USA: Red in blue (watch out for statistical biases!)

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Beware of shortcuts: thus, the Democratic states are mostly those of the big cities connected, and therefore more even to present an epidemic balance more “nuance” compared to those of the “South” and “Middle West” American ….

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Dr. Guillaume Zagury, based in Shanghai, a specialist in international public health and health innovations, comments for the Community on a day-to-day basis on the evolution of the epidemic for more than three months, and provides  a first-of-the-art  understanding on its “country and region analysis” and predictable consequences (experiments of SARS in 2003 and Covid-19 in China).

A remarkable multidisciplinary volunteer team allows the realization of this analysis which is intended to be factual and objective (by the way, do not hesitate to join us: mail below):”every success is collective”.”. 

Beyond the volunteer skills, this project was made possible by the support of our citizens’ vision patrons: the Paul Bennetot Foundation (Matmut Foundation under the aegis of the Foundation of the Future), B Square, Tag Advisory, Daxue Consulting, as well as various fellow travelers (Jérôme, Dr. Benoît  Rossignol,Gilles  Langourieux,…)
All our illustrations created  for more than 100 days, are available to you on our website and you can download a large part of them. (www.covidminute.com).

I. COVID 360 “MINUTE”: graphs and maps (80% of the information)

I.1 France – all indicators to the green (except for Mayotte and Guyane) for the 2nd Ocean power.

Hospitalizations 10.881 C (the 10,000 C+ hospitalizations mark should be quickly crossed)

Reanimation: 869  C+ beds 

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I.2 Europe: no second wave in countries who lifted restrictions before France

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Note that some countries (Greece, Finland, Ireland…) declare certain results only randomly.

I.3 CHINA:

A cluster in the largest market in Beijing (55 cases out of 500 tests) but we are far from a second wave or a rebound effect. Drastic measures are under way. To follow…

I.4 World – 8 Million historical cases reported since January 1, and still about one third under observation.

4.1 Prevalence C (+)  current “official”

4.1.1  Geographic  Vision:  

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4.1.2   Timeline:

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Geographic distribution of C(+) by time

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4.2 Incidence:

Let’s also monitor the Indian subcontinent.

Timeline – more than 120k new cases reported per day

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Geographic Vision – USA and Brazil: same fight with 20,000 new daily cases officially declared for almost a month (Brazil)

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I.5 USA: What’s up?

To know that the final balance sheet will be considered to be roughly double that of the peak level (see Gauss curve); however, the notion of the peak in the USA is not yet clear.

I.5.1 An encouraging element: the number of daily deaths

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5.2 Nevertheless to be qualified…

…because the number of new official cases/day is still very high (20,000/dr): Time-space vision:

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I.5.3 In terms of mortality:

Attention to the use of outcome indicators (such as: number deaths/Million habitant) or a non-specialist quickly shortened the observation of a correlation with causality …

Note about 8 million “declared” cases and 435 k deces, or 5% of “declare” cases. This figure does not take into account all undeclared cases (lack of available tests, cases with little or no symptomatic, etc.), which should bring lethality levels back to around 1% in the absence of saturation of the health system.

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I.5.4 Deathly combines:

“Western” countries in the first line (up to 85% of official cases)

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6 USA:

States in epidemic growth phase … as much red as blue ….and this despite a time of containment sometimes important …

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…. To learn more: www.covidminute.com,with all the iconographic base and the tool Covidflow allowing to have all types of information (Country, US state,…) has hand.

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Thursday: the point in Latin America