. France-Italy: same fight ?
1. How to compare?
The evolution of diagnosed cases is too random a data to serve as a basis for comparison, because this figure depends on the stock of available tests: a country which has fewer tests will mechanically detect fewer positive cases than a country able to test in large volumes.
We are therefore interested with Doctor Bachir Athmani in 2 much less questionable values: cases recorded in intensive care (indisputable) and deaths (potentially questionable depending on whether the cause of death is attributed to the indirect agent (the coronavirus) or the effector organ (comorbidity, including age, found in almost 99% of deaths).
To compare the two health systems in terms of curative resources, we study the evolution of the number of resuscitation cases and respective deaths from the 100th resuscitation case, in order to keep a visible scale and to compare “apples with apples” !
2. A “parallel” evolution (for mortality)
In Italy, there are 2 phases with initial local “confinement” (Lombardy then north of the country), then a second confinement on a national scale (March 9).
In France, containment was done at the national level from the start (March 17).
3. Mortality is often delayed by 2 to 3 weeks in the 2 countries
This trend corresponds to what had been observed in China in Hubei.
4. At the same stage of the epidemic, the cases in intensive care are much more numerous in France, and the number of deaths is slightly less
France has expanded its reception capacity by actively managing intensive care beds, the number of which ranges from 5,000 to 7,000 and then to 14,000.
4. It is still too early to extrapolate from the curve of foreseeable deaths in France
The Chinese model showed 5% of patients tested positive for covid-19 in intensive care, and +/- 40% of deaths among them (with advanced age and / or comorbidity in 99% of cases).
5. The French healthcare system is not yet saturated
6. Ultimately, the solution can only come from prevention
Hence the interest of a global preventive strategy, provided by our table “Covid score”.
NOTE: the epidemic is well covered by the French media on a daily basis. We now offer you our “minute diagrams” to make your own assessment of dynamic elements and trends, so as not to participate in over-information!
B. Daily update France D16 – In the wave
The elements below are to be read with the reservations concerning the validity of the data (case definition, possible underestimation, measurement bias, etc.) already mentioned above, and keeping in mind that these are the trends that count, rather than the raw figures taken at time t.
Daily update on Covid-19 in France (in France with the support of Dr Taieb in Paris)
1. Figures
52k cumulative confirmed cases by PCR tests. (+ 7,478 in 24 hours) – 10k outings / recoveries since the start of the epidemic in France.
22k hospitalized cases (+ 1811 cases in 24 hours).
767 resource health establishments.
5,565 cases in intensive care (+ 458 cases in 24 hours). 34% are less than 60 years old, 59% are between 60 and 80 years old and 68 people hospitalized in intensive care are less than 30 years old.
3,523 people died in hospitals (+ 499 people in 24 hours).
4,390 visits to hospital for suspected covid-19 yesterday: 38% were hospitalized and 5% were admitted directly to intensive care.
28,846 laboratory tests yesterday, of which 30% were positive.
2. Regions
In Ile de France, 14,362 cases identified (+1,271 in 24 hours), 2,037 patients in intensive care (+ 12%), 1,448 deaths in total.
According to the director of the AP-HP, “the number of patients treated is almost equal to the number of intensive care beds, to within a few units”.
In the French overseas departments and territories, there are 158 hospitalizations including 36 in intensive care, 49 return home and 10 deaths to date.
3. Others
25% of food markets will reopen in France, under strict health conditions
Rail traffic has reached a “floor” with 42 TGVs per day, against around 700 in normal times.
C. World view
Chart: evolution of the number of new cases per day (worldwide)
1. Italy
77k active cases in Italy (+2,107), 105k cumulative since the start.
More than 12k deaths linked to Covid-19 (837 new deaths in 24 hours).
More than 15k people healed from Covid-19 (+1 109 in 24 hours).
“Italy has reached the peak, but the peak is not a peak! It is a plateau from which we must now descend. Never give up” (Brusaferro, President of the ISS)
2. Spain
94,417 cases (cumulative) in Spain including 7,340 deaths. (+929 deaths in 24 hours).
2nd country most affected in terms of death.
3. United Kingdom
25,474 confirmed cases (cumulative) including 1,411 deaths (+382 deaths in 24 hours)
4. Germany
71,808 cases confirmed in Germany including 775 deaths (+ 130 deaths in 24 hours).
5. United States of America
188,530 (+ 25k in 24h) confirmed cases including 3,415 deaths (+840).
1st country most affected in terms of cases
A military hospital ship arrives in New York today. The USNS Comfort, 1,000 beds and 12 operating theaters, is intended to relieve New York hospitals of patients who do not require coronavirus-related care.
6. China
82,122 cumulative confirmed cases, including 3,304 deaths.
7. Rest of the World
179 countries affected.
823,479 confirmed cases, including 40,636 deaths. Over 70% of deaths are in Europe.
174,019 people healed.Virus Preventions 4 W’s:
Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch out for sick people, Wait for new updates from covidminute.com !
Protect yourselves, and above all protect the most vulnerable!
Dr. Guillaume ZAGURY,
Specialist in Public Health and Health Innovations
Consultant at “Health Innovations”
HEC
In China for 20 years“All success is collective”, thanks to:
– the whole “Back Up” team (Mathieu Bousquet, Carole Gabay, Flavien, Marie, Laetitia, Anne-Sophie, …), without whom this project would not have been possible.
– all the “Medical” team (Dr Bachir Athmani, Dr Ibrahim Souare, Dr Taieb, Dr Viateur …) who allow this project to exist,
– all historical financial sponsors (Jerome, Benjamin Denis & B Square, Benoit Rossignol, Arnault Bricout) who work for “Citizen Actions”
If you feel like a patron or of partners to finance IT development, don’t hesitate to contact me (guillaume@covidminute.com).
Also, even if part of the team is based in Shanghai, do not hesitate to come and join us, because there is no shortage of work :-)If you want to find more analyses and infographics, follow our account at:Know the latest updates
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